I am recuperating from my ACL surgery on Thursday. Guess I am doing as well as could be expected. I am taking a pain killer once every 6 hours. I knew it was bad when the doctor said he would have to go through some nerves to perform the surgery.
I am "stuck" upstairs, the plan is I will try going down tomorrow. But I am relieved to get the actual surgery behind me.
As my readers know, I have several "bear flags" that I watch. One is Decision Moose, which went out of stocks on April 14th. Another is the 50 EMA for Russell 2000 versus the 200 EMA. It went bear the past week as you can see from my table below:
| 50 Day EMA | 200 Day EMA | Difference |
| IWM 50 EMA | IWM 200 EMA | Difference |
| 113.38 | 113.42 | 0.0% |
| SPY 50 EMA | SPY 200 EMA | Difference |
| 186.50 | 182.63 | 2.1% |
| IWV 50 EMA | IWV 200 EMA | Difference |
| 111.74 | 109.58 | 2.0% |
Week Overview
Not a very good week for my portfolio as GTAT really took it on the chin. I was down 2.9%, while the R3K was down only about 30 basis points. That means I am up a smidgen over 4% for the year. It has been tough sledding. Here is a table showing all my stocks during the week:
| Index | Stock | Current | Weekly Change | Share | |
| 1 | GNW | 17.81 | 18.22 | 2.3% | 8.7% |
| 2 | GTAT | 16.91 | 13.21 | -21.9% | 8.0% |
| 3 | 14.48 | 14.15 | -2.3% | 5.5% | |
| 4 | AOD | 8.57 | 8.55 | -0.2% | 5.2% |
| 5 | BBEP | 20.13 | 19.83 | -1.5% | 4.9% |
| 6 | AVG | 19.20 | 19.00 | -1.0% | 4.3% |
| 7 | RPXC | 16.56 | 16.14 | -2.5% | 4.0% |
| 8 | PM | 85.38 | 86.40 | 1.2% | 3.8% |
| 9 | NTC | 12.58 | 12.58 | 0.0% | 3.7% |
| 10 | 19.94 | 20.79 | 4.3% | 3.6% | |
| 11 | FGL | 21.62 | 20.69 | -4.3% | 3.6% |
| 12 | CSQ | 11.26 | 11.41 | 1.3% | 3.4% |
| 13 | TPVG | 15.11 | 15.15 | 0.3% | 3.3% |
| 14 | LMNS | 8.74 | 8.93 | 2.2% | 3.1% |
| 15 | TGONF | 10.21 | 10.09 | -1.2% | 3.1% |
| 16 | RIOM | 1.98 | 1.97 | -0.5% | 3.0% |
| 17 | FSC | 9.34 | 9.27 | -0.7% | 2.7% |
| 18 | 85.64 | 88.84 | 3.7% | 2.2% | |
| 19 | HIG-WT | 27.21 | 26.37 | -3.1% | 1.9% |
| 20 | BAC-WTA | 7.50 | 7.12 | -5.1% | 1.9% |
| 21 | AGX | 27.10 | 28.47 | 5.1% | 1.8% |
| 22 | 63.20 | 63.11 | -0.1% | 1.8% | |
| 23 | GA | 11.73 | 11.72 | -0.1% | 1.8% |
| 24 | WNR | 43.26 | 40.02 | -7.5% | 1.8% |
| 25 | 61.11 | 59.44 | -2.7% | 1.6% | |
| 26 | NSR | 25.79 | 26.42 | 2.4% | 1.3% |
| 27 | 28.49 | 29.22 | 2.6% | 1.3% | |
| 28 | 22.72 | 23.02 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 29 | CA | 29.48 | 29.41 | -0.2% | 1.3% |
| 30 | CF | 243.37 | 235.66 | -3.2% | 1.2% |
| 31 | O | 43.21 | 43.78 | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| 32 | 75.45 | 75.10 | 0.0% | 1.1% | |
| 33 | 6.14 | 6.17 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 34 | HIMX | 8.78 | 6.68 | -23.9% | 0.9% |
| 35 | EDV | 104.51 | 102.17 | -2.2% | 0.6% |
Wow, now that I look at the 22% crash in GTAT, I am glad I was on medication! Yeow! Amazingly, GNW has passed up GTAT for pole position. I am very glad I chose to see 30% of my shares at 16.72 this week.
Obviously a changing of the guard this week, as I rolled over the May tranche during the week. So fare three well KLIC, CF, RDA, NVDA and CYOU. Welcome NSR, RCII, CA, CSCO and AVG.
So far, it looks "smart", thought obviously three trading days are meaningless. My new tranche is up 30 basis points, while the run off is off 2.8%. I do strongly believe now is the time to be rotating to bigger companies. I have seen this movie before.
