Saturday, May 31, 2014

Weekend Update - End of May

Weekend Update - May 31st, 2014

Another week, another month in the books. Does anyone else get tired of magazine articles and CNBC discussions about "Sell in May and Go Away?"  I rank that slogan just behind the January effect.

May was a decent month.  I pretty much kept pace with the indices, which was not a bad thing.  I was up 1.5% overall.  My MFI stocks were up 2.8%.  The MFI Index was up 1.1%. Finally, the benchmark R3K was up 2.1%.  I am now up 8.4% on the year (my MFI is up 6.4%).

Here is a table showing the MFI Index for the month:

Index Stock Start Last Month Current YTD Change Monthly Change Shares
1   ATVI      17.83         20.01         20.98 17.7% 4.8%         13.07
2   MO      38.39         40.59         42.04 9.5% 3.6%           6.07
3   APOL      27.32         28.86         26.80 -1.9% -7.1%           8.53
4   AAPL    561.02      593.14       639.34 14.0% 7.8%           0.42
5   AGX      27.56         26.77         30.65 11.2% 14.5%           8.46
6   BAH      19.15         23.34         22.23 16.1% -4.8%         12.17
7   BKE      52.56         47.43         45.29 -13.8% -4.5%           4.44
8   CA      33.65         30.39         29.19 -13.3% -3.9%           6.93
9   CACI      73.22         69.65         71.40 -2.5% 2.5%           3.18
10   CHE      76.62         83.47         88.48 15.5% 6.0%           3.04
11   CRUS      20.43         22.30         22.13 8.3% -0.8%         11.41
12   CSCO      22.43         23.47         24.98 11.4% 6.4%         10.39
13   COH      56.13         44.99         41.05 -26.9% -8.8%           4.15
14   CRTX         9.49           9.50            9.50 0.1% 0.0%         24.56
15   DLX      52.19         55.20         56.64 8.5% 2.6%           4.47
16   DHX         7.25           7.65            7.06 -2.6% -7.7%         32.15
17   EBIX      14.71         15.86         15.72 6.8% -0.9%         15.85
18   EGL      33.40         43.64         38.65 15.7% -11.4%           6.98
19   GME      49.26         40.01         38.18 -22.5% -4.6%           4.73
20   GTIV      12.41           7.53         13.63 9.8% 81.0%         18.78
21   GNI      68.10         19.56         19.72 -71.0% 0.8%           3.42
22   HLF      78.70         60.28         65.13 -17.2% 8.0%           2.96
23   IQNT      11.41         13.72         15.06 31.9% 9.8%         20.43
24   ESI      33.58         27.00         17.22 -48.7% -36.2%           6.94
25   LPS      37.38         37.30         37.30 -0.2% 0.0%           6.24
26   LQDT      22.66         17.25         15.38 -32.1% -10.8%         10.29
27   LO      50.68         60.04         62.79 23.9% 4.6%           4.60
28   MSFT      37.41         40.68         41.50 10.9% 2.0%           6.23
29   MYGN      20.98         42.21         33.16 58.1% -21.4%         11.11
30   NATR      17.32         13.46         14.93 -13.8% 10.9%         13.46
31   NOC    114.61      122.12       122.16 6.6% 0.0%           2.03
32   PDLI         8.44           8.49            9.37 11.0% 0.0%         27.62
33   PFMT      10.30           8.71            9.49 -7.9% 9.0%         22.63
34   PETS      16.63         13.26         13.64 -18.0% 2.9%         14.02
35   PRSC      25.72         40.61         40.20 56.3% -1.0%           9.06
36   QCOR      54.45         82.48         90.43 66.1% 9.6%           4.28
37   RTN      90.70         96.09         98.18 8.2% 2.2%           2.57
38   RAI      49.99         57.10         60.30 20.6% 5.6%           4.66
39   RPXC      16.90         16.38         16.25 -3.8% -0.8%         13.79
40   SAIC      33.07         39.56         39.85 20.5% 0.7%           7.05
41   SWHC      13.49         15.35         15.88 17.7% 3.5%         17.28
42   STRA      34.47         42.63         54.64 58.5% 28.2%           6.76
43   RGR      73.09         64.89         61.65 -15.7% -5.0%           3.19
44   UIS      33.57         24.37         23.47 -30.1% -3.7%           6.94
45   UNTD      13.76         11.85         10.92 -20.6% -7.8%         16.94
46   USMO      14.28         17.26         15.67 9.7% -9.2%         16.32
47   USNA      75.58         67.86         71.91 -4.9% 6.0%           3.08
48   VCI      34.25         34.02         34.02 -0.7% 0.0%           6.81
49   VGR      16.37         21.70         21.31 30.2% -1.8%         14.24
50   WTW      32.93         19.80         20.83 -36.7% 5.2%           7.08
Total    17,682      18,077       18,283 3.4% 1.1%

You can see GTIV was up about 80%; while ESI was down 36%. MFI stocks are often not for the faint of heart.

