The markets continue to power upwards. I am at my all-time high. I passed my previous high from May 30th on Thursday, That puts me up 19.2% for the year, which is actually an eyelash over the Russell 3000. So after trailing the index for the past month or so, I am back on top!
I have to give credit where credit is due, my MFI portfolio has really been the engine of late. It is now beating the benchmarks by over 6 points. That is so exciting for me, as I am an MFI fanboy and it would make my investing easier if I could just rely upon it.
MFI Portfolio
| 8/15/12 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DLB | $34.43 | $34.50 | $4.00 | 11.8% | 22.8% |
| $13.98 | $19.64 | $0.00 | 40.5% | 22.8% | |
| $30.19 | $35.67 | $0.69 | 20.4% | 22.8% | |
| NSU | $3.62 | $3.06 | $0.12 | -12.0% | 22.8% |
| $19.96 | $24.63 | $0.00 | 23.4% | 22.8% | |
| Totals | 16.8% | 22.8% | |||
| 11/15/12 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| $537.62 | $426.51 | $5.70 | -19.6% | 26.7% | |
| $40.21 | $58.39 | $0.42 | 46.3% | 26.7% | |
| LPS | $23.89 | $32.11 | $0.30 | 35.7% | 26.7% |
| VIAB | $49.12 | $72.01 | $0.83 | 48.3% | 26.7% |
| WU | $12.77 | $17.47 | $0.38 | 39.7% | 26.7% |
| Totals | 30.1% | 26.7% | |||
| 2/1/13 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| $450.60 | $426.51 | $5.70 | -4.1% | 12.2% | |
| GA | $6.10 | $7.82 | $0.42 | 35.1% | 12.2% |
| STRZA | $16.06 | $23.89 | $0.00 | 48.8% | 12.2% |
| CA | $25.07 | $29.92 | $0.50 | 21.3% | 12.2% |
| $41.94 | $78.00 | $0.60 | 87.4% | 12.2% | |
| Totals | 37.7% | 12.2% | |||
| 5/6/2013 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| KLIC | $11.40 | $11.26 | $0.00 | -1.2% | 4.7% |
| CYOU | $29.24 | $33.10 | $0.00 | 13.2% | 4.7% |
| RDA | $9.74 | $11.74 | $0.00 | 20.6% | 4.7% |
| NVDA | $13.85 | $14.64 | $0.08 | 6.2% | 4.7% |
| CF | $183.97 | $184.14 | $0.40 | 0.3% | 4.7% |
| Totals | 7.8% | 4.7% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Percent Gain | 16.8% | 30.1% | 37.7% | 7.8% | 23.1% |
| Current Balance | 29,211 | 32,521 | 34,427 | 26,956 | 123,115 |
| R3K Gain | 22.8% | 26.7% | 12.2% | 4.7% | 16.6% |
| R3K Balance | 30,706 | 31,669 | 28,040 | 26,163 | 116,578 |
As you can see, MFI is up by about 6.5 points overall. The February portfolio is knocking the ball out of the park. I know I did take a little criticism for picking a few Chinese stocks, but so far so good. GA is up 35%, CYOU is up 13% and RDA is up 20%.
