Saturday, December 14, 2013

Weekend Update - Let It Snow!

Looks like we will be getting a pretty good dumping today and tonight.  We are right on the fringe of 4 to 8 and 8 to 12 inches.  We usually seem to get more than surrounding areas, so I am predicting 9 inches.  Might be a good weekend to have our first fire.

I will likely try and get out today and do a little Christmas shopping, snow or no snow.  I bought a few things online this week, but there is still work to be done!

This past week was not exactly one for the record books.  I keep waiting for the Santa Claus Rally that seems to be a bit tardy this year.  And then as I mentioned the other day, MFI seems to be not quite as good of late.  Here is my table showing MFI results by year and in total.

Annual Inception to Date
Year Russell MFI Russell ITD MFI ITD
2006 11.40% 15.03% 11.40% 15.03%
2007 4.09% -6.69% 15.96% 7.34%
2008 -37.05% -37.97% -27.00% -33.42%
2009 32.51% 45.18% -3.27% -3.34%
2010 18.38% 22.77% 14.50% 18.67%
2011 -0.56% -10.47% 13.87% 6.25%
2012 16.38% 9.70% 32.52% 16.56%
2013 27.46% 44.09% 68.90% 67.94%

You may recall that MFI had moved officially ahead in total of IWV a month or so ago.  Well, they have given the lead back, though granted it is a tight race.  I will be reconstituting the MFI Index here in about 2 weeks.  As a refresher, I create it every year as close to the first day of the new year that I can.

Dividend Portfolio

I ee a lot of people predicting out-performance for INTC and CSCO in 2014.  I certainly hope that is true as they are big positions in my dividend portfolio and have been struggling of late.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD       21,206            3.96             4.08        4,024.45 7.8% 15.4% -7.6%
BBEP         4,675          16.13           19.48        3,422.22 25.3% 6.9% 18.5%
CSCO         4,389          17.34           20.24        4,219.92 22.3% 34.2% -11.9%
CSQ         6,631            8.58           10.55      10,064.51 40.7% 44.5% -3.8%
INTC         3,754          22.25           24.29        4,490.84 14.5% 28.1% -13.6%
O             580          20.29           38.25        8,597.27 161.6% 103.2% 58.5%
OIBAX         4,070            4.98             6.10        7,739.02 60.6% 107.5% -46.9%
SBS         6,211            9.54           10.26                     -   7.5% 5.5% 2.1%
TC-PT         4,000          15.39           12.45        4,061.80 -12.5% 12.7% -25.2%
TGONF         7,000          10.27             9.75        1,317.50 -3.3% 8.6% -11.9%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open            47,938 17.2% 24.0% -6.7%
Closed 12.9% 10.3% 2.6%
Combined 13.5% 12.3% 1.2%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 16.8%
2013 Gain 15.0%

Recently,  BBEP has really been my only "go-to" stock in this portfolio.

MFI Portfolio

As I have mentioned before, this portfolio continues to do great and I am thinking hard about directing more funds at it in 2014.  I would just like to find a decent entry point.

2/1/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $450.60 $554.43 $8.75 25.0% 20.0%
GA $6.10 $11.07 $0.65 92.2% 20.0%
STRZA $16.06 $27.41 $0.00 70.7% 20.0%
CA $25.07 $32.34 $1.00 33.0% 20.0%
NUS $41.94 $129.94 $1.20 212.7% 20.0%
Totals 86.7% 20.0%
5/6/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
KLIC $11.40 $12.42 $0.00 8.9% 12.0%
CYOU $29.24 $29.85 $0.00 2.1% 12.0%
RDA $9.74 $17.38 $0.10 79.6% 12.0%
NVDA $13.85 $15.02 $0.24 10.1% 12.0%
CF $183.97 $225.55 $1.80 23.6% 12.0%
Totals 24.9% 12.0%
8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $225.55 $1.00 21.0% 7.9%
FLR $66.06 $74.79 $0.32 13.7% 7.9%
AGX $15.60 $26.42 $0.75 74.2% 7.9%
KLIC $11.29 $12.42 $0.00 10.0% 7.9%
RPXC $15.92 $16.16 $0.00 1.5% 7.9%
Totals 24.1% 7.9%
11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $16.51 $0.00 -4.1% -0.9%
ATVI $17.71 $16.77 $0.00 -5.3% -0.9%
GA $9.04 $11.07 $0.23 25.0% -0.9%
RPXC $17.04 $16.16 $0.00 -5.2% -0.9%
SYNA $48.01 $49.47 $0.00 3.0% -0.9%
Totals 2.7% -0.9%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment   25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 24.1% 2.7% 86.7% 24.9% 34.2%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 43.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9%
MFI Overall Gain 41.5% 47.6% 86.7% 24.9% 50.2%
Current Balance   35,379       36,905     46,675      31,216    150,175
R3K Current Tranche 7.9% 36.7% 20.0% 12.0% 19.2%
R3K Overall Gain 31.7% 36.7% 20.0% 12.0% 25.1%
R3K Balance   32,937       34,170     30,011      28,009    125,127
Annualized IRR 29.8% 43.4% 105.5% 44.0% 55.7%