My MFI Portfolio

Well, for the first time in a while, I have a tranche (May 2014) trailing the benchmark. That can happen and as I have documented recently, MFI in aggregate is starting to trail the benchmarks, which is certainly a headwind for my tranches.

8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $243.31 $3.00 31.5% 17.1%
FLR $66.06 $75.08 $0.53 14.5% 17.1%
AGX $15.60 $30.65 $0.75 101.3% 17.1%
KLIC $11.29 $14.09 $0.00 24.8% 17.1%
RPXC $15.92 $16.25 $0.00 2.1% 17.1%
Totals 34.8% 17.1%
11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $19.36 $0.00 12.4% 7.7%
ATVI $17.71 $20.78 $0.20 18.5% 7.7%
GA $9.04 $11.76 $0.23 32.7% 7.7%
RPXC $17.04 $16.25 $0.00 -4.6% 7.7%
SYNA $48.01 $68.08 $0.00 41.8% 7.7%
Totals 20.1% 7.7%
2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $20.78 $0.20 22.5% 7.7%
KLAC $61.47 $65.52 $0.90 8.1% 7.7%
RPXC $16.22 $16.25 $0.00 0.2% 7.7%
SNDK $69.55 $96.63 $0.23 39.3% 7.7%
WNR $39.11 $41.02 $0.52 6.2% 7.7%
Totals 15.2% 7.7%
5/6/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $19.57 $19.36 $0.00 -1.1% 2.4%
CA $29.54 $28.69 $0.25 -2.0% 2.4%
CSCO $22.79 $24.62 $0.00 8.1% 2.4%
NSR $25.82 $28.02 $0.00 8.5% 2.4%
RCII $28.78 $27.96 $0.00 -2.8% 2.4%
Totals 2.1% 2.4%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 34.8% 20.1% 15.2% 2.1% 18.6%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 40.7%
MFI Overall Gain 53.8% 72.7% 105.4% 35.8% 66.9%
Current Balance      38,446       43,176     51,353      33,961    166,936
R3K Current Tranche 17.1% 47.2% 7.7% 2.4% 18.6%
R3K Overall Gain 43.1% 47.2% 30.4% 21.8% 34.9%
R3K Balance      35,768       36,788     32,609      29,722    134,886
Annualized IRR 27.2% 42.6% 72.1% 33.2% 49.8%

There is no reason to get excited, my goal/hope is to avoid and real disaster stocks (like ESI or WTW) as that can really put the pressure on the other 4 stocks in a tranche. Eyeballing my MFI stocks, the only one that really made news this week, was SYNA looking to buy the Japanese semi company (Why Synaptics, Incorporated Shares Soared Today), which for some reason caused a huge pop.  Then I was pleased to see where AGX in my August tranche has become a double. Clearly I should have added a second position in November.

Discretionary Portfolio

Here is a table showing how all my stocks fared during the week:

Index Stock 5/9/2014 Current Weekly Change Share
1 GTAT         15.95         16.86 5.7% 9.8%
2 GNW         17.28         16.99 -1.7% 8.3%
3 KLIC         14.21         14.09 -0.8% 5.6%
4 AOD           8.62            8.78 1.9% 5.3%
5 BBEP         20.84         21.44 2.9% 5.2%
6 RPXC         16.49         16.25 -1.5% 4.1%
7 PM         86.57         88.54 2.3% 3.8%
8 NTC         12.64         12.68 0.3% 3.7%
9 ATVI         20.68         20.78 0.5% 3.6%
10 GPS         41.14         41.23 0.2% 3.5%
11 CSQ         11.68         11.83 1.3% 3.5%
12 FSC           9.33            9.29 -0.4% 3.4%
13 TPVG         15.49         15.62 0.8% 3.3%
14 TGONF           9.90            9.70 -2.0% 3.0%
15 AVG         19.95         19.36 -3.0% 2.9%
16 RIOM           1.81            1.70 -6.4% 2.6%
17 BAC-WTA           6.81            7.02 3.1% 2.5%
18 SNDK         94.27         96.63 2.5% 2.4%
19 NADL           9.58         10.49 9.6% 2.1%
20 AGX         29.96         30.65 2.3% 1.9%
21 HIG-WT         25.99         26.01 0.1% 1.9%
22 KLAC         64.18         65.52 2.1% 1.8%
23 GA         11.79         11.76 -0.3% 1.8%
24 WNR         39.71         41.02 3.3% 1.7%
25 SYNA         59.25         68.08 14.9% 1.7%
26 NSR         28.93         28.02 -3.1% 1.4%
27 CSCO         24.52         24.62 0.4% 1.4%
28 CF      246.66       243.31 -1.4% 1.3%
29 CA         29.19         28.69 -1.7% 1.3%
30 RCII         28.49         27.96 -1.9% 1.3%
31 FLR         74.11         75.08 1.3% 1.1%
32 O         42.93         43.30 0.0% 1.1%
33 OIBAX           6.16            6.18 0.3% 1.1%
34 EDV      104.12       105.91 1.7% 0.6%

