Tobacco Stocks
Obviously a lot of people have strong emotional feelings about tobacco stocks. The companies certainly create a product that kills and is addictive. There have been a lot of tobacco stocks on the screens of late, and generally, as far as MFI is concerned, they have been a good choice. Here is a summary from my database:
| Stock | Count | Avg Change |
| LO | 39 | 30.2% |
| MO | 7 | 12.4% |
| RAI | 9 | 25.6% |
| 12 | 22.7% | |
| Grand Total | 67 | 26.3% |
Most Times On The List
I have had 101 monthly tracking portfolios created. I thought it would be interesting to look at all stocks that have been in the tracking portfolio 30 or more times. Does a stock do better if it is on the list all the time? You would not think so. Let us check it out.
| Stock | Count | Avg Change |
| USMO | 81 | 12.5% |
| 69 | 40.4% | |
| EGY | 62 | -1.6% |
| 58 | 15.3% | |
| 54 | -2.3% | |
| 53 | 19.9% | |
| 53 | -3.7% | |
| 52 | 19.5% | |
| 51 | 1.3% | |
| 45 | 14.5% | |
| 43 | 15.8% | |
| 43 | 31.8% | |
| 40 | 1.6% | |
| AGX | 40 | 39.7% |
| LO | 39 | 30.2% |
| HLF | 39 | 42.8% |
| 39 | -14.0% | |
| TNAV | 38 | -4.1% |
| 38 | -15.5% | |
| 38 | 7.4% | |
| KG | 37 | -13.7% |
| 36 | 28.2% | |
| 36 | -5.6% | |
| 35 | 26.0% | |
| amed | 35 | -28.7% |
| LPS | 34 | 22.0% |
| 34 | 7.4% | |
| 34 | 1.2% | |
| 34 | -6.9% | |
| 33 | 24.4% | |
| QCOR | 33 | 101.0% |
| GTAT | 33 | 32.8% |
| 32 | -6.7% | |
| 31 | 3.6% | |
| CPLA | 31 | 27.2% |
| 31 | 20.9% | |
| PETS | 30 | 7.5% |
| CF | 30 | 26.2% |
The weighted average is 13.5%. Every stock I have ever tracked is up on average 9.6%. So common stocks in total have been better than average. How about stocks on the list 5 times or less? Hmm, it is really too long a list to publish. But stocks on there just once, have gone up by 14.6% on average - stocks on 2 times are up 15.2%.
By Market Cap
I have shown this table several times, but it is such an important table it bears repeating. Group 1 is essentially $1b and greater in market cap.
| Purchase Year | Largest | Smallest | Total |
| 2006 | 23.6% | 7.3% | 13.9% |
| 2007 | -15.4% | -22.9% | -20.5% |
| 2008 | -2.5% | -10.3% | -8.2% |
| 2009 | 32.5% | 42.3% | 39.3% |
| 2010 | 16.1% | 3.6% | 8.0% |
| 2011 | -2.0% | 0.2% | -0.8% |
| 2012 | 37.2% | 19.7% | 27.5% |
| 2013 | 27.3% | 11.8% | 20.4% |
| 2014 | 3.2% | -0.3% | 1.8% |
| Grand Total | 15.2% | 5.8% | 9.6% |
This is stunning. Just by picking stocks greater than $1 billion in market cap from the 50 over $100m screen, you would have significantly outperformed (the R3K over this stretch is 8.8% per year).
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2 comments:
Going to one of our daughters for Crabs for Mother Day. I like modelo but I am cheap. My keg of keystone light last a long time because my friends won't touch it.
Looking at the table by Market Cap I would have thought the draw down would be a lot greater than your table shows.
Only -15.4% and -2.5%. Can you help me understand why this did so well vs SPY losses of over +45%.
John,
the SPY numbers you are thinking of is a single point in time number, so say from January 1st 2008 to December 31st 2008. My numbers represent 12 portfolios bought monthly and held for a year. So while a monthly tracking portfolio bought in January 2008 likely mirrored the SPY results for 2008, a monthly tracking portfolio bought in December 2008 did very very well. My number is the blend of all 2008 portfolios.
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