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First, as you can see on the left, I did put in my miles this morning. I actually road to the Massachusetts state line, almost 15 miles. It does show that Ct is a smallish state, if you lived in Dallas Texas and tried to ride a bike to a state line, it would be a serious achievement.
Now that I have done my chest-thumping, I thought it might be fun to look at all open MFI stock months as MFI seems to be starting to roll again. First some broad statistics:
1. The average open MFI stock is up 20.4%.
2. The average of the Russell 3000 is 14.6%
3. At 50 stocks per portfolio, I should have 600 open stock months.
4. As a reminder, I pick stocks over 100m in market cap.
| Stock | Count | Avg Change | R3K Change | Difference |
| 1 | 99.2% | 25.0% | 74.3% | |
| 7 | 92.9% | 16.5% | 76.4% | |
| 4 | 87.3% | 22.3% | 65.0% | |
| 11 | 85.8% | 15.6% | 70.3% | |
| SAVE | 8 | 80.5% | 19.3% | 61.2% |
| UBNT | 2 | 80.1% | 21.1% | 58.9% |
| ICON | 1 | 76.9% | 19.7% | 57.1% |
| QCOR | 10 | 76.6% | 12.8% | 63.8% |
| 11 | 67.2% | 14.9% | 52.4% | |
| 1 | 63.5% | 11.7% | 51.9% | |
| TZOO | 4 | 58.5% | 21.9% | 36.6% |
| TW | 3 | 57.8% | 22.2% | 35.6% |
| 1 | 57.6% | 21.8% | 35.8% | |
| VIAB | 1 | 57.0% | 25.0% | 32.0% |
| WCRX | 8 | 57.0% | 15.2% | 41.8% |
| RPXC | 9 | 56.2% | 13.4% | 42.8% |
| APEI | 1 | 56.1% | 25.0% | 31.1% |
| 1 | 55.1% | 25.0% | 30.1% | |
| 1 | 53.6% | 21.7% | 32.0% | |
| EXPR | 8 | 51.4% | 15.9% | 35.4% |
| 7 | 48.4% | 20.4% | 28.0% | |
| 1 | 47.3% | 6.8% | 40.5% | |
| 1 | 43.1% | 25.0% | 18.1% | |
| 11 | 40.6% | 13.7% | 26.9% | |
| BODY | 5 | 37.9% | 20.1% | 17.8% |
| KFY | 2 | 37.7% | 23.7% | 13.9% |
| PETS | 7 | 36.9% | 19.5% | 17.3% |
| CPLA | 12 | 36.8% | 14.6% | 22.2% |
| STRZA | 2 | 35.6% | 12.3% | 23.4% |
| XLS | 2 | 34.7% | 7.2% | 27.5% |
| CSGS | 1 | 34.2% | 25.0% | 9.2% |
| CSCO | 12 | 33.2% | 14.6% | 18.6% |
| BAH | 8 | 32.4% | 13.2% | 19.2% |
| VG | 11 | 29.9% | 14.9% | 15.0% |
| KLAC | 1 | 29.6% | 19.7% | 9.8% |
| ESI | 12 | 28.8% | 14.6% | 14.2% |
| VPHM | 1 | 28.5% | 25.0% | 3.6% |
| COH | 1 | 27.6% | 11.7% | 15.9% |
| CA | 6 | 27.4% | 14.0% | 13.4% |
| SAI | 11 | 27.0% | 15.3% | 11.7% |
| FRX | 1 | 26.6% | 22.5% | 4.1% |
| UIS | 9 | 26.6% | 13.0% | 13.7% |
| MYGN | 2 | 26.1% | 9.6% | 16.5% |
| HLF | 7 | 24.7% | 9.2% | 15.4% |
| USMO | 10 | 22.6% | 16.5% | 6.1% |
| MSFT | 12 | 22.2% | 14.6% | 7.6% |
| RTN | 12 | 22.2% | 14.6% | 7.6% |
| ENDP | 2 | 21.6% | 4.9% | 16.7% |
| CACI | 5 | 20.9% | 17.7% | 3.2% |
| LPS | 11 | 20.9% | 13.7% | 7.2% |
