Weekend Update - Live From New Hampshire

Weekend In New Hampshire

Brought the family up to New Hampshire (in the White Mountains) for a little down time.  Listening to a little Lyle Lovett, got a roaring fire going, all I am missing is some coffee.  I will get working on that.  Am fighting a bit of a sore throat, hope it does not get worse.

We did spend yesterday having a little Breaking Bad marathon.  I downloaded seasons 3 & 4 on my iPad (we do not have cable in New Hampshire).  Great, great series.

Looks like we will be getting a little weather here today.  There is a winter storm warning, expecting 4 to 8 inches, with up to 10 inches at higher elevations.  Should be good skiing on Monday.  Weather can get a little extreme here near Mt Washington. Later this week it is supposed to drop to -17.  Finally (seems appropriate) we watched the Disney movie Frozen yesterday.  I would definitely recommend.  Nice story with a couple plot twists and some very good music.

MFI Portfolio

Just two trading days left in the year.  My MFI portfolio continues its astounding out-performance. It is up 54.23% and recall at the start of the year it was only 50% invested.  I started my February and May tranches in 2013.  The table below really tells the month by month story of out-performance:

Date	Differential
12/1/2012	-2.20%
1/1/2013	-1.78%
2/1/2013	-2.26%
3/1/2013	-2.23%
4/1/2013	-0.43%
5/1/2013	2.00%
6/1/2013	4.75%
7/1/2013	4.29%
8/1/2013	6.91%
9/1/2013	10.46%
10/1/2013	19.67%
11/1/2013	19.75%
12/1/2013	23.70%
Current	27.49%

I have to say that there are times I look at this table and wonder if I have a calculation error.  Just this month, four more points of out-performance (recall this table is the difference between MFI and R3K).  Here is the table showing absolute and relative performance by tranche:

2/1/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$450.60	$560.09	$8.75	26.2%	24.6%
GA	$6.10	$11.27	$0.65	95.5%	24.6%
STRZA	$16.06	$29.02	$0.00	80.7%	24.6%
CA	$25.07	$33.43	$1.00	37.3%	24.6%
NUS	$41.94	$137.01	$1.20	229.5%	24.6%
Totals				93.9%	24.6%
5/6/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
KLIC	$11.40	$13.22	$0.00	16.0%	16.3%
CYOU	$29.24	$31.59	$0.00	8.0%	16.3%
RDA	$9.74	$17.97	$0.10	85.6%	16.3%
NVDA	$13.85	$15.76	$0.24	15.5%	16.3%
CF	$183.97	$231.13	$1.80	26.6%	16.3%
Totals				30.3%	16.3%
8/15/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CF	$187.26	$231.13	$1.00	24.0%	12.0%
FLR	$66.06	$79.76	$0.32	21.2%	12.0%
AGX	$15.60	$27.03	$0.75	78.1%	12.0%
KLIC	$11.29	$13.22	$0.00	17.1%	12.0%
RPXC	$15.92	$17.01	$0.00	6.8%	12.0%
Totals				29.4%	12.0%
11/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$17.22	$16.85	$0.00	-2.1%	2.9%
ATVI	$17.71	$17.82	$0.00	0.6%	2.4%
GA	$9.04	$11.27	$0.23	27.3%	2.4%
RPXC	$17.04	$17.01	$0.00	-0.2%	2.4%
SYNA	$48.01	$50.43	$0.00	5.0%	2.4%
Totals				6.1%	2.5%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	29.4%	6.1%	93.9%	30.3%	39.6%
Previous Tranche	14.1%	43.7%	0.0%	0.0%	11.8%
MFI Overall Gain	47.6%	52.5%	93.9%	30.3%	56.1%
Current Balance	36,909	38,135	48,463	32,586	156,093
R3K Current Tranche	12.0%	36.7%	24.6%	16.3%	22.4%
R3K Overall Gain	36.8%	36.7%	24.6%	16.3%	28.6%
R3K Balance	34,201	34,170	31,154	29,080	128,605
Annualized IRR	32.8%	45.7%	107.4%	50.3%	59.1%

You can see each tranche has had at least one superstar (NUS, RDA, AGX and GA).  I do find it a bit interesting that three of those have pretty significant Chinese exposure.

Discretionary Portfolio

Kind of highlighted this one already, so I will simply repeat the table:

Stock	Gain	Cost	Price	R3K Gain
GTAT	63.7%	5.23	8.57	9.0%
GNW	118.3%	7.10	15.51	37.4%
HIMX	50.4%	8.94	13.45	4.6%
ATHM	21.2%	28.80	34.91	3.2%
CS	7.8%	28.75	30.98	3.5%
KLIC	18.6%	11.15	13.22	16.4%
HIG-WT	29.9%	21.24	27.60	12.4%
BAC-WTA	20.2%	5.35	6.43	16.9%
GA	3.0%	11.16	11.27	2.1%
Grand Total	44.0%			11.1%

The 21% gain in ATHM has been sweet.  My plan was to hold that for 4 to 6 weeks.  But with the sharp spike, I may sell by the end of the week (and at least push my ST CG into 2014 tax year).

Dividend Portfolio

Continues to under perform.  That being said, I have enjoyed the income stream. It feels like mad money.

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AOD	21,206	3.96	4.19	4,533.38	11.2%	19.3%	-8.1%
BBEP	4,675	16.13	20.28	3,422.22	30.3%	10.5%	19.8%
CSCO	4,389	17.34	22.02	4,219.92	32.5%	38.7%	-6.2%
CSQ	6,631	8.58	10.99	10,064.51	45.8%	49.3%	-3.5%
INTC	3,754	22.25	25.60	4,490.84	20.4%	32.4%	-12.0%
O	580	20.29	37.86	8,597.27	159.7%	110.0%	49.7%
OIBAX	4,070	4.98	6.08	7,739.02	60.2%	114.5%	-54.3%
SBS	6,211	9.54	11.45	-	20.0%	9.0%	11.0%
TC-PT	4,000	15.39	13.10	4,061.80	-8.3%	16.5%	-24.7%
TGONF	7,000	10.27	9.94	1,317.50	-1.4%	12.3%	-13.7%
Total Open				48,446	22.8%	28.1%	-5.4%
Closed					12.9%	10.3%	2.6%
Combined					14.3%	12.9%	1.4%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10					17.6%
2013 Gain					18.4%

Here are my Divvies by year by quarter.  The fourth quarter had a spike as one of my mutual funds I do not discuss much (and is not part of my active tracking) paid a one time annual distribution of $10,600 (using my factor).

Finally, here is graph showing my overall YTD performance.  Been quite a sharp upturn here with Santa rally.  As you will note, I am up by about 45%.  I took a look and I was up almost 18% last year, so that is back to back solid years.  In 2011 I was positive, but just a couple percent.