The final week of my August 15th, 2013 tranche is here. I am sure my readers are bored of my discussions, but it helps me as an investor to lay out my bull cases here. I believe I am down to 15 stocks, and am leaning towards 5 specific stocks.
My bias, given some of my recent studies, is towards dividend stocks and towards larger cap stocks (say over $700 million). However, those are guidelines for me, not rules.
NSR - I already own these guys in my May tranche. They do not pay a dividend. They are down about 50% from their 52 week high, due to uncertainty regarding a govt contract. If they retained the contract as is, then they are a potential double. There are rumors they are not the front runner. My view is that I have enough risk with a single holding.
COH - I went to the expert here, my wife. I asked her view on Coach products and she told me that they are not the "in" product any more. So while COH is down about 40%, pays a 3.9% dividend and is a larger cap stock, I am taking a pass due to my wife's view.
AVG - in so many ways, this stock is so cheap. They do not pay a dividend and are just short of a $1b market cap. I already own them in my November and February tranches, so I will pass. I do like them though at current price.
HRB - I wish I had bought them between March and August of 2012 when they were a regular on the list. That would have been between a 70 and 100% gain in a year. While they are in no way as cheap any more, they are a safe pair of hands with a 2.4% dividend + a large cap. I cannot dismiss them.
TIME - I have bought for my dividend portfolio, though ironically they are yet to announce a dividend. They reported earnings last week, and I felt they were just ok. I am not convinced they should be on the list, so I will not buy them this "time". (sorry, it was too easy).
NUS - one of my greatest stock picks ever. They were in my Feb 2012 portfolio and returned 181% in under a year. I still can't believe that number. Do they have it in them a second time? They are certainly out of favor. With issues in China in the Winter (is coming), it seems they have lost momentum. I am not sure - at some point I suspect they will have hit bottom. I will watch them closely, at under $50 they might be a great pick.
CA - well, I liked CA at $29.54 in May. They are now 28.55, so i suppose I should like them more. It seems all of these computer consulting firms (CA, IBM, ACN, GIB etc) are all struggling a bit. With a 3.5% dividend yield and a relatively low price, I think they have to make the next round. So far NUS, HRB & CA move forward.
CTCM - the Russian TV network. Pretty cheap by many metrics, but I am tired of Putin and will vote with my stock picks: Nyet!
HLF - This is a Jekyll & Hyde stock. Somedays I think I should buy it, other days I think I should short it. If you go to their financials and what analysts are saying, they trade for just 7x next years earnings. Cheap for a company that is growing. You do have the specter of the SEC or some govt agency stepping in; but you do have Carl Icahn holding a large position next to you, and he is nobody's fool. If the SEC finds nothing wrong, this stock pops from under $50 to $70 to $75 I think. I think i have to carry HLF to next round.
HSII - While they are on the expensive side of stocks I am considering, I do believe that if unemployment drops in next 12 months (globally), this is a stock that could really go up. They are a $19 stock, but in the go-go economic days of 2007, they were between $35 and $40. They also have a decent dividend. I think they stay on list. So far NUS, HRB, HLF, HSII & CA move forward.
AGX - A bit of a smaller cap name that generally pays a special dividend. They are coming of age for me in August, but I could roll over for another year. I am tempted as they still seem very very cheap to me.
CSCO - I know (yawn), pretty boring. But there is nothing wrong with a company that makes a ton of dough and is cheap. They actually seem to be beating some of their more nimble competitors (the elephant sometimes wins). They have a 3% dividend and a fortress balance sheet. MSFT and INTC have really moved up, it may be CSCO's turn next.
ITRN - this just came on the list this week, though I had them #72 last week in my top 200. Smaller Israeli company. They pay a 3% dividend. They actually report earnings on Monday, so if they are strong, they may run away from me. If they are so-so I may not be interested anymore. I guess this is a "stay tuned" story, but if they pop on Monday, you heard about them here first.
VIAB - a bit pricey, but I owned in Nov 2012 tranche with solid success (up 67%). They are shareholder friendly, large, with a 1.8% dividend. Content seems to be valuable, always possible they get put into play.
RGR - gun manufacturer, has dropped a lot of late. Pays a solid dividend. I do wonder if there comes the point where everyone who wants a gun has a gun (or two or three). So have some of the robust sales from a year or two ago stolen sales from tomorrow? Not sure, but will considre.