| DHX | 3 | 20.0% | 22.4% | -2.4% |
| NOC | 5 | 19.2% | 6.5% | 12.7% |
| ENZN | 1 | 19.1% | 2.4% | 16.7% |
| SWHC | 3 | 19.0% | 4.5% | 14.5% |
| NATR | 12 | 17.8% | 14.6% | 3.2% |
| DELL | 11 | 17.1% | 15.7% | 1.4% |
| DLB | 6 | 16.3% | 20.2% | -3.9% |
| MANT | 7 | 15.4% | 20.4% | -5.0% |
| PDLI | 12 | 15.2% | 14.6% | 0.6% |
| DLX | 7 | 15.0% | 13.9% | 1.2% |
| EXEL | 1 | 14.2% | 22.5% | -8.3% |
| LFVN | 3 | 12.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| GTAT | 10 | 12.3% | 16.9% | -4.6% |
| NVDA | 2 | 12.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% |
| BCOR | 1 | 12.0% | 2.4% | 9.6% |
| VECO | 2 | 11.8% | 22.4% | -10.6% |
| VCI | 10 | 10.9% | 13.3% | -2.4% |
| SPPI | 4 | 10.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% |
| PBI | 5 | 10.0% | 10.0% | -0.1% |
| LO | 4 | 9.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% |
| GNI | 11 | 8.8% | 14.9% | -6.1% |
| CRUS | 1 | 8.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% |
| CHE | 2 | 7.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% |
| DMRC | 7 | 7.2% | 15.9% | -8.7% |
| MNTA | 3 | 7.0% | 23.1% | -16.1% |
| FLR | 2 | 6.5% | 5.5% | 1.0% |
| CJES | 1 | 6.5% | 25.0% | -18.5% |
| NTI | 4 | 5.2% | 16.3% | -11.2% |
| UTHR | 1 | 5.0% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| AUXL | 4 | 3.9% | 5.2% | -1.3% |
| KLIC | 7 | 3.8% | 20.4% | -16.6% |
| ATVI | 5 | 2.1% | 6.5% | -4.4% |
| RGR | 2 | 2.0% | 3.3% | -1.2% |
| WTW | 2 | 1.3% | 3.3% | -2.0% |
| AFAM | 7 | 0.0% | 19.3% | -19.3% |
| 6 | -0.6% | 7.6% | -8.1% | |
| 2 | -2.0% | 22.1% | -24.1% | |
| 2 | -2.2% | 3.3% | -5.5% | |
| 11 | -2.7% | 13.7% | -16.4% | |
| AGX | 12 | -2.8% | 14.6% | -17.4% |
| HFC | 5 | -3.6% | 17.4% | -21.0% |
| 1 | -3.8% | 22.5% | -26.4% | |
| DXM | 2 | -4.5% | 3.3% | -7.8% |
| 6 | -4.5% | 7.6% | -12.1% | |
| 12 | -7.3% | 14.6% | -21.9% | |
| 7 | -8.0% | 10.6% | -18.6% | |
| TNAV | 12 | -8.0% | 14.6% | -22.6% |
| CF | 11 | -8.0% | 15.3% | -23.3% |
| 8 | -10.7% | 19.3% | -30.0% | |
| CPIX | 1 | -10.7% | 25.0% | -35.7% |
| 12 | -11.0% | 14.6% | -25.6% | |
| MSB | 6 | -11.4% | 9.0% | -20.4% |
| BTH | 2 | -14.9% | 7.2% | -22.0% |
| EGY | 11 | -17.0% | 15.6% | -32.6% |
| UTSI | 3 | -17.4% | 22.4% | -39.8% |
| NSU | 12 | -19.3% | 14.6% | -33.9% |
| EBIX | 4 | -19.7% | 6.4% | -26.2% |
| SVLC | 3 | -32.9% | 14.6% | -47.5% |
| POOSF | 3 | -100.0% | 17.9% | -117.9% |
Now let us look by a couple variable we like to look at. By dividend yield, by market cap and by number of letters (I know that seems silly).
