Sunday, December 01, 2013

Monthly Tracking Portfolio - November 23rd, 2012

November 23rd 2012 Monthly Tracking Portfolio

Another month has zipped by. As my faithful readers know, I have been tracking the Magic Formula Stocks as described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats the Stock Market since January 2006.  Every month I take the top 50 stocks over $100m market cap from his website and track how that portfolio of stocks fares versus the Russell 3000 for the next 12 months.  It has been an uphill struggle as the tracking portfolios have under-performed, driven in part by Chinese reverse merger fiascos, for-profit education stocks and home health care stocks all being proverbial albatrosses.

 Fearless readers will recall we had a 29 month "losing streak"..  This month-end extended the winning streak to 6! It went up an excellent 45.7 %,stomping the R3K, which was up a less excellent 32.1%!  I will note that this portfolio ran an extra week as I like to start a new one the last Friday of every month. Here are the 50 stocks in descending performance order:

Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change  52 week low   Mkt Cap 
GTAT                3.36             9.81 192.0%                 2.61           400
SAVE              16.85           45.87 172.2%                16.47         1,222
CPLA              27.42           65.72 139.7%                26.96           351
ESI              17.00           38.99 129.4%                11.69           397
QCOR              25.72           58.01 125.5%                24.56         1,543
EXPR              12.21           24.61 101.6%                13.70         1,059
WCRX              11.55           22.93 98.5%                10.85         2,993
RPXC                8.80           16.52 87.7%                 8.60           459
STX              26.20           49.04 87.2%                25.16       10,533
GME              26.16           48.25 84.4%                22.30         3,273
DLX              28.76           49.69 72.8%                28.62         1,500
UIS              16.36           27.47 67.9%                15.68           718
JCOM              28.61           47.97 67.7%                29.70         1,317
USNA              43.98           73.11 66.2%                30.51           638
SAI              10.55           17.42 65.1%                  N/A          3,974
RTN              54.35           88.68 63.2%                52.24       18,546
AFAM              17.42           27.90 60.2%                17.66           179
HSII              11.40           18.24 60.0%                12.20           212
CA              21.34           33.00 54.6%                21.67       10,122
DELL                9.31           13.86 48.9%                 8.69       16,560
PETS              10.61           15.78 48.7%                10.69           222
VG                2.24             3.31 47.8%                 2.25           499
LPS              24.11           35.11 45.6%                21.23         2,078
POZN                5.43             7.90 45.5%                 4.26           164
MSFT              26.89           38.13 41.8%                26.26     233,289
NATR              13.55           19.19 41.6%                12.91           238
USMO              10.53           14.69 39.5%                10.94           241
APOL              18.86           26.29 39.4%                15.98         2,117
PDLI                7.03             9.77 39.0%                 6.50         1,441
AGX              17.39           23.45 34.8%                13.90           248
BAH              13.08           17.49 33.7%                12.51         1,918
NTI              19.17           25.40 32.5%                17.83           403
TZOO              17.28           21.48 24.3%                17.42           274
GNI              60.03           73.68 22.7%                61.50           107
VCI              24.67           29.36 19.0%                23.69         1,006
MANT              24.27           28.77 18.5%                23.20           928
KLIC              10.68           12.62 18.2%                10.08           792
CSCO              18.29           21.25 16.2%                18.95     100,059
HFC              42.66           47.98 12.5%                38.98         9,257
MSB              20.91           22.30 6.6%                17.07           295
DMRC              17.65           18.73 6.1%                17.92           128
CF            207.90         217.38 4.6%              169.33       13,210
BDSI                4.77             4.80 0.6%                 3.52           146
INTX                8.05             7.74 -3.9%                 7.71           157
TNAV                7.51             7.04 -6.3%                 4.91           309
IDCC              39.60           33.89 -14.4%                31.83         1,695
NSU                4.27             3.27 -23.4%                 2.65           881
STRA              49.44           37.15 -24.9%                36.50           587
EGY                8.09             6.05 -25.2%                 5.03           468
POOSF                5.19                -   -100.0%                     -             420

This is the first tracking portfolio in decades (ok maybe not that long) where the For profit Education Stocks were NOT a drag.  The 4 of them were up on average by a whopping 71%. And there were six stocks up 100% or more (including GTAT).  I do think things are continuing to change.  You can see that in the next table!