Here are all my tranches going back to the beginning:
| 8/15/12 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| DLB | $34.43 | $33.04 | $4.00 | 7.6% | 22.1% |
| $13.98 | $18.95 | $0.00 | 35.6% | 22.1% | |
| $30.19 | $31.92 | $0.92 | 8.8% | 22.1% | |
| NSU | $3.62 | $3.33 | $0.12 | -4.6% | 22.1% |
| $19.96 | $24.52 | $0.00 | 22.8% | 22.1% | |
| Totals | 14.1% | 22.1% | |||
| 11/15/12 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| $537.62 | $527.28 | $8.75 | -0.3% | 36.7% | |
| $40.21 | $69.23 | $0.86 | 74.3% | 36.7% | |
| LPS | $23.89 | $34.26 | $0.40 | 45.1% | 36.7% |
| VIAB | $49.12 | $80.94 | $1.15 | 67.1% | 36.7% |
| WU | $12.77 | $16.40 | $0.50 | 32.3% | 36.7% |
| Totals | 43.7% | 36.7% | |||
| 2/1/13 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AAPL | $450.60 | $500.66 | $8.75 | 13.1% | 21.1% |
| GA | $6.10 | $11.01 | $0.65 | 91.2% | 21.1% |
| STRZA | $16.06 | $27.98 | $0.00 | 74.2% | 21.1% |
| CA | $25.07 | $32.08 | $1.00 | 32.0% | 21.1% |
| NUS | $41.94 | $116.59 | $1.20 | 180.8% | 21.1% |
| Totals | 78.3% | 21.1% | |||
| 5/6/2013 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| KLIC | $11.40 | $14.44 | $0.00 | 26.7% | 18.9% |
| CYOU | $29.24 | $28.02 | $0.00 | -4.2% | 18.9% |
| RDA | $9.74 | $16.79 | $0.10 | 73.5% | 18.9% |
| NVDA | $13.85 | $18.43 | $0.32 | 35.4% | 18.9% |
| CF | $183.97 | $243.22 | $2.80 | 33.7% | 18.9% |
| Totals | 33.0% | 18.9% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| CF | $187.26 | $235.66 | $2.00 | 26.9% | 14.3% |
| $66.06 | $75.10 | $0.53 | 14.5% | 14.3% | |
| AGX | $15.60 | $28.47 | $0.75 | 87.3% | 14.3% |
| $11.29 | $14.15 | $0.00 | 25.3% | 14.3% | |
| RPXC | $15.92 | $16.14 | $0.00 | 1.4% | 14.3% |
| Totals | 31.1% | 14.3% | |||
| 11/15/13 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AVG | $17.22 | $19.00 | $0.00 | 10.3% | 5.1% |
| $17.71 | $20.79 | $0.20 | 18.5% | 5.1% | |
| GA | $9.04 | $11.72 | $0.23 | 32.2% | 5.1% |
| RPXC | $17.04 | $16.14 | $0.00 | -5.3% | 5.1% |
| $48.01 | $59.44 | $0.00 | 23.8% | 5.1% | |
| Totals | 15.9% | 5.1% | |||
| 2/1/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| ATVI | $17.13 | $20.79 | $0.20 | 22.5% | 5.1% |
| $61.47 | $63.11 | $0.45 | 3.4% | 5.1% | |
| RPXC | $16.22 | $16.14 | $0.00 | -0.5% | 5.1% |
| $69.55 | $88.84 | $0.23 | 28.1% | 5.1% | |
| WNR | $39.11 | $40.02 | $0.26 | 3.0% | 5.1% |
| Totals | 11.3% | 5.1% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| AVG | $19.57 | $19.00 | $0.00 | -2.9% | -0.1% |
| CA | $29.54 | $29.41 | $0.00 | -0.5% | -0.1% |
| $22.79 | $23.02 | $0.00 | 1.0% | -0.1% | |
| NSR | $25.82 | $26.42 | $0.00 | 2.3% | -0.1% |
| $28.78 | $29.22 | $0.00 | 1.5% | -0.1% | |
| Totals | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 31.1% | 15.9% | 11.3% | 0.3% | 15.2% |
| Previous Tranche | 14.1% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 40.6% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 49.5% | 66.6% | 98.4% | 33.4% | 62.0% |
| Current Balance | 37,378 | 41,658 | 49,598 | 33,356 | 161,990 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 14.3% | 43.6% | 5.1% | -0.1% | 15.7% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 39.6% | 43.6% | 27.3% | 18.8% | 32.3% |
| R3K Balance | 34,907 | 35,899 | 31,817 | 29,722 | 132,345 |
| Annualized IRR | 26.1% | 41.1% | 71.5% | 32.9% | 49.3% |
Discretionary Portfolio
Looking at GTAT, viewer discretion probably should be advised. That being said, I do believe the sell-off in GTAT was over done. I doubt I will buy more, as the bear flags suggest to me that this is not a time to be a hero, but for someone who is patient - I still think this stock is up nicely a year from now. My only sticking point (which I did not see addressed in the earnings call) is all the CEO selling.