Number of Letters
| Stock | Count | Avg Change | R3K Change | Difference |
| 2 | 35 | 17.6% | 14.4% | 3.2% |
| 3 | 223 | 20.9% | 13.8% | 7.1% |
| 4 | 337 | 21.3% | 15.2% | 6.2% |
| 5 | 5 | -45.7% | 15.6% | -61.4% |
| Grand Total | 600 | 20.4% | 14.6% | 5.8% |
In the past we have seen 4 letter stocks not do as well. For open positions, they are actually doing the best.
By Market Cap
| Decile | Count | Avg Change | R3K Change | Difference |
| 1 | 60 | 1.8% | 16.5% | -14.8% |
| 2 | 60 | 10.4% | 14.7% | -4.3% |
| 3 | 60 | 19.3% | 14.7% | 4.6% |
| 4 | 60 | 22.6% | 14.4% | 8.2% |
| 5 | 60 | 8.6% | 15.8% | -7.2% |
| 6 | 60 | 33.9% | 15.9% | 17.9% |
| 7 | 60 | 32.5% | 13.7% | 18.8% |
| 8 | 60 | 36.0% | 14.4% | 21.6% |
| 9 | 60 | 19.2% | 12.9% | 6.2% |
| 10 | 60 | 19.6% | 13.0% | 6.7% |
| Grand Total | 600 | 20.4% | 14.6% | 5.8% |
Wow, that is actually a pretty interesting table. There is a very clear sweet spot for the open stocks in deciles 6,7 an 8. That corresponds to stocks with market caps from $971m to $4.3b.
By Yield
First keep in mind these are primarily Yahoo Finance Yields, so far from perfect. I have overwritten a few when I knew there was a change (like when STRA stopped their dividend).
| Yield Decile | Count | Avg Change | R3K Change | Difference |
| 1 | 60 | 18.2% | 13.9% | 4.3% |
| 2 | 60 | 21.4% | 16.0% | 5.4% |
| 3 | 60 | 28.5% | 13.8% | 14.7% |
| 4 | 60 | 30.7% | 12.8% | 17.9% |
| 5 | 60 | 21.5% | 12.9% | 8.6% |
| 6 | 58 | 7.4% | 12.8% | -5.3% |
| 7 | 242 | 18.9% | 15.9% | 3.0% |
| Grand Total | 600 | 20.4% | 14.6% | 5.8% |
Deciles are not quite the best name here as "decile" 7 is all the stocks that do not pay a dividend. There does appear to be a bias for stocks that pay a higher dividend
Decile 1 band: 8.5%+
Decile 2 band: 4.5% to 8.5%
Decile 3 band: 3.4% to 4.5%
Decile 4 Band: 2.7% to 3.4%
Probably easier to make another table. I think the very top bands include a number of stocks that paid a one time special dividend and are not always what i would call a "true" dividend stock.
| Yield Decile | Count | Min Yield | Max Yield |
| 1 | 60 | 8.5% | 127.4% |
| 2 | 60 | 4.5% | 8.4% |
| 3 | 60 | 3.4% | 4.5% |
| 4 | 60 | 2.7% | 3.4% |
| 5 | 60 | 1.6% | 2.7% |
| 6 | 58 | 0.3% | 1.6% |
| 7 | 242 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Finally, here is just sorted by dividend flag (so 2.6% or greater).
| Yield Decile | Count | Percent Change | R3K Change | Difference |
| 1 | 254 | 24.0% | 14.1% | 9.9% |
| 2 | 346 | 17.7% | 15.0% | 2.7% |
| Grand Total | 600 | 20.4% | 14.6% | 5.8% |
Again, supports what I have said here for several years, MFI stocks yielding 2.6% or higher tend to perform better.
