Monday, December 02, 2013

Giant Holding

Well, I did pull the trigger on a transaction today.  I increased my stake in GA by 40% at $11.16.  My thought is that they have a buy out offer at $11.75, plus an upcoming dividend at 23 cents in a week.  I think at the worst I make 6% on the trade, with potential upside should the bid get increased (as it was recently with RDA).  GA has formed a group to review the bid (Giant Interactive Announces Formation of Special Committee And Retention of Special Committee Legal Counsel).  They need to be careful not to show favoritism.  There is potential for other parties being brought to the table.  The risk is that the offer gets withdrawn, but my view is the offer is so low that the Chairman is not likely to take it back.

So with my two MFI tranches and now this position, GA has vaulted to my third largest holding, behind GTAT and GNW.

Stock Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Gain per Share Pct Gain Pct of Portfolio
GTAT          3.39                   9.94                 -                6.55 193.2% 6.8%
GNW          7.10                 15.40                 -                8.30 116.8% 6.7%
GA          8.68                 11.16             0.14              2.63 30.3% 5.3%
CSCO       17.34                 21.09             0.96              4.71 27.2% 4.5%
HIMX          8.94                 10.01                 -                1.07 12.0% 4.4%
KLIC       11.25                 12.26                 -                1.01 9.0% 4.3%
INTC       22.25                 23.70             1.20              2.64 11.9% 4.3%
BBEP       16.13                 18.87             0.73              3.48 21.6% 4.3%
AOD          3.96                   4.07             0.19              0.30 7.5% 4.2%
ABR          6.72                   6.57             0.13            (0.02) -0.4% 3.9%
CSQ          8.58                 10.72             1.45              3.60 41.9% 3.5%
TCRD       14.73                 16.68             0.42              2.37 16.1% 3.4%
TGONF       10.27                 10.00             0.19            (0.08) -0.8% 3.4%
SBS          9.54                 10.18                 -                0.64 6.7% 3.1%
NUS       41.94              125.01             1.20            84.27 200.9% 2.9%
TC-PT       15.39                 15.00             1.02              0.63 4.1% 2.9%
IP       46.55                 46.79             0.35              0.59 1.3% 2.7%
CS       28.75                 29.80                 -                1.05 3.7% 2.6%
RPXC       16.54                 16.62                 -                0.08 0.5% 2.6%
CF     185.70              217.01             1.38            32.69 17.6% 2.4%
HIG-WT       21.24                 27.08                 -                5.84 27.5% 2.2%
BAC-WTA          5.35                   6.61                 -                1.26 23.6% 1.9%
RDA          9.74                 17.60             0.10              7.97 81.8% 1.8%
STRZA       16.06                 27.81                 -              11.75 73.2% 1.7%
AGX       15.60                 22.83             0.75              7.98 51.2% 1.6%
SYNA       48.01                 50.27                 -                2.26 4.7% 1.5%
AVG       17.22                 17.07                 -              (0.15) -0.9% 1.4%
ATVI       17.71                 17.33                 -              (0.38) -2.1% 1.4%
FLR       66.06                 77.92             0.32            12.18 18.4% 1.3%
CA       25.07                 32.87             1.00              8.79 35.1% 1.3%
OIBAX          4.98                   6.06             1.88              2.96 59.5% 1.2%
AAPL     450.60              551.23             8.75          109.38 24.3% 1.2%
NVDA       13.85                 15.75             0.24              2.14 15.4% 1.1%
O       20.29                 37.86          14.83            32.40 159.7% 1.1%
CYOU       29.24                 28.17                 -              (1.07) -3.7% 0.9%

In other news, I watched a terrific video by Joel Greenblatt today

(Greenblatt: Patience--the Secret to Value Investing).

In watching it, I think I had a bit of an "aha" moment.  I have really been struggling with my 27% cash position.  Then while watching the video, I saw that he is running a 50 to 60% net long fund (GARIX).  His approach is to use MFI and go long the stocks that rank the highest, but at the same time go short the stocks that rank the worst.  So theoretically, should the market crash evenly, its fall will be dampened by being only 50 to 60% long.  And should the crash hit over valued stocks (like Linked In or many of the bio tech stocks with no profits) harder, I might not even go down that much.  I tried a fund like this once before, but did not like it.  But I think with Greenblatt as the brains behind this one, I can put a sizable chunk in it and just let time work its compounding magic.  If I go with this fund, I will likely not include it in my portfolios I track here, though I might comment on its performance once a quarter or so.

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