Sunday, May 04, 2014

How Is MFI Doing This Year?

Thought I would publish a couple of quick statistics on how MFI has fared in 2014.

Year To Date and Inception To Date Results

Annual Inception to Date
Year Russell MFI Russell ITD MFI ITD
2006 11.40% 15.03% 11.40% 15.03%
2007 4.09% -6.69% 15.96% 7.34%
2008 -37.05% -37.97% -27.00% -33.42%
2009 32.51% 45.18% -3.27% -3.34%
2010 18.38% 22.77% 14.50% 18.67%
2011 -0.56% -10.47% 13.87% 6.25%
2012 16.43% 9.70% 32.57% 16.56%
2013 33.01% 51.70% 76.34% 76.82%
2014 2.05% 2.25% 79.95% 80.80%

This table shows how my MFI Index has done every year and how it has done in aggregate since 2006. Recall, the index is a basket of 50 stocks from the screen at the start of each year, greater than $100m market cap and held for a year.

As you can see, 2014 is pretty much a dead heat (2.05% vs 2.25%) and also since the beginning, pretty much a dead heat.  That seems discouraging, but I have shown subsets of the index that have done very well (larger cap stocks - over $900m and dividend paying stocks, 2.6% or hreater).

Individual Stocks In Index In 2014

Index Stock Start Last Quarter Current YTD Change Quarterly Change
1   ATVI      17.83         20.44         19.94 11.8% -2.4%
2   MO      38.39         37.43         40.45 5.4% 8.1%
3   APOL      27.32         34.24         29.29 7.2% -14.5%
4   AAPL    561.02      539.79       595.63 6.2% 10.3%
5   AGX      27.56         29.73         27.10 -1.7% -8.8%
6   BAH      19.15         22.10         23.55 23.0% 6.6%
7   BKE      52.56         46.02         47.41 -9.8% 3.0%
8   CA      33.65         31.23         30.16 -10.4% -3.4%
9   CACI      73.22         73.80         72.78 -0.6% -1.4%
10   CHE      76.62         89.65         83.71 9.3% -6.6%
11   CRUS      20.43         19.87         22.52 10.3% 13.3%
12   CSCO      22.43         22.59         23.30 3.9% 3.2%
13   COH      56.13         50.00         44.22 -21.2% -11.6%
14   CRTX         9.49           9.50            9.50 0.1% 0.0%
15   DLX      52.19         52.72         55.59 6.5% 5.4%
16   DHX         7.25           7.46            7.29 0.6% -2.3%
17   EBIX      14.71         17.15         15.97 8.5% -6.9%
18   EGL      33.40         45.05         43.07 29.0% -4.4%
19   GME      49.26         41.10         40.25 -18.3% -2.1%
20   GTIV      12.41           9.12            7.69 -38.0% -15.7%
21   GNI      68.10         19.06         19.95 -70.7% 4.7%
22   HLF      78.70         57.57         60.25 -23.4% 4.7%
23   IQNT      11.41         14.61         14.73 29.1% 0.8%
24   ESI      33.58         28.68         27.12 -19.2% -5.4%
25   LPS      37.38         37.30         37.30 -0.2% 0.0%
26   LQDT      22.66         26.05         17.28 -23.7% -33.7%
27   LO      50.68         54.70         59.41 17.2% 8.6%
28   MSFT      37.41         41.27         39.97 6.8% -3.1%
29   MYGN      20.98         34.19         40.05 90.9% 17.1%
30   NATR      17.32         13.78         13.53 -21.9% -1.8%
31   NOC    114.61      123.99       121.34 5.9% -2.1%
32   PDLI         8.44           8.31            8.46 0.2% 0.0%
33   PFMT      10.30           9.05            8.60 -16.5% -5.0%
34   PETS      16.63         13.58         12.83 -22.9% -5.5%
35   PRSC      25.72         28.28         39.68 54.3% 40.3%
36   QCOR      54.45         65.23         83.35 53.1% 27.8%
37   RTN      90.70         98.79         96.44 6.3% -2.4%
38   RAI      49.99         54.09         56.61 13.2% 4.7%
39   RPXC      16.90         16.28         16.56 -2.0% 1.7%
40   SAIC      33.07         37.67         38.82 17.4% 3.1%
41   SWHC      13.49         14.62         15.88 17.7% 8.6%
42   STRA      34.47         46.43         43.42 26.0% -6.5%
43   RGR      73.09         59.80         68.33 -6.5% 14.3%
44   UIS      33.57         30.46         24.16 -28.0% -20.7%
45   UNTD      13.76         11.56         11.04 -19.8% -4.5%
46   USMO      14.28         18.17         16.26 13.8% -10.5%
47   USNA      75.58         75.34         69.84 -7.6% -7.3%
48   VCI      34.25         34.02         34.02 -0.7% 0.0%
49   VGR      16.37         21.54         21.56 31.7% 0.1%
50   WTW      32.93         20.54         23.24 -29.4% 13.1%
Total    17,682      18,028       18,080 2.3% 0.3%

This table shows all 50 stocks making up the 2014 index and how they have done in 2014 and in the 2nd quarter.  An interesting one is WTW.  After an abysmal start in 2014, they have bounced up 13% in the 2nd quarter on better than expected earnings.  This is a stock I would have never bought and it is doing well in 2q.  So this shows that sometimes a stock gets beaten down so far, people assume things will be worse than they actually are - but then when the world does not totally crater, they get a good bounce.

