Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Stocks Starting to Run Away?

I was looking over my performance lately and it has really been stellar.  Since July 3rd, I am up 8.5%.  Fr the year, I am 2.5 points above the R3K, which is one of the best indexes for the year.  It is easy to gnash my teeth and think about opportunities I missed or sold (HILL is up 30%, I bought HIMX in my Fools portfolio and it is up 84%, CPLA is up 34% since I almost bought in my May MFI portfolio, the 30% of my GNW I sold in May is up 24%and ABR is up 24% since I bailed on them in June).

Then I could have bought into the PSXP IPO today. It is up 29%. If I had bought a 1,000 shares that would be a snappy $6,500! I will start watching the IPO space more closely, as that is just leaving easy money on the table.

But I suppose that is the way it always is and gnashing of teeth just can not be good.  I do need to trust a bi more when I have been following a stock like GAME or HIMAX and they get some good news that the momentum can carry for multiple days (HIMAX was up 30% first day, but 13% more today).

I do wonder if the market is getting close to fully priced. While I generally believe that my stocks are still attractive, it feels in aggregate like many stocks are trading at 17 to 25x earnings and it doesn't ally feel sustainable.  Not sure what to do. It is tempting to trim a little bit at the margins. But I am still 19% in cash.  If I were to sell, I am not even su what I would sell. PRE is the one that seems like it may have limited upside. Perhaps CSQ as well.  I suppose you could argue to sell CIM as the dividend may not be sustainable if rates rise sharply.

I think at the end of the day, you can make a case to hold all of my holdings. Even if they got cheaper, I would then just get more shares with dividends. I really do not want to pay taxes on the GTAT run up and while it is arguably the most speculative play I have right now, I still think they could go up another dollar if solar continues rebound and 3 dollars should the sapphire take off.

I think I will just go on vacation, leaving things in place. I do have several buy orders in (puke orders).

MRK at 40.91 (48.17 now)
PNC at 54.42 (77.14)
KKR at 15.80 (21.33)
NSC at 63.79 (77.35)
TGONF at 10.20 (10.90)
ACAS at 12.05 (13.84) and
SBS at 9.85 (10.81)

So for any to trigger it will generally require. Drop of more than 10%.  You never know in today's world of flash crashes, that is why I like to always have a few puke prices out there.

End of day addendum. I did decide to sell my PRE.  That closes the book for me on PRE. I had a couple of great runs:

I first bought in September 2011 for 56.23. I sold those for a 46% gain. Then I added shares in February of 2012 doubling my holdings. Those are the ones I sold today at a 40% gain.  Better than a sharp stick in the eye.


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