Saturday, August 16, 2014

Weekend Update - Home

Weekend Update

While vacations are always nice - get to see some new places and spend some time with the family; it is equally nice to get back home.  I believe humans need routines and when you are at home, it is easier to be in the routine.  We did spend yesterday in Boston, coming back from Cape Cod.  My son is heading into his Senior year of High School, so we did campus tours of Boston University and MIT.

Last week was my 2nd straight excellent week.  So while the overall market volatility has not been that high, I do feel like I have been through the wringer a bit.  Here are how my stocks did last week (note new MFI stocks have just a single day):

Index Stock 7/25/2014 Current Weekly Change Share
1 GTAT         15.49         17.36 12.1% 11.2%
2 GNW         12.91         13.41 3.9% 5.7%
3 KLIC         14.00         14.30 2.1% 4.6%
4 BBEP         21.46         21.81 1.6% 4.5%
5 AOD           8.57            8.70 1.5% 4.5%
6 RIOM           2.51            2.73 8.8% 3.4%
7 ATVI         22.54         23.36 3.6% 3.4%
8 NTC         12.60         12.61 0.1% 3.1%
9 GPS         42.57         41.91 -1.6% 3.0%
10 CSQ         11.53         11.84 2.7% 3.0%
11 FSC           9.84            9.70 -1.4% 2.9%
12 TPVG         15.15         15.50 2.3% 2.9%
13 TLM         10.67         10.39 -2.6% 2.8%
14 TNH      151.85       152.50 0.4% 2.7%
15 TGONF         10.87         10.76 -1.1% 2.7%
16 CSCO         25.03         24.43 -2.4% 2.6%
17 BAC-WTA           6.75            6.70 -0.7% 2.4%
18 RPXC         15.09         14.96 -0.9% 2.3%
19 NADL           9.58            9.74 1.7% 2.2%
20 AVG         17.65         17.71 0.3% 2.1%
21 TC           2.77            2.84 2.5% 2.0%
22 AGX         34.98         37.05 5.9% 2.0%
23 SNDK         91.43         94.03 2.8% 1.9%
24 SYNA         81.03         80.35 -0.8% 1.8%
25 KLAC         72.34         74.07 2.4% 1.7%
26 TSL         11.53         12.02 4.2% 1.7%
27 TIME         23.63         23.82 0.8% 1.7%
28 WNR         44.93         45.58 1.4% 1.7%
29 HIG-WT         25.35         26.51 4.6% 1.6%
30 ITRN         21.32         21.47 0.7% 1.4%
31 BRCD           9.34            9.33 -0.1% 1.4%
32 CBI         58.25         58.32 0.1% 1.4%
33 NSR         27.59         28.66 3.9% 1.2%
34 CF      246.87       252.41 2.2% 1.1%
35 CA         28.55         28.36 -0.7% 1.0%
36 O         43.80         44.71 2.1% 1.0%
37 RCII         24.75         24.80 0.2% 0.9%
38 OIBAX           6.09            6.15 1.0% 0.9%
39 Overall 3.5% 0.0%


So clearly have to be pleased with 3.5% gain on the week. Of course GTAT being up 11% and RIOM almost 9% helped.

MFI Portfolio

Obviously the big news here was the starting of a new tranche with a 25% boost in invested dollars.  As I mentioned, I am "paying" for that by drawing down some of my discretionary picks. I have started the process (sold TTOO, though about two days too early).  So to explain how my added dollars work in my tables - in my summary table I show how each of the four tranches would be doing had they each started with $25,000 ($100,000 total). That component will stay unchanged as will my comparison with R3K.  The part that will change is my annual IRR calculation with considers cash flows.  So it will now be a little bit lowered with a bunch of extra funds added that have no gains associated with them.

11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $17.71 $0.00 2.8% 9.8%
ATVI $17.71 $23.36 $0.20 33.0% 9.8%
GA $9.04 $11.90 $0.23 34.2% 9.8%
RPXC $17.04 $14.96 $0.00 -12.2% 9.8%
SYNA $48.01 $80.35 $0.00 67.4% 9.8%
Totals 25.1% 9.8%
2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $23.36 $0.20 37.5% 9.9%
KLAC $61.47 $74.07 $1.40 22.8% 9.9%
RPXC $16.22 $14.96 $0.00 -7.8% 9.9%
SNDK $69.55 $94.03 $0.53 36.0% 9.9%
WNR $39.11 $45.58 $0.78 18.5% 9.9%
Totals 21.4% 9.9%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $17.71 $0.00 -9.5% 4.5%
CA $29.54 $28.36 $0.25 -3.2% 4.5%
CSCO $22.79 $24.43 $0.19 8.1% 4.5%
NSR $25.82 $28.66 $0.00 11.0% 4.5%
RCII $28.78 $24.80 $0.23 -13.0% 4.5%
Totals -1.3% 4.5%
8/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CSCO $24.40 $24.43 $0.00 0.1% 0.0%
AGX $36.71 $37.05 $0.00 0.9% 0.0%
ITRN $21.32 $21.47 $0.00 0.7% 0.0%
BRCD $9.34 $9.33 $0.00 -0.1% 0.0%
CBI $58.25 $58.32 $0.00 0.1% 0.0%
Totals 0.4% 0.0%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 0.4% 25.1% 21.4% -1.3% 11.0%
Previous Tranche 41.4% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 55.2%
Tranche -2 14.1%              -              -               -   3.5%
MFI Overall Gain 61.9% 79.8% 116.4% 31.3% 72.3%
Current Balance      40,472       44,939     54,103      32,813    172,327
R3K Current Tranche 19.4% 50.1% 9.9% 4.5% 21.0%
R3K Overall Gain 45.9% 50.1% 33.1% 24.2% 37.0%
R3K Balance      36,469       37,524     33,264      29,722    136,980
Annualized IRR 27.2% 39.8% 65.2% 23.7% 40.0%