Dividend Portfolio
| Stock | Shares | Avg Cost | Current Price | Dividends Received | Pct Change | R3K Change | Diff |
| 213 | 495.23 | 426.51 | 1,041.93 | -12.9% | 16.2% | -29.0% | |
| AOD | 18,691 | 3.95 | 4.01 | 1,684.43 | 3.7% | 9.4% | -5.6% |
| BBEP | 3,490 | 15.38 | 17.97 | - | 16.9% | 2.7% | 14.1% |
| CIM | 15,877 | 2.68 | 2.92 | 2,700.00 | 15.1% | 14.3% | 0.8% |
| 4,356 | 17.30 | 25.94 | 3,479.34 | 54.6% | 26.1% | 28.4% | |
| CSQ | 5,706 | 8.36 | 10.46 | 7,945.68 | 41.8% | 42.2% | -0.5% |
| 2,948 | 30.29 | 28.05 | 3,812.25 | -3.1% | 12.1% | -15.2% | |
| 3,389 | 22.21 | 23.90 | 2,891.61 | 11.4% | 22.3% | -10.9% | |
| NSU | 10,000 | 3.03 | 3.06 | - | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% |
| O | 567 | 19.83 | 44.84 | 8,074.49 | 198.0% | 94.7% | 103.3% |
| 4,023 | 4.97 | 6.10 | 7,388.76 | 59.7% | 95.9% | -36.2% | |
| 540 | 67.59 | 92.09 | 1,974.05 | 41.7% | 24.5% | 17.1% | |
| 1,413 | 51.46 | 49.99 | 700.00 | -1.9% | 7.1% | -9.0% | |
| SLCA | 3,018 | 20.29 | 22.41 | 375.00 | 11.1% | 2.3% | 8.8% |
| 2,211 | 22.97 | 21.43 | 3,024.82 | -0.8% | 23.8% | -24.5% | |
| TC-PT | 5,500 | 15.43 | 15.95 | 2,234.10 | 6.0% | 7.5% | -1.5% |
| TCRD | 4,200 | 14.73 | 15.30 | - | 3.9% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| TGONF | 2,500 | 10.38 | 10.80 | - | 4.0% | 5.6% | -1.5% |
| Total Open | 47,326 | 12.9% | 16.0% | -3.1% | |||
| Closed | 14.0% | 9.6% | 4.4% | ||||
| Combined | 13.7% | 11.3% | 2.4% | ||||
| Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 | 16.9% | ||||||
| 2013 Gain | 11.9% | ||||||
Still a bit of a struggle here. My open portfolio is trailing by about 3 points. Part of this is because I have taken some profits on dividend stocks that were up big, but part is also due to some poorly timed picks. Hopefully BBEP and SLCA will be the beginning of a change in better picks going forward.
| Estimated Dividends for Next 12 Months | ||||||
| Stock | Shares | Ann Dividend / Share | Yield | Projected Dividend | Sector | Worth |
| 213 | $ 12.20 | 2.9% | 2,602 | Consumer | 90,949 | |
| AOD | 18,691 | $ 0.32 | 8.1% | 6,056 | Hybrid | 74,951 |
| BBEP | 3,490 | $ 1.90 | 10.6% | 6,631 | Resources | 62,715 |
| CIM | 15,877 | $ 0.36 | 12.3% | 5,716 | Real Estate | 46,359 |
| 4,356 | $ 0.68 | 2.6% | 2,962 | Tech | 113,001 | |
| CSQ | 5,706 | $ 0.84 | 8.0% | 4,793 | Hybrid | 59,684 |
| FCX | 2,948 | $ 1.25 | 4.5% | 3,685 | Resources | 82,687 |
| INTC | 3,389 | $ 0.90 | 3.8% | 3,050 | Tech | 81,004 |
| NSU | 10,000 | $ 0.14 | 4.6% | 1,400 | Resources | 30,600 |
| O | 567 | $ 2.17 | 4.8% | 1,230 | Services | 25,426 |
| 4,023 | $ 0.29 | 4.8% | 1,167 | Bond | 24,542 | |
| 540 | $ 2.56 | 2.8% | 1,381 | Insurance | 49,695 | |
| 1,413 | $ 2.24 | 4.5% | 3,165 | Services | 70,636 | |
| SLCA | 3,018 | $ 0.50 | 2.2% | 1,509 | Resources | 67,636 |
| 2,211 | $ 1.16 | 5.4% | 2,567 | Resources | 47,372 | |
| TC-PT | 5,500 | $ 1.60 | 10.0% | 8,800 | Resources | 87,743 |
| TCRD | 4,200 | $ 1.36 | 8.9% | 5,712 | Hybrid | 64,260 |
| TGONF | 2,500 | $ 0.54 | 5.0% | 1,350 | Services | 27,000 |
| Total | 5.8% | 63,777 | ||||
This table shows to yield and projected dividends (using my multiplier) of the current portfolio. Pretty sweet, 5.8% will be nice. Selling PGR this week definitely bumped that number up. I was reading about Auto Insurance this week and I will likely not buy PGR again. The issue is that driverless cars are likely to eventually start being produced. They will very likely have much lower insurance rates. Good for society, but perhaps bad for Progressive.
