Monday, July 29, 2013

(Re) Fine Opportunity?

As my gentle readers likely know, I will be picking five new stocks for my August 15th MFI tranche shortly.  Here are the current five stocks and how they have done:

8/15/12 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
DLB $34.43 $33.01 $4.00 7.5% 23.9%
KFY $13.98 $19.71 $0.00 41.0% 23.9%
MSFT $30.19 $31.62 $0.69 7.0% 23.9%
NSU $3.62 $3.39 $0.12 -2.9% 23.9%
UIS $19.96 $25.81 $0.00 29.3% 23.9%
Totals 16.4% 23.9%

I have already done an analysis of a bunch of potential replacement ideas.  But I am always looking for new ideas and some of my ideas from earlier in July have run up a bit.  The five favorites I had listed back then were:

  1. CYOU
  2. CF
  3. KLIC
  4. FLR
  5. NSU
A couple of those names have run up since I analyzed them a month ago. CYOU is up 34%! NSU is up 15%.  So I suspect I will be revisiting names in the next two weeks.

In that vein, Barron's was bullish on HFC this weekend (HollyFrontier could rise 30 pct-Barron's).  When I did my analysis, I did look at CVI and WNR as possible stocks.  But this was the chart that convinced me otherwise

(http://ycharts.com/indicators/brent_wti_spread/chart#series=type:indicator,id:brent_wti_spread,calc:&zoom=1&startDate=&endDate=&format=real&recessions=false&chartView=).

Reading the Barron's article did not change my mind.  I do think refining stocks had their spike (which I profited nicely from) and are now likely to revert back to the mean.

Have a great Monday everyone. Cool and rainy here in Zurich.

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