Here is a listing of every portfolio I have tracked:

Average of Percent Change  
Date Total IWV
1/6/2006 16.0% 10.9%
2/17/2006 21.2% 14.6%
3/29/2006 13.0% 9.6%
4/7/2006 10.3% 12.1%
5/12/2006 20.4% 18.6%
5/31/2006 29.2% 23.3%
6/30/2006 22.4% 20.0%
7/31/2006 19.7% 17.3%
8/31/2006 13.0% 13.3%
9/28/2006 12.7% 14.6%
10/27/2006 10.3% 12.0%
11/29/2006 -0.3% 4.8%
12/28/2006 -6.9% 3.4%
1/26/2007 -10.2% -6.6%
2/27/2007 -3.7% -1.0%
3/26/2007 -9.8% -5.5%
4/27/2007 -10.9% -5.0%
5/29/2007 -11.5% -6.3%
7/3/2007 -30.0% -15.6%
7/30/2007 -19.9% -11.5%
8/30/2007 -12.5% -8.7%
9/27/2007 -19.0% -18.2%
11/2/2007 -40.4% -34.3%
11/28/2007 -40.1% -38.3%
12/28/2007 -36.3% -40.0%
1/25/2008 -36.4% -35.9%
2/26/2008 -51.7% -41.5%
3/24/2008 -40.9% -36.8%
4/25/2008 -25.6% -31.0%
5/28/2008 -22.2% -33.6%
7/2/2008 -11.7% -25.3%
7/29/2008 -10.5% -20.9%
8/29/2008 -13.8% -17.9%
9/26/2008 -4.3% -10.0%
10/31/2008 18.7% 13.9%
11/26/2008 50.9% 27.7%
12/26/2008 48.9% 32.3%
1/23/2009 59.3% 36.4%
2/27/2009 92.8% 55.6%
3/27/2009 85.8% 48.1%
4/24/2009 69.7% 45.8%
5/29/2009 31.8% 22.8%
6/29/2009 21.3% 24.0%
7/29/2009 19.5% 15.9%
8/28/2009 7.4% 8.8%
9/25/2009 12.6% 12.4%
10/30/2009 22.7% 18.3%
11/27/2009 24.3% 13.6%
12/31/2009 23.7% 18.1%
1/22/2010 19.0% 20.6%
2/26/2010 18.6% 23.6%
3/25/2010 10.0% 15.4%
4/23/2010 7.1% 11.4%
5/28/2010 19.3% 25.4%
6/29/2010 16.7% 25.7%
7/29/2010 5.4% 20.1%
9/2/2010 7.3% 10.1%
9/24/2010 -4.3% 0.3%
10/29/2010 -2.9% 10.4%
11/26/2010 -8.5% 1.4%
1/3/2011 -11.4% 0.1%
1/28/2011 -7.6% 4.9%
2/25/2011 -5.5% 5.0%
3/24/2011 -4.4% 7.4%
4/21/2011 -16.0% 3.2%
5/27/2011 -12.0% -0.4%
6/24/2011 -9.5% 5.0%
7/29/2011 -4.3% 8.1%
8/26/2011 12.0% 21.6%
9/30/2011 23.5% 29.6%
10/28/2011 0.4% 11.5%
11/25/2011 13.9% 24.0%
12/29/2011 9.9% 15.9%
1/27/2012 7.4% 16.6%
2/24/2012 7.8% 13.3%
3/23/2012 9.1% 15.2%
4/27/2012 10.5% 15.3%
5/25/2012 26.5% 27.5%
6/22/2012 26.1% 24.6%
7/27/2012 30.4% 25.7%
8/24/2012 26.0% 19.8%
9/28/2012 39.3% 22.1%
10/26/2012 48.3% 28.9%
11/23/2012 45.7% 32.1%
12/31/2012 48.9% 29.4%
1/25/2013 41.4% 22.5%
2/22/2013 40.3% 21.3%
3/28/2013 38.0% 16.7%
4/26/2013 28.8% 16.0%
5/24/2013 21.3% 11.2%
6/28/2013 20.5% 13.2%
7/29/2013 13.0% 8.0%
8/30/2013 12.2% 11.0%
9/27/2013 8.6% 6.5%
10/25/2013 3.7% 2.3%

As noted, this is the sixth straight portfolio to win after 29 straight losses! (that is hard to do... it ain't random).  However ALL 11 open portfolios are leading the Russell 3000 (by an average of more than 11 points.

Subsets

I also keep 2 subsets of the larger portfolios:  (1) dividend stocks (those with a yield per Yahoo of at least 2.6%) and (2) new stocks (those new to the tracking portfolios in past 12 months.  The dividend portfolio was most excellent, up about 37.5%.  The new portfolio was solid okay, up 35.9%.  Finally, I like to track cash as it is more "honest" than percentages as if you go up by 25% and then down by 25%, that is a different result than up by 5% then down by 5%.  So I track what you would have to day if you had spread $100,000 over the first twelve portfolios evenly.

Category Value
Total   167,823
Total New   170,030
Total Dividend   381,965
Total Russell 3K   164,019

I am sure my eagle eyed readers have noted that the "Total" is now beating the Russell 3000 total.  It has been a long and arduous road, but MFI (by my measure) is officially  beating the benchmark!

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