Sunday, December 29, 2013

Weekend Update - Live From New Hampshire

Weekend In New Hampshire

Brought the family up to New Hampshire (in the White Mountains) for a little down time.  Listening to a little Lyle Lovett, got a roaring fire going, all I am missing is some coffee.  I will get working on that.  Am fighting a bit of a sore throat, hope it does not get worse.

We did spend yesterday having a little Breaking Bad marathon.  I downloaded seasons 3 & 4 on my iPad (we do not have cable in New Hampshire).  Great, great series.

Looks like we will be getting a little weather here today.  There is a winter storm warning, expecting 4 to 8 inches, with up to 10 inches at higher elevations.  Should be good skiing on Monday.  Weather can get a little extreme here near Mt Washington. Later this week it is supposed to drop to -17.  Finally (seems appropriate) we watched the Disney movie Frozen yesterday.  I would definitely recommend.  Nice story with a couple plot twists and some very good music.

MFI Portfolio

Just two trading days left in the year.  My MFI portfolio continues its astounding out-performance. It is up 54.23% and recall at the start of the year it was only 50% invested.  I started my February and May tranches in 2013.  The table below really tells the month by month story of out-performance:

Date Differential
12/1/2012 -2.20%
1/1/2013 -1.78%
2/1/2013 -2.26%
3/1/2013 -2.23%
4/1/2013 -0.43%
5/1/2013 2.00%
6/1/2013 4.75%
7/1/2013 4.29%
8/1/2013 6.91%
9/1/2013 10.46%
10/1/2013 19.67%
11/1/2013 19.75%
12/1/2013 23.70%
Current 27.49%

I have to say that there are times I look at this table and wonder if I have a calculation error.  Just this month, four more points of out-performance (recall this table is the difference between MFI and R3K).  Here is the table showing absolute and relative performance by tranche:

2/1/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $450.60 $560.09 $8.75 26.2% 24.6%
GA $6.10 $11.27 $0.65 95.5% 24.6%
STRZA $16.06 $29.02 $0.00 80.7% 24.6%
CA $25.07 $33.43 $1.00 37.3% 24.6%
NUS $41.94 $137.01 $1.20 229.5% 24.6%
Totals 93.9% 24.6%
5/6/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
KLIC $11.40 $13.22 $0.00 16.0% 16.3%
CYOU $29.24 $31.59 $0.00 8.0% 16.3%
RDA $9.74 $17.97 $0.10 85.6% 16.3%
NVDA $13.85 $15.76 $0.24 15.5% 16.3%
CF $183.97 $231.13 $1.80 26.6% 16.3%
Totals 30.3% 16.3%
8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $231.13 $1.00 24.0% 12.0%
FLR $66.06 $79.76 $0.32 21.2% 12.0%
AGX $15.60 $27.03 $0.75 78.1% 12.0%
KLIC $11.29 $13.22 $0.00 17.1% 12.0%
RPXC $15.92 $17.01 $0.00 6.8% 12.0%
Totals 29.4% 12.0%
11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $16.85 $0.00 -2.1% 2.9%
ATVI $17.71 $17.82 $0.00 0.6% 2.4%
GA $9.04 $11.27 $0.23 27.3% 2.4%
RPXC $17.04 $17.01 $0.00 -0.2% 2.4%
SYNA $48.01 $50.43 $0.00 5.0% 2.4%
Totals 6.1% 2.5%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment   25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 29.4% 6.1% 93.9% 30.3% 39.6%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 43.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8%
MFI Overall Gain 47.6% 52.5% 93.9% 30.3% 56.1%
Current Balance   36,909       38,135     48,463      32,586    156,093
R3K Current Tranche 12.0% 36.7% 24.6% 16.3% 22.4%
R3K Overall Gain 36.8% 36.7% 24.6% 16.3% 28.6%
R3K Balance   34,201       34,170     31,154      29,080    128,605
Annualized IRR 32.8% 45.7% 107.4% 50.3% 59.1%

You can see each tranche has had at least one superstar (NUSRDAAGX and GA).  I do find it a bit interesting that three of those have pretty significant Chinese exposure.

Discretionary Portfolio

Kind of highlighted this one already, so I will simply repeat the table:

Stock Gain Cost Price R3K Gain
GTAT 63.7%           5.23           8.57 9.0%
GNW 118.3%           7.10         15.51 37.4%
HIMX 50.4%           8.94         13.45 4.6%
ATHM 21.2%         28.80         34.91 3.2%
CS 7.8%         28.75         30.98 3.5%
KLIC 18.6%         11.15         13.22 16.4%
HIG-WT 29.9%         21.24         27.60 12.4%
BAC-WTA 20.2%           5.35           6.43 16.9%
GA 3.0%         11.16         11.27 2.1%
Grand Total 44.0% 11.1%

The 21% gain in ATHM has been sweet.  My plan was to hold that for 4 to 6 weeks.  But with the sharp spike, I may sell by the end of the week (and at least push my ST CG into 2014 tax year).

Dividend Portfolio

Continues to under perform.  That being said, I have enjoyed the income stream. It feels like mad money.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD       21,206            3.96             4.19        4,533.38 11.2% 19.3% -8.1%
BBEP         4,675          16.13           20.28        3,422.22 30.3% 10.5% 19.8%
CSCO         4,389          17.34           22.02        4,219.92 32.5% 38.7% -6.2%
CSQ         6,631            8.58           10.99      10,064.51 45.8% 49.3% -3.5%
INTC         3,754          22.25           25.60        4,490.84 20.4% 32.4% -12.0%
O             580          20.29           37.86        8,597.27 159.7% 110.0% 49.7%
OIBAX         4,070            4.98             6.08        7,739.02 60.2% 114.5% -54.3%
SBS         6,211            9.54           11.45                     -   20.0% 9.0% 11.0%
TC-PT         4,000          15.39           13.10        4,061.80 -8.3% 16.5% -24.7%
TGONF         7,000          10.27             9.94        1,317.50 -1.4% 12.3% -13.7%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open            48,446 22.8% 28.1% -5.4%
Closed 12.9% 10.3% 2.6%
Combined 14.3% 12.9% 1.4%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 17.6%
2013 Gain 18.4%

Here are my Divvies by year by quarter.  The fourth quarter had a spike as one of my mutual funds I do not discuss much (and is not part of my active tracking) paid a one time annual distribution of $10,600 (using my factor).



Finally, here is graph showing my overall YTD performance.  Been quite a sharp upturn here with Santa rally.  As you will note, I am up by about 45%.  I took a look and I was up almost 18% last year, so that is back to back solid years.  In 2011 I was positive, but just a couple percent.




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