Tribute To May 6th 2013 Tranche

Here are my 5 stocks from the tranche that sunsets this week.

5/6/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
KLIC $11.40 $14.48 $0.00 27.0% 19.1%
CYOU $29.24 $28.02 $0.00 -4.2% 19.1%
RDA $9.74 $16.45 $0.10 70.0% 19.1%
NVDA $13.85 $18.43 $0.32 35.4% 19.1%
CF $183.97 $243.37 $2.80 33.8% 19.1%
Totals 32.4% 19.1%

As you can see, it was a most excellent tranche.  I will sell KLIC, RDA, NVDA and CF on Tuesday.

Here are the 5 stocks I will likely buy:

5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ca $29.91 $29.91 $0.00 0.0% 0.0%
csco $22.94 $22.94 $0.00 0.0% 0.0%
rcii $29.14 $29.14 $0.00 0.0% 0.0%
nsr $26.63 $26.63 $0.00 0.0% 0.0%
avg $19.20 $19.20 $0.00 0.0% 0.0%
Totals 0.0% 0.0%

Contest

At the start of the year, I picked a basket of 10 stocks and have been tracking against ten picks by some of the major brokerage houses.  I am holding my own thus far!

Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
MFI Diary GNW          15.53            17.81                      -   14.7%
GTAT             8.72            16.91                      -   93.9%
SBS          11.34               9.93                      -   -12.4%
HIMX          14.72               8.78                      -   -40.4%
HIG-WT          27.53            27.21                      -   -1.2%
KLIC          13.30            14.48                      -   8.9%
CF        233.04          243.37                  1.00 4.9%
BAC-WTA             6.47               7.50                      -   15.9%
RPXC          16.90            16.56                      -   -2.0%
ATVI          17.83            19.94                  0.20 13.0%
Total 9.5%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Barron's ABX          17.63            17.40                      -   -1.3%
CNQ          33.10            40.92                      -   23.6%
DE          91.33            92.92                      -   1.7%
GM          40.87            34.97                      -   -14.4%
INTC          25.96            26.41                  0.23 2.6%
MET          53.92            51.89                  0.28 -3.3%
NSRGY          73.59            77.14                      -   4.8%
SPG        152.16          173.07                  1.25 14.6%
AAL          30.02            36.49                      -   21.6%
C          52.11            47.73                  0.01 -8.4%
Total 4.2%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
ML/BAC ADM          43.40            43.55                  0.24 0.9%
CAT          90.81          105.01                  1.20 17.0%
CTL          31.85            34.83                  0.54 11.1%
C          52.11            47.73                  0.01 -8.4%
CSCO          22.43            22.94                  0.36 3.9%
DVA          63.37            67.39                      -   6.3%
XOM        101.20          102.01                  0.63 1.4%
GM          40.87            34.97                  0.30 -13.7%
NEE          85.62            97.99                  0.73 15.3%
NUE          53.38            52.35                  0.37 -1.2%
Total 3.3%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Eric Y CA          33.65            29.91                  0.25 -10.4%
CLCT          17.15            22.68                  0.33 34.1%
CSCO          22.43            22.94                  0.36 3.9%
LO          50.68            58.79                  0.62 17.2%
MANT          29.93            29.92                  0.21 0.7%
MSFT          37.41            39.69                  0.28 6.8%
PETS          16.63            12.66                  0.17 -22.9%
RGR          73.09            67.79                  0.54 -6.5%
USMO          14.28            16.13                  0.13 13.8%
VCI          34.25            34.02                      -   -0.7%
Total 3.6%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Cantor/Fitz AAPL        561.02          592.58                  3.05 6.2%
JNPR          22.57            24.75                      -   9.7%
DLR          49.12            54.00                      -   9.9%
FB          54.65            60.46                      -   10.6%
GOOG    1,120.71      1,055.86                      -   -5.8%
DATA          68.93            58.46                      -   -15.2%
SPLK          68.67            54.87                      -   -20.1%
SVU             7.29               7.12                      -   -2.3%
TMO        111.35          114.22                      -   2.6%
VSTM          11.40               8.01                      -   -29.7%
Total -3.4%

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