I am proud of the newer tranches.  August is up a very nice 24.1%.  To put that in perspective,  if I had just kept the same five stocks that rolled off in August 2013, they are up a respectable 16.2% (UIS and KFY the big winners).  The 13 stocks I considered but did not buy are up 8.6% (IQNT is up 45%, STX is up 26% and WNR is up 23% but CVI is down 9%).

November is up 2.7% for me, my November 2012 run off is up 1.3% and the 18 rejects are down a composite 1.1% (LQDT is down 25%; while GTIV and SIMO are the winners, each up about 11%).

Discretionary Portfolio

Big adds this week with ATHM.

Stock Gain Cost Price
GTAT 53.2%           5.23           8.02
GNW 110.6%           7.10         14.96
HIMX 22.6%           8.94         10.96
ATHM -1.0%         28.80         28.50
CS 2.0%         28.75         29.31
HIG-WT 24.2%         21.24         26.37
KLIC 11.4%         11.15         12.42
BAC-WTA 21.5%           5.35           6.50
GA 1.3%         11.16         11.07
TC -2.3%           2.19           2.14

At some point, I will definitely wind down GA, TC and ATHM.  I view the other stocks as holding for longer term.  HIMX may be a bit on the bubble as I already have a pretty rapid 22% gain on what was a pretty sizable purchase.

Ranking of Holdings

Here are all my holdings in descending order of size:

Stock Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Gain per Share Pct Gain Pct of Portfolio
GTAT          5.23                   8.02                 -                2.79 53.2% 8.5%
GNW          7.10                 14.96                 -                7.86 110.6% 6.8%
GA          8.68                 11.07             0.37              2.77 31.9% 5.4%
HIMX          8.94                 10.96                 -                2.02 22.6% 5.0%
INTC       22.25                 24.29             1.20              3.23 14.5% 4.6%
BBEP       16.13                 19.48             0.73              4.09 25.3% 4.6%
KLIC       11.25                 12.42                 -                1.17 10.4% 4.5%
CSCO       17.34                 20.24             0.96              3.86 22.3% 4.5%
AOD          3.96                   4.08             0.19              0.31 7.8% 4.3%
ATHM       28.80                 28.50                 -              (0.30) -1.0% 4.3%
CSQ          8.58                 10.55             1.52              3.50 40.8% 3.5%
TGONF       10.27                   9.75             0.19            (0.33) -3.3% 3.4%
SBS          9.54                 10.26                 -                0.72 7.5% 3.2%
NUS       41.94              129.94             1.20            89.20 212.7% 3.1%
CS       28.75                 29.31                 -                0.56 2.0% 2.7%
RPXC       16.54                 16.16                 -              (0.38) -2.3% 2.6%
CF     185.70              225.55             1.38            41.23 22.2% 2.6%
TC-PT       15.39                 12.45             1.02            (1.92) -12.5% 2.5%
HIG-WT       21.24                 26.37                 -                5.13 24.2% 2.2%
AGX       15.60                 26.42             0.75            11.57 74.2% 2.0%
BAC-WTA          5.35                   6.50                 -                1.15 21.5% 2.0%
RDA          9.74                 17.38             0.10              7.75 79.6% 1.8%
STRZA       16.06                 27.41                 -              11.35 70.7% 1.7%
TC          2.19                   2.14                 -              (0.05) -2.3% 1.6%
SYNA       48.01                 49.47                 -                1.46 3.0% 1.5%
AVG       17.22                 16.51                 -              (0.71) -4.1% 1.4%
ATVI       17.71                 16.77                 -              (0.94) -5.3% 1.4%
CA       25.07                 32.34             1.00              8.26 33.0% 1.3%
FLR       66.06                 74.79             0.32              9.05 13.7% 1.3%
OIBAX          4.98                   6.10             1.90              3.01 60.4% 1.3%
AAPL     450.60              554.43             8.75          112.58 25.0% 1.2%
O       20.29                 38.25          14.83            32.79 161.6% 1.1%
NVDA       13.85                 15.02             0.24              1.41 10.1% 1.1%
CYOU       29.24                 29.85                 -                0.61 2.1% 1.0%

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