Looking at my MFI stocks this week, CSCO was in the news big time with so-so earnings. I felt the mini sell-off was a good entry point for my August tranche (Cisco: Buy the Dip).  Then ITRN (my newest stock) had what I felt were very solid earnings - I am excited by this pick (Ituran Location And Control Ltd. Presents Results For The Second Quarter ).  BRCD will announce next week (on the 21st) so we will find out relatively quickly whether they were the better pick over NUS.

Discretionary Portfolio 

The GTAT move this week really helped. Also RIOM, TSL and GNW had solid weeks.  So while I was a bit down on this portfolio last week - it does seem to be redeeming itself a mite.  I will probably need to move part of my AGX into this portfolio, I did not sell my excess AGX from August 2013 MFI tranche. So the component that is not in MFI 2014 needs to be considered discretionary.  I have also toyed with not selling my KLIC from August 2013 and making it now discretionary - but I am trying to be $ neutral with additional 25% to MFI and the cuts have to come from somewhere.


Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BAC-WTA       10,000         5.91                 6.70 13.4% 14.2% -0.8%
GNW       11,880         9.48               13.41 41.4% 26.9% 14.4%
GTAT       18,000       10.49               17.36 65.4% 6.1% 59.3%
HIG-WT         1,650       21.24               26.51 24.8% 19.0% 5.9%
KLIC         7,000       11.48               14.30 24.6% 14.4% 10.2%
RIOM       25,000         2.01                 2.73 35.5% 4.6% 30.9%
TC       20,000         2.94                 2.84 -3.4% -1.1% -2.3%
TLM         7,500       10.78               10.39 -3.6% -0.3% -3.4%
TSL         4,000       11.13               12.02 8.0% -0.5% 8.6%
        
        
        
        
        
        
Total Open 31.4% 9.8% 21.6%
Closed 2.4% 1.2% 1.2%
Combined 6.3% 2.3% 4.0%


Dividend Portfolio 

I was happy to see that David Einhorn took a large stake in TIME, I felt that vindicated my purchase to some extent (Einhorn’s Greenlight Sells Apple Shares; Buys Time Stake).  My purchase on TNH is already beginning to pay dividends (sorry, could not resist). TPVG announced earnings that under-whelmed me this past week (TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp. Announces Second Quarter 2014 Financial Results and Third Quarter 2014 Dividend of $0.32 Per ). I am really tempted to sell and make a small profit. However, even though I am not exactly a whale, the volume on TPVG is so light it is a bit difficult for me to exit (9,000 shares traded yesterday). So i expect I will hang in there for another quarter - but if I see a good exit point, I may take advantage.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD        14,186         8.03          8.70               10,916.30 17.9% 20.6% -2.7%
BBEP          5,713       16.74        21.81               10,650.92 41.4% 14.2% 27.2%
CSQ          7,001         8.72        11.84               14,277.43 59.2% 54.4% 4.8%
FSC          8,395         9.57          9.70                 3,767.52 6.1% 4.6% 1.4%
GPS          2,000       40.55        41.91                     440.00 3.9% 3.6% 0.3%
NADL          6,366         9.60          9.74                 1,200.00 3.4% 2.0% 1.4%
NTC          6,784       12.02        12.61                 2,671.53 8.2% 5.4% 2.9%
O              600       21.02        44.71                 9,460.47 187.7% 114.2% 73.4%
OIBAX          4,147         5.00          6.15                 8,261.12 62.8% 124.3% -61.6%
TGONF          7,000       10.27        10.76                 3,452.50 9.5% 18.8% -9.3%
TIME          2,000       22.89        23.82                              -   4.1% -0.2% 4.2%
TNH              500    148.10      152.50                 1,555.00 5.1% 2.0% 3.1%
TPVG          5,128       15.54        15.50                 1,958.70 2.2% 2.9% -0.7%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open                     68,611 18.6% 15.9% 2.7%
Closed 12.0% 10.9% 1.1%
Combined 13.1% 11.7% 1.4%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 17.5%
2014 Gain 6.4%
Here are some of my upcoming dividends.  I do love collecting the money!

