Thursday, August 14, 2014

August 15th, 2014 MFI Tranche

MFI August 15th 2014 Tranche

Well, my MFI tranche from last year is officially closed.  I have sold the RPXC, which was a loss, to harvest short term capital losses. I will sell the winners on Monday, to make sure they are long term gains.  But for the purposes of tracking, they are officially closed today.  It was an excellent tranche:

8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $247.43 $4.50 34.5% 19.4%
FLR $66.06 $73.03 $0.53 11.4% 19.4%
AGX $15.60 $36.71 $0.75 140.1% 19.4%
KLIC $11.29 $14.26 $0.00 26.3% 19.4%
RPXC $15.92 $15.09 $0.00 -5.2% 19.4%
Totals 41.4% 19.4%

It trounced the benchmark R3K, having results twice as good!  I wish I could guarantee that every time. But when you pick five stocks, one real stinker or one super stock can make a big difference.  Such was the case here as AGX soared 140%!

The Next Five Stocks

I have kicked around a lot of ideas.  And it is possible that I will change my mind before noon tomorrow when I plan to make the buy.  But here is my intention, assuming no material news or change in prices:

  1. AGX - this was such a great stock that I am going to roll them over.  I will have to sell some shares as they are way higher than a full MFI stake with the 140% pop.
  2. CSCO - this is a stock in my May tranche and in my kid's college funds. Not sexy, but should be a solid pick.
  3. ITRN - this is a mid cap Israeli stock on the screen. They pay a 3% dividend and seem to have a nice little niche.
  4. BRCD - this is a former go-go stock from the 2000 internet bubble days. They (like NVDA which I owned a year ago) are a solid company, earning real money with a great balance sheet.
  5. CBI - Basically an exchange from FLR to CBI.  Class engineering and construction firm. They seem really beaten down.
I will be increasing the funds committed to this tranche by 25%.  That will not show up in the tables I produce, though it will be reflected in my YTD overall portfolio figures.

The Rejects

Here are ten stocks I will track as bridesmaids: HLF, NUS, HRB, VIAB, RGR, BCOR, CA, BKE, AAPL and ACN.

Stay tuned this weekend for the official list.


2 comments:

JC said...

It would be very insightful if you shared your reasoning behind your choices to include or exclude. What metrics were you looking at? In other words, why include CSCO but exclude AAPL? How did BCOR come up short, but BRCD made the cut? That would be a fascinating post. Thanks for sharing!

John Carney said...

Marsh,

The ema for 35 days and 105 days seems to favor AGX,CSCO,BRCD.

My guess is that for now the market agrees with three of your picks.

Moved a Octane elliptical 37e into the office today and bought a new plant I named the money tree.

Getting set to make another ran at MFI within a year.