| Upcoming Dividends | |||||
| Stock | Shares | x Date | Div/Share | Est New Shares | Amount |
| AOD | 18,691 | $ 0.03 | 125.0 | 505 | |
| TC-PT | 5,500 | $ 0.41 | 140.0 | 2,234 | |
| 4,023 | $ 0.02 | 13.0 | 80 | ||
| O | 567 | $ 0.18 | 2.0 | 103 | |
| 3,389 | $ 0.23 | 31.0 | 763 | ||
| CSQ | 5,706 | $ 0.07 | 38.0 | 399 | |
| 294 | $ 3.05 | 2.1 | 897 | ||
| BBEP | 3,490 | $ 0.47 | 91.3 | 1,640 | |
| 736 | $ 0.23 | 4.0 | 169 | ||
| CF | 108 | $ 0.40 | - | 43 | |
| 502 | $ 0.21 | 1.0 | 105 | ||
I like to show upcoming dividends as that kind of keeps me motivated. I hear a lot of people use casino analogies with the stock market. And seeing the way some people speculate, rather than invest, I can see that. But there is nothing like getting a regular dividend check to make it feel like investing. Try it some time. It is actually my favorite type of money. It feels like extra, above and beyond. Looking forward to my 2nd TCPT dividend. It is a big check. Still will have to wait about a month for my first BBEP check.
Discretionary Portfolio
| Stock | Gain | Cost | Price |
| GNW | 79.3% | 7.10 | 12.74 |
| GTAT | 29.2% | 3.39 | 4.38 |
| 5.3% | 12.75 | 13.43 | |
| 1.0% | 11.15 | 11.26 | |
| Grand Total | 35.5% | 6.40 | 8.67 |
As you can see, they are all in the green. I do not work quite as hard on relative comparisons for this component of my investing. The GNW and GTAT gains are clearly above and beyond the market. ACAS really made a stellar upward move this week. I had an order to buy more around $12.50, but it never got there. I should really buy more as this is like buying a dollar for 70 cents. Why not buy as many as possible? They have a net asset value of $19.04 and trade at $13.43. They are savvy about that, and continue to use excess income to buy back shares (as opposed to paying a dividend) as that is an instantaneous gain of 42%. If you do the math, the NAV will continue to move up nicely as they buy ack more and more shares at a discount. As Warren Buffett says, I hope some day they have bought back all the shares except mine, and then I will own 100% of the company.
My regret in my discretionary portfolio was selling HILL at the start of June for $2.16, which was a small gain for me. They spiked up this week north of $2.60 based on upgraded guidance. That actually jived with the reason I bought them. I had followed them as part of potential Russell 3000 candidates and saw they spiked in May one day when they presented a small business conference. My guess was that they said something very bullish there. A couple days later, they pulled back and I bought them. I then sold as markets seemed unstable and it was only pure speculation on my part they had said something bullish.
Looking Backwards
Obviously when driving a car, you want to try and look forward most of the time. But occasionally, you can learn something by looking backwards and reviewing where you have been. I thought it might be interesting to look backwards at dividend stocks I have sold. Now the table shown below has some big numbers in it. But that can be a little deceiving as I might have bought 100 shares of stock AAA and then sold them a month later. Then I re-bought them two months later. That will show up below as 200 shares of AAA, when it really was two buys with a sale of 100 shares.
| Stock | Shares | Sale Price | Current Price | Missed Value |
| 7,402 | 6.35 | 6.40 | 370 | |
| ace | 646 | 52.27 | 93.50 | 26,634 |
| AXS | 2,838 | 29.17 | 47.78 | 52,813 |
| 442 | 43.13 | 49.58 | 2,853 | |
| BHK | 3,080 | 12.73 | 12.84 | 346 |
| 400 | 33.34 | 54.88 | 8,616 | |
| BR | 600 | 19.51 | 28.15 | 5,184 |
| 1,531 | 11.88 | 9.76 | (3,247) | |
| 1,643 | 12.50 | 12.70 | 329 | |
| CIM | 13,388 | 2.91 | 2.92 | 134 |
| 1,184 | 28.04 | 27.59 | (533) | |
