Saturday, May 24, 2014

Memorial Weekend Update - 2014

Memorial Weekend Update

As I mentioned last night, it was a strong week for me.  I was up 2.25%.  It was a pretty active week.  I finally terminated my LMNS position.  I also got out of FGL and KERX. And I started a new position in GPS as a dividend stock.  I also added money to the college funds of my children and bought LNC.  Busy week.

My MFI index (which is a basket of 50 MFI stocks) was pretty much flat for the week.  It was really hurt by ESI, which tumbled 26% on earnings.

MFI Portfolio


My MFI portfolio continues to be a champion.  It popped another 1.7% and is now up 5.6% on the year (my overall portfolio is up 7.11%).  A key for this portfolio of late is that I have really managed (probably by luck as much as anything) to avoid any absolute lemons.  NSR, a recent addition popped 8% this week on news they are a finalist in bid with FCC (Neustar Rises on FCC Meet on Numbers-Switching Contract). Now for all I know, they will not get that contract, which would be a negative for the stock (another MFI stock, LQDT, lost out on some government contracts this year and is down 32% on the year).

The table below shows my 4 MFI tranches and how they are doing against their benchmarks (they are all leading):

8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $246.66 $3.00 33.3% 15.8%
FLR $66.06 $74.11 $0.53 13.0% 15.8%
AGX $15.60 $29.96 $0.75 96.9% 15.8%
KLIC $11.29 $14.21 $0.00 25.9% 15.8%
RPXC $15.92 $16.49 $0.00 3.6% 15.8%
Totals 34.5% 15.8%
11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $19.95 $0.00 15.9% 6.4%
ATVI $17.71 $20.68 $0.20 17.9% 6.4%
GA $9.04 $11.79 $0.23 33.0% 6.4%
RPXC $17.04 $16.49 $0.00 -3.2% 6.4%
SYNA $48.01 $59.25 $0.00 23.4% 6.4%
Totals 17.4% 6.4%
2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $20.68 $0.20 21.9% 6.5%
KLAC $61.47 $64.18 $0.90 5.9% 6.5%
RPXC $16.22 $16.49 $0.00 1.7% 6.5%
SNDK $69.55 $94.27 $0.23 35.9% 6.5%
WNR $39.11 $39.71 $0.52 2.9% 6.5%
Totals 13.6% 6.5%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $19.95 $0.00 1.9% 1.3%
CA $29.54 $29.19 $0.00 -1.2% 1.3%
CSCO $22.79 $24.52 $0.00 7.6% 1.3%
NSR $25.82 $28.93 $0.00 12.1% 1.3%
RCII $28.78 $28.49 $0.00 -1.0% 1.3%
Totals 3.9% 1.3%

Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 34.5% 17.4% 13.6% 3.9% 17.9%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 40.5%
MFI Overall Gain 53.4% 68.7% 102.6% 38.2% 65.7%
Current Balance      38,358       42,185     50,638      34,545    165,726
R3K Current Tranche 15.8% 45.5% 6.5% 1.3% 17.3%
R3K Overall Gain 41.5% 45.5% 29.0% 20.4% 33.7%
R3K Balance      35,365       36,372     32,238      29,722    133,697
Annualized IRR 27.3% 41.1% 71.6% 36.1% 49.9%

I am pleased with the start of the most recent tranche, up 3.9%. The five stocks I sold have run off poorly so far, down 1.1% (CYOU is the worst). The 10 alternative stocks I considered are up 2%, with SNDK the best performer (part of my Feb tranche) and BWC and COH the dogs. As an aside, I do laugh that Yahoo finance often gets confused on headlines for Coach, here is a sample (Nuggets' President Says Brian Shaw Won't Coach the Knicks ).

Discretionary Portfolio


Sometimes I think I should just call this the GTAT portfolio as it seems to swing with the fortunes of GTAT.  This week, GTAT spiked up about 14%, over $1 on Friday on news that Samsung is considering the usage of sapphire (Samsung Sees Sparkle In Sapphire).  Now I am pretty sure GTAT cannot do business with Samsung due to exclusivity of AAPL deal.  So spike was either due to people not understanding that or the fact that it increased probability of AAPL using greater amount of sapphire sooner.

I did increase my BAC-WTA position this week.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BAC-WTA         8,000         5.73                 6.81 18.8% 14.6% 4.2%
EDV             139    101.20            104.12 2.9% 3.8% -0.9%
GNW       11,000         9.16               17.28 88.7% 26.5% 62.2%
GTAT       14,000         8.64               15.95 84.6% 6.8% 77.9%
HIG-WT         1,650       21.24               25.99 22.4% 15.8% 6.6%
KLIC         7,000       11.48               14.21 23.8% 11.4% 12.5%
RIOM       25,000         2.25                 1.81 -19.6% 1.9% -21.5%
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
Total Open 47.8% 12.7% 35.1%
Closed 3.0% 1.4% 1.6%
Combined 8.0% 2.7% 5.3%

Dividend Portfolio


As I mentioned, I sold FGL and bought GPS this week.  This portfolio is up 3.2% so far this year, so not great, but not terrible considering the overall bleah-ness of the markets.  Of course the real juice of this portfolio is the fact that it delivers income of a bit more than $58,000 a year (with my multiplier).  It is real money and while I do not need or rely on that income stream now, I plan to keep building it up as I move towards retirement age.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD        14,005         8.02             8.62              9,323.45 15.7% 17.6% -1.9%
BBEP          5,713       16.74           20.84              7,788.60 32.7% 11.2% 21.5%
CSQ          6,905         8.67           11.68            12,579.25 55.7% 51.3% 4.4%
FSC          8,264         9.57             9.33              1,675.47 -0.4% 1.9% -2.3%
GPS          2,000       40.55           41.14                           -   1.5% 0.8% 0.6%
NTC          6,691       12.01           12.64              1,516.77 7.2% 2.6% 4.6%
O              595       20.83           42.93              9,133.01 179.8% 110.5% 69.3%
OIBAX          4,125         5.00             6.16              8,067.44 62.4% 119.1% -56.7%
PM          1,000       78.60           86.57                  940.00 11.3% 2.0% 9.4%
TGONF          7,000       10.27             9.90              2,367.50 -0.3% 15.7% -16.0%
TPVG          5,029       15.55           15.49                  450.00 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open                  53,841 17.2% 15.1% 2.1%
Closed 12.1% 10.9% 1.2%
Combined 12.9% 11.6% 1.4%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 17.3%
2014 Gain 3.2%

 Stock   Shares   Ann Dividend / Share   Yield   Projected Dividend   Worth 
 AOD         14,005         0.68 7.9%                    9,495     120,720
 BBEP           5,713         1.95 9.4%                  11,141     119,063
 CSQ           6,905         1.00 8.6%                    6,905        80,653
 FSC           8,264         1.00 10.7%                    8,264        77,100
 GPS           2,000         0.88 2.1%                    1,760        82,280
 NTC           6,691         0.68 5.4%                    4,577        84,580
 O               595         2.17 5.1%                    1,292        25,565
 OIBAX           4,125         0.29 4.7%                    1,196        25,412
 PM           1,000         3.76 4.3%                    3,760        86,570
 TGONF           7,000         0.60 6.1%                    4,200        69,300
 TPVG           5,029         1.20 7.7%                    6,035        77,899
              
              
              
              
              
              
              
              
              
 Total  6.9%                  58,625     849,143

Call It A Wrap


Well, it is time for me to do some of my knee/leg exercises.  So I will call it a wrap for now.  I will likely post some more later this weekend as it is a long weekend and with my knee (2 weeks out of surgery), I am not going to be out & about much.

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