I did add two new positions during the week. I bought (with my multiplier) 2,000 shares of AVG the day before they announced their earnings. That has worked well so far. Then Friday, I bought 750 shares of DTV as I noted a lot of bullish options action on them. Not meant to be a long term hold, though they look pretty cheap.
| Stock | Shares | Avg Cost | Current Price | Pct Change | R3K Change | Diff |
| AVG | 2,000 | 18.29 | 19.00 | 3.9% | 0.0% | 3.9% |
| BAC-WTA | 6,000 | 5.35 | 7.12 | 33.1% | 18.9% | 14.2% |
| DTV | 750 | 87.11 | 88.01 | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% |
| EDV | 139 | 101.20 | 102.17 | 1.0% | 2.4% | -1.5% |
| GNW | 11,000 | 9.16 | 18.22 | 99.0% | 24.8% | 74.2% |
| GTAT | 14,000 | 8.64 | 13.21 | 52.9% | 5.4% | 47.5% |
| HIG-WT | 1,650 | 21.24 | 26.37 | 24.2% | 14.3% | 9.9% |
| 7,000 | 11.48 | 14.15 | 23.3% | 9.9% | 13.4% | |
| LMNS | 8,000 | 12.49 | 8.93 | -28.5% | -1.2% | -27.3% |
| RIOM | 25,000 | 2.25 | 1.97 | -12.5% | 0.5% | -13.1% |
| Total Open | 26.2% | 7.8% | 18.4% | |||
| Closed | 3.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | |||
| Combined | 7.5% | 2.5% | 4.9% | |||
Dividend Portfolio
Well, even my most boring portfolio struggled during the week. FGL had sub par results, which was my fear. I did sell a fair amount of my position, but still got hit by the shrapnel. Then FSC went down a bunch this week. They also announced earnings, but between the surgery, new MFI tranche and so many other companies announcing earnings I did not really get a chance to dig into them.
Let us face it, every now and then you can have a bad stretch. On the margin I have done the right thing and have moved a lot to cash. I have cut my biggest mistake, LMNS by 60% (good thing!) and with one or two exceptions I like my portfolio in total. So I will continue to make moves on the margins, keep the majority of my cash hoard and wait for a golden opportunity.
| Stock | Shares | Avg Cost | Current Price | Dividends Received | Pct Change | R3K Change | Diff |
| AOD | 14,005 | 8.02 | 8.55 | 8,532.19 | 14.2% | 16.1% | -1.9% |
| BBEP | 5,713 | 16.74 | 19.83 | 7,788.60 | 26.6% | 9.7% | 16.9% |
| CSQ | 6,856 | 8.65 | 11.41 | 12,021.29 | 52.2% | 49.8% | 2.3% |
| FGL | 4,000 | 20.69 | 20.69 | 195.00 | 0.3% | 1.9% | -1.6% |
| FSC | 6,764 | 9.65 | 9.27 | 1,112.06 | -2.2% | 0.9% | -3.1% |
| 700 | 67.21 | 63.11 | - | -6.1% | -0.3% | -5.8% | |
| NTC | 6,691 | 12.01 | 12.58 | 1,135.35 | 6.2% | 1.3% | 4.9% |
| O | 593 | 20.73 | 43.78 | 9,133.01 | 185.5% | 108.7% | 76.8% |
| 4,125 | 5.00 | 6.17 | 8,067.44 | 62.6% | 116.2% | -53.6% | |
| PM | 1,000 | 78.60 | 86.40 | 940.00 | 11.1% | 0.6% | 10.5% |
| TGONF | 7,000 | 10.27 | 10.09 | 2,367.50 | 1.5% | 14.1% | -12.6% |
| TPVG | 5,029 | 15.55 | 15.15 | 450.00 | -2.0% | -1.2% | -0.8% |
| Total Open | 51,742 | 14.7% | 13.3% | 1.4% | |||
| Closed | 12.4% | 11.0% | 1.3% | ||||
| Combined | 12.7% | 11.4% | 1.3% | ||||
| Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 | 17.0% | ||||||
| 2014 Gain | 1.5% | ||||||
So while I was up 11% earlier this year, I am still up 4%. This is not a train wreck. It is time (in my opinion) to continue to move away from the speculative plays. And then continue watching the bear flags I set up 2 years ago. If the final two start to be in jeopardy, that is the time to move towards more cash (up to 40%). But not time to panic.
I will try to post more tomorrow.
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