Stock Shares x Date Div/Share Est New Shares Amount
AOD        14,276 8/22/14  $    0.057                          92.0              807
TPVG          5,128 8/28/14  $    0.300                          99.0          1,538
CA          1,013 8/28/14  $    0.250                            8.0              253
O              603 8/30/14  $    0.183                            2.0              110
OIBAX          4,167 8/30/14  $    0.015                          10.0                63
BBEP          5,713 9/7/14  $    0.168                          43.9              957
CSQ          7,051 9/8/14  $    0.083                          49.0              588
FSC          8,468 9/12/14  $    0.083                          72.0              706
NTC          6,784 9/12/14  $    0.057                          30.0              387
NADL          6,366 9/12/14  $    0.240                       156.0          1,528
RCII          1,041 9/30/14  $    0.230                            9.0              239
Actually, I think TPVG bumped their's to 32 cents.  Will need to check.

Overall MFI For 2014

My MFI Index for 2014 continues to struggle. I have it up 5.3%, which is 100 basis points behind the R3K. It did go up 1.7% this week, with UNTD and LQDT making double digit gains.  Looking at my 12 open monthly tracking portfolios, only one is beating R3K and the 12 on average are trailing by 4 points. It is becoming a bit of an uphill struggle.

Week By Week Graph For 2014

Here is my week by week graph for 2014. I think it really shows my rollercoaster effect, where I had pulled way ahead of the benchmark at end of June.  Gave that all back in July. And now I have re-accelerated in August.



Schloss 1
In Closing

For my next few blogs, I am going to list Walter Schloss' investing principles as I think it is important to keep them front and center.  It is so easy to get carried away in the emotions of the market.

I did want to close showing the "contest" I started at the beginning of the year. I picked 10 stocks and have tracked my ten picks against the top ten by several of the brokerage houses along with Eric, who reads this blog.  The GNW crash really hurt my performance.

Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
MFI Diary GNW          15.53            13.41                      -   -13.7%
GTAT             8.72            17.36                      -   99.1%
SBS          11.34               8.76                  0.31 -20.1%
HIMX          14.72               7.69                      -   -47.8%
HIG-WT          27.53            26.51                      -   -3.7%
KLIC          13.30            14.30                      -   7.5%
CF        233.04          252.41                  2.00 9.2%
BAC-WTA             6.47               6.70                      -   3.6%
RPXC          16.90            14.96                      -   -11.5%
ATVI          17.83            23.36                  0.20 32.1%
Total 5.5%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Barron's ABX          17.63            18.95                  0.10 8.1%
CNQ          33.10            41.73                  0.41 27.3%
DE          91.33            84.80                  0.51 -6.6%
GM          40.87            33.84                  0.30 -16.5%
INTC          25.96            34.17                  0.45 33.4%
MET          53.92            52.48                  0.63 -1.5%
NSRGY          73.59            77.14                  2.42 8.1%
SPG        152.16          168.85                  2.55 12.6%
AAL          30.02            39.19                      -   30.5%
C          52.11            48.72                  0.02 -6.5%
Total 8.9%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
ML/BAC ADM          43.40            49.74                  0.48 15.7%
CAT          90.81          105.74                  1.20 17.8%
CTL          31.85            40.40                  0.54 28.5%
C          52.11            48.72                  0.02 -6.5%
CSCO          22.43            24.43                  0.36 10.5%
DVA          63.37            72.11                      -   13.8%
XOM        101.20            99.03                  1.26 -0.9%
GM          40.87            33.84                  0.30 -16.5%
NEE          85.62            96.38                  0.73 13.4%
NUE          53.38            52.00                  0.37 -1.9%
Total 7.4%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Eric Y CA          33.65            28.36                  0.50 -14.2%
CLCT          17.15            20.49                  0.65 23.3%
CSCO          22.43            24.43                  0.36 10.5%
LO          50.68            60.55                  1.23 21.9%
MANT          29.93            28.04                  0.42 -4.9%
MSFT          37.41            44.79                  0.56 21.2%
PETS          16.63            14.01                  0.34 -13.7%
RGR          73.09            50.30                  1.08 -29.7%
SPOK          14.28            14.90                  0.25 6.1%
VCI          34.25            34.02                      -   -0.7%
Total 2.0%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Cantor/Fitz AAPL          80.15            97.98                  0.91 23.4%
JNPR          22.57            22.99                      -   1.9%
DLR          49.12            65.50                      -   33.3%
FB          54.65            73.63                      -   34.7%
GOOG    1,120.71      1,146.96                      -   2.3%
DATA          68.93            58.99                      -   -14.4%
SPLK          68.67            42.75                      -   -37.7%
SVU             7.29               9.31                      -   27.7%
TMO        111.35          121.55                      -   9.2%
VSTM          11.40               8.99                      -   -21.1%
Total 5.9%

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