New Stock Flag
The final table shows a listing of stocks that were new to my tracking portfolios over the past 12 months. This approach has also recently out-performed, though over all my history, it has been a pretty neutral strategy.
| Stock | Count | Percent Change | R3K Change | Difference |
| 1 | -1.8% | 12.8% | -14.7% | |
| 1 | -6.1% | 2.4% | -8.5% | |
| APEI | 1 | 56.1% | 25.0% | 31.1% |
| AUXL | 1 | -2.4% | 7.5% | -9.9% |
| BAH | 1 | 49.9% | 21.8% | 28.0% |
| 1 | 12.0% | 2.4% | 9.6% | |
| 1 | -2.5% | 22.5% | -25.0% | |
| 1 | 63.5% | 11.7% | 51.9% | |
| 1 | -15.9% | 7.5% | -23.4% | |
| CA | 1 | 35.7% | 21.8% | 13.8% |
| CACI | 1 | 20.8% | 22.5% | -1.8% |
| CHE | 1 | 10.6% | 2.4% | 8.3% |
| 1 | 27.6% | 11.7% | 15.9% | |
| 1 | 8.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | |
| DHX | 1 | 24.6% | 25.0% | -0.4% |
| 1 | 3.9% | 22.5% | -18.7% | |
| DXM | 1 | -10.5% | 2.4% | -12.9% |
| 1 | -20.7% | 11.7% | -32.3% | |
| 1 | 27.5% | 7.5% | 20.0% | |
| 1 | 19.1% | 2.4% | 16.7% | |
| 1 | 9.3% | 6.8% | 2.5% | |
| HFC | 1 | 14.7% | 21.8% | -7.2% |
| HLF | 1 | 51.0% | 19.1% | 31.9% |
| 1 | 53.6% | 21.7% | 32.0% | |
| LFVN | 1 | 10.6% | 7.5% | 3.2% |
| LO | 1 | 15.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% |
| 1 | -3.8% | 22.5% | -26.4% | |
| 1 | 57.6% | 21.8% | 35.8% | |
| 1 | -15.4% | 21.7% | -37.0% | |
| 1 | 27.1% | 11.7% | 15.5% | |
| 1 | 20.2% | 21.7% | -1.4% | |
| 1 | 86.3% | 22.5% | 63.8% | |
| 1 | 14.6% | 7.5% | 7.2% | |
| 1 | 36.5% | 19.1% | 17.3% | |
| POOSF | 1 | -100.0% | 21.7% | -121.7% |
| QCOR | 1 | 173.3% | 19.7% | 153.5% |
| 1 | 43.1% | 25.0% | 18.1% | |
| 1 | -1.1% | 2.4% | -3.4% | |
| RPXC | 1 | 58.7% | 19.7% | 39.0% |
| 1 | 13.4% | 7.5% | 5.9% | |
| STRZA | 1 | 47.4% | 12.8% | 34.5% |
| 1 | 41.7% | 22.5% | 19.2% | |
| SVLC | 1 | -34.5% | 19.1% | -53.7% |
| SWHC | 1 | 26.1% | 6.8% | 19.2% |
| TVL | 1 | 47.3% | 6.8% | 40.5% |
| TW | 1 | 47.9% | 25.0% | 23.0% |
| TZOO | 1 | 36.8% | 25.0% | 11.8% |
| UBNT | 1 | 90.8% | 22.5% | 68.3% |
| UTHR | 1 | 5.0% | 4.2% | 0.8% |
| WCRX | 1 | 52.8% | 19.7% | 33.1% |
| 1 | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% | |
| XLS | 1 | 33.9% | 7.5% | 26.4% |
| Grand Total | 52 | 24.3% | 14.4% | 9.9% |
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