| CPL | 1,578 | 21.08 | 18.17 | (4,592) |
| CSQ | 11,392 | 9.48 | 10.46 | 11,164 |
| DD | 500 | 51.54 | 54.41 | 1,435 |
| 1,450 | 37.77 | 52.97 | 22,035 | |
| ENH-PA | 1,500 | 26.30 | 26.31 | 10 |
| 1,028 | 40.96 | 28.05 | (13,277) | |
| FSC | 2,829 | 10.70 | 10.70 | - |
| 4,000 | 5.45 | 6.19 | 2,952 | |
| HFC | 1,226 | 53.35 | 43.04 | (12,640) |
| 804 | 28.87 | 26.19 | (2,154) | |
| 4,800 | 21.07 | 20.76 | (1,499) | |
| 771 | 21.26 | 23.90 | 2,035 | |
| 1,684 | 50.00 | 54.97 | 8,377 | |
| JQC | 4,921 | 10.34 | 10.02 | (1,588) |
| KMF | 1,873 | 34.40 | 33.98 | (784) |
| 912 | 51.91 | 53.49 | 1,439 | |
| KSW | 15,373 | 4.61 | 5.00 | 6,012 |
| 2,442 | 23.89 | 39.56 | 38,273 | |
| 4,575 | 6.64 | 12.78 | 28,082 | |
| 13,678 | 2.35 | 1.79 | (7,660) | |
| MPC | 882 | 66.64 | 73.24 | 5,824 |
| 500 | 25.69 | 43.98 | 9,145 | |
| 979 | 27.24 | 35.67 | 8,261 | |
| 1,408 | 27.96 | 27.43 | (739) | |
| 10,000 | 1.85 | 4.15 | 22,990 | |
| NSU | 5,280 | 3.27 | 3.06 | (1,108) |
| 4,000 | 4.90 | 8.18 | 13,120 | |
| PETS | 1,316 | 15.64 | 14.14 | (1,973) |
| 636 | 14.71 | 28.81 | 8,968 | |
| 2,118 | 26.13 | 25.97 | (346) | |
| PM | 744 | 82.54 | 89.70 | 5,326 |
| 500 | 79.93 | 92.09 | 6,080 | |
| 427 | 105.00 | 85.60 | (8,283) | |
| QCOR | 1,800 | 21.64 | 49.30 | 49,788 |
| RAI | 424 | 37.42 | 51.35 | 5,911 |
| 800 | 14.80 | 50.51 | 28,568 | |
| 752 | 55.77 | 88.75 | 24,801 | |
| RNR-C | 2,500 | 22.98 | 25.00 | 5,050 |
| 677 | 52.04 | 69.47 | 11,805 | |
| SAI | 4,764 | 14.87 | 14.10 | (3,669) |
| 1,057 | 81.29 | 9.96 | (75,407) | |
| SLCA | 2,062 | 20.43 | 22.41 | 4,089 |
| 2,719 | 21.30 | 31.64 | 28,119 | |
| SLRC | 1,579 | 24.14 | 24.21 | 111 |
| SLW | 2,000 | 22.36 | 20.47 | (3,780) |
| 15,428 | 8.09 | 6.45 | (25,325) | |
| 238 | 151.72 | 51.20 | (23,887) | |
| 350 | 61.31 | 82.81 | 7,525 | |
| TROX | 4,923 | 18.24 | 20.80 | 12,626 |
| 3,397 | 5.61 | 7.95 | 7,950 | |
| 2,120 | 31.80 | 37.66 | 12,431 | |
| valu | 1,000 | 17.67 | 8.73 | (8,940) |
| VIVHY | 2,896 | 20.58 | 19.79 | (2,290) |
| VR | 2,323 | 28.65 | 35.29 | 15,424 |
| 508 | 116.00 | 132.79 | 8,522 | |
| 350 | 25.97 | 45.74 | 6,920 | |
| 224 | 88.76 | 93.40 | 1,039 |
Also, note these numbers exclude missed dividends since the sale, so some stocks that are "bond-like", such as ENH-PA really did better. Also, scanning through this, there is a mistake on SBS that I am too lazy to fix. They have split 6 for 1, so the $9.96 is more like $60. One other quick note, KSW and MRX no longer exist and STD is now SAN (good change) and MAIL is PERI. So I have clearly had some timely sales (like STRA and STD). But I missed out on some huge gains (NOK, AXS, QCOR, LNC, MAIL and SLF are up hugely since I sold). I stress a lot on this blog about trying to take the emotion out of investing. I put in a lot of thought picking stocks to buy, but I probaly tend to often sell stocks based on emotion or one negative thought.
NOK was clearly worth more than $1.85, just their patents and cash. But I sold as they were skipping along the bottom and had a couple poor earnings reports. QCOR was sold based on my reading about possible SEC investigation on their sales practices (but I had gotten them so cheap, that was built in). I had bought LNC on the inevitable prospect on interest rates going back up. But last fall, Bernanke kind of suggested they would stay low for a very long time and then I felt I could sell LNC and buy back 6 months later. I could go on, but the point is that it is very easy to rationalize and come up with a reason to sell ANY stock (JPM is another regret, as I had a great gain but sold before a year and incurred a higher tax rate. I sold based on fears during the Jamie Dimon drama this spring).
Enough looking backwards! Things are still all good!
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