Sunday, July 21, 2013

European Bargains?

Not sure if all my readers have been to Europe, but it is expensive.  At least the areas I have tended to go.  It is super neat. But food and lodging can be pretty pricey.

How about European stocks?  I know, I know, Europe is in a recession.  But guess what?  The US was in a recession in 2009 and that actually turned out to be the best possible time to buy stocks in US companies.  Barron's made their case this weekend (Europe's Economy Will Rebound).

So if you believe this thesis, who should you buy?  Well, I guess a quick place to look is financials.  Certainly many of the US Financials were at their very bottom in 2009.  If we think about price to book value, the following financials look inexpensive:

IRE: 0.61
DB: 0.58
RBS: 0.50
BCS: 0.69
SAN: 0.70

If we think about MFI, here are top 50 European per my last analysis:

Ticker Rank  Stock Price  Market Cap Earnings Yield ROIC Dividend Yield Country
AZN 1         49.58      61,975 13% 142% 5.7%   Europe
TARO 2         59.36        2,657 17% 108% 0.0%   Europe
STX 3         46.68      17,225 15% 102% 3.0%   Europe
WCRX 4         19.93        5,006 10% 396% 22.8%   Europe
CTCM 5         12.41        1,963 12% 103% 4.6%   Europe
FORTY 6         22.69            317 12% 90% 1.6%   Europe
AVG 7         20.83        1,138 8% 778% 0.0%   Europe
FWLT 8         21.91        2,293 11% 65% 0.0%   Europe
ITRN 9         16.99            356 10% 71% 4.9%   Europe
ACN 10         75.52      53,996 8% 469% 2.2%   Europe
STO 11         21.43      68,186 42% 37% 5.4%   Europe
CHKP 12         54.15      10,970 7% 2000% 0.0%   Europe
TI 13           6.51      12,594 14% 39% 3.8%   Europe
LYB 14         70.00      40,460 12% 39% 6.4%   Europe
BTI 15      105.61    102,917 7% 128% 3.9%   Europe
IOSP 16         42.67        1,025 9% 52% 4.7%   Europe
ALV 17         81.80        7,836 10% 42% 2.4%   Europe
OFIX 18         27.96            551 16% 30% 0.0%   Europe
MBT 19         20.07      19,960 11% 35% 4.8%   Europe
VIP 20         10.38      16,805 12% 34% 19.1%   Europe
TEVA 21         39.56      33,863 10% 44% 2.9%   Europe
LXFR 22         16.70            467 13% 30% 1.2%   Europe
ENL 23         35.44      13,150 7% 16301% 3.4%   Europe
COV 24         59.52      28,332 8% 51% 1.5%   Europe
TOT 25         50.47    114,594 18% 23% 6.0%   Europe
TKC 26         14.72      12,954 10% 30% 0.0%   Europe
SNN 27         59.00      10,726 8% 45% 2.2%   Europe
E 28         42.08      76,224 22% 21% 6.6%   Europe
EVAC 29           8.30            937 9% 38% 0.0%   Europe
WPPGY 30         90.63      24,517 6% 159% 2.4%   Europe
CEL 31           9.76            972 10% 29% 0.0%   Europe
GSK 32         52.96    128,349 7% 66% 4.4%   Europe
IR 33         59.09      17,875 7% 55% 1.3%   Europe
SAP 34         75.16      89,816 6% 242% 1.5%   Europe
NVO 35      164.65      89,685 6% 135% 1.9%   Europe
BBL 36         54.11    144,420 12% 21% 4.1%   Europe
ERIC 37         12.07      39,276 8% 39% 3.6%   Europe
DLPH 38         54.93      17,323 8% 38% 0.6%   Europe
ESLT 39         42.85        1,802 9% 28% 2.8%   Europe
TEL 40         47.46      20,123 8% 38% 1.9%   Europe
PSO 41         18.95      15,266 6% 86% 3.6%   Europe
ABB 42         22.53      51,887 8% 41% 3.3%   Europe
TS 43         43.10      25,441 9% 27% 2.0%   Europe
FMS 44         32.71      20,142 8% 35% 1.5%   Europe
BT 45         51.36      42,161 9% 24% 2.7%   Europe
SI 46      107.33      91,419 7% 40% 3.6%   Europe
MLNX 47         51.66        2,216 5% 99% 0.0%   Europe
CBI 48         61.30        6,345 6% 63% 0.3%   Europe
IHG 49         29.74        8,684 6% 57% 0.0%   Europe
RDWR 50         14.94            702 4% 196% 0.0%   Europe

Now one needs to look at this list with a keen eye.  Many companies here are not traditional European companies that would be leveraged to a rebound in Europe.  STX (Seagate) and ACN (Accenture) are obviously more global/US Centric companies.

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