As you can see, of my discretionary picks, GTAT had a good week as it becomes more and more apparent to people that their products will be used big time with AAPL (With Sapphire In The iPhone Almost Confirmed, GT Advanced Technologies Looks Like A Buy).  RIOM continues to lag, but I added shares this week at 1.65.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BAC-WTA         8,000         5.73                 7.02 22.5% 15.9% 6.6%
EDV             139    101.20            105.91 4.7% 5.0% -0.3%
GNW       11,000         9.16               16.99 85.6% 27.9% 57.6%
GTAT       14,000         8.64               16.86 95.2% 8.0% 87.2%
HIG-WT         1,650       21.24               26.01 22.5% 17.1% 5.4%
KLIC         7,000       11.48               14.09 22.8% 12.6% 10.2%
RIOM       35,000         2.08                 1.70 -18.5% 2.5% -21.0%
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
Total Open 47.9% 13.6% 34.3%
Closed 3.0% 1.4% 1.6%
Combined 8.2% 2.8% 5.4%

Clearly the -18% for RIOM is a drag.

Dividend Portfolio

These guys are starting to show signs of life. Now up 4.6% on the year.  Recent adds GPS and NADL are (ahem) paying dividends.  And the overall yield of this portfolio is now 7.0%.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD        14,005         8.02             8.78              9,323.45 17.7% 19.0% -1.2%
BBEP          5,713       16.74           21.44              7,788.60 36.2% 12.5% 23.8%
CSQ          6,905         8.67           11.83            12,579.25 57.4% 53.1% 4.3%
FSC          8,264         9.57             9.29              1,675.47 -0.8% 3.1% -3.9%
GPS          2,000       40.55           41.23                           -   1.7% 2.0% -0.3%
NADL          5,000         9.59           10.49                           -   9.4% 0.6% 8.8%
NTC          6,691       12.01           12.68              1,516.77 7.5% 3.8% 3.7%
O              595       20.83           43.30              9,241.39 182.4% 112.9% 69.5%
OIBAX          4,125         5.00             6.18              8,067.44 62.8% 121.6% -58.8%
PM          1,000       78.60           88.54                  940.00 13.8% 3.2% 10.7%
TGONF          7,000       10.27             9.70              2,367.50 -2.3% 17.0% -19.3%
TPVG          5,029       15.55           15.62              1,958.70 3.0% 1.3% 1.7%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open                  55,459 18.0% 15.5% 2.5%
Closed 11.9% 10.8% 1.1%
Combined 12.9% 11.6% 1.3%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 17.7%
2014 Gain 4.6%

2014 Buys - Paint It Black

2014 thus far has not exactly been golden for me in stock picking.  The big disaster for me was LMNS, which lost (with multiplier) 65,000.  That being said,  the aggregate of all my picks in 2014 has actually crawled back to black (I am assuredly jinxing it by saying that).  Here is a list of all my buys:

Date Stock O/C Purchase Current $ Gain % Gain
1/13 KLIC Op 12.01 14.13 4,240 17.7%
1/13 SIRI Cl 3.73 3.37 -5,352 -9.6%
1/14 TC Cl 2.56 2.58 200 0.8%
1/16 C Cl 52.67 47.24 -5,425 -10.3%
1/17 RIOM Op 2.26 1.67 -8,850 -26.1%
1/21 FGL Cl 19.75 19.80 200 0.3%
1/21 NTC Op 12.00 12.69 6,053 7.6%
1/24 C Cl 49.22 47.24 -990 -4.0%
1/27 TWM Cl 50.45 50.72 1,100 0.5%
1/31 ATVI Op 17.16 20.75 8,833 22.1%
1/31 KLAC Op 61.35 65.57 3,336 8.3%
1/31 MBUU Cl 17.50 19.18 6,720 9.6%
1/31 RPXC Op 16.13 16.25 289 0.7%
1/31 SNDK Op 70.20 96.46 15,070 37.7%
1/31 WNR Op 39.80 41.19 1,915 4.8%
2/10 IEV Cl 46.28 48.08 567 3.9%
2/10 MUSA Cl 39.00 39.04 60 0.1%
2/12 AGII Cl 43.53 44.00 705 1.1%
2/13 FGL Cl 20.08 20.64 1,250 3.1%
2/14 MUSA Cl 39.25 39.04 -105 -0.5%
2/18 FSC Op 9.64 9.29 -446 -1.0%
2/24 AOD Op 8.33 8.77 1,986 7.9%
2/24 FGL Cl 20.01 20.64 695 3.5%
2/24 KLIC Op 11.52 14.13 3,915 22.7%
2/24 PM Op 78.60 88.61 10,953 13.9%
2/26 CS Cl 30.78 32.19 1,413 4.6%
2/26 FSC Op 9.68 9.29 -272 -1.4%
2/27 BBEP Op 19.47 21.46 2,485 12.8%
2/27 LMNS Cl 12.94 8.86 -32,900 -31.5%
3/4 RIOM Op 2.24 1.67 -5,700 -25.4%
3/6 PXLW Cl 7.39 7.63 2,377 3.2%
3/7 LMNS Cl 12.49 9.36 -25,040 -25.1%
3/7 PXLW Cl 8.90 6.92 -9,920 -22.3%
3/7 TPVG Op 15.55 15.72 2,800 3.6%
3/10 IWM Cl 119.28 114.07 -656 -4.4%
3/13 CALL Cl 21.20 22.43 2,460 5.8%
3/17 GTAT Cl 17.05 17.54 3,465 2.9%
3/19 LMNS Cl 12.02 10.45 -6,256 -13.0%
3/19 CTCM Cl 9.13 9.53 2,033 4.5%
3/21 CALL Cl 24.13 20.33 -7,600 -15.7%
3/21 CTCM Cl 8.84 9.53 3,467 7.8%
3/28 CALL Cl 20.27 20.11 -320 -0.8%
3/28 GTAT Op 14.82 16.88 6,179 13.9%
4/3 GNW Op 18.39 16.99 -2,800 -7.6%
4/3 TWOU Cl 13.92 13.71 -585 -1.5%
4/7 GTAT Op 16.46 16.88 1,274 2.6%
4/7 SPY Cl 185.98 182.86 -246 -1.7%
4/9 TWOU Cl 12.99 13.71 483 5.5%
4/9 KANG Cl 15.88 15.96 930 0.5%
4/9 GSOL Cl 8.58 8.85 1,100 3.2%
4/10 TZA Cl 17.00 17.38 1,140 2.2%
4/11 FGL Cl 22.57 20.64 -1,930 -8.6%
4/15 GTAT Cl 15.10 15.78 2,720 4.5%
4/15 TZA Cl 17.81 18.41 2,400 3.4%
4/14 EDV Op 101.20 105.98 664 4.7%
4/16 TZA Cl 17.34 17.30 -160 -0.2%
4/21 RIOM Op 1.87 1.67 -1,966 -10.5%
4/21 TZA Cl 16.92 16.07 -3,428 -5.1%
4/22 FGL Cl 21.96 21.40 -560 -2.6%
4/24 KLAC Cl 67.21 64.19 -2,114 -4.5%
4/28 FGL Cl 20.36 21.58 1,793 6.0%
4/28 GNW Cl 16.76 18.00 2,230 7.4%
4/28 LMNS Cl 8.32 8.56 921 2.8%
4/28 WB Cl 17.55 17.89 1,020 1.9%
4/29 AHL Cl 45.47 45.91 660 1.0%
5/2 HIMX Cl 8.84 7.16 -5,028 -19.0%
5/6 AVG Op 19.57 19.40 -266 -0.9%
5/6 CA Op 29.54 28.72 -581 -1.9%
5/6 CSCO Op 22.79 24.69 2,499 8.3%
5/6 NSR Op 25.82 28.02 2,557 8.5%
5/6 RCII Op 28.78 28.03 -785 -2.6%
5/7 AVG Cl 18.29 19.65 2,710 7.4%
5/9 DTV Cl 87.11 87.21 75 0.1%
5/12 GTAT Cl 13.01 14.10 3,270 8.4%
5/13 FSC Op 9.20 9.29 134 1.0%
5/15 KERX Cl 12.55 13.14 1,770 4.7%
5/20 AMZN Cl 303.05 304.22 176 0.4%
5/21 BAC-WTA Op 6.88 7.07 376 2.7%
5/21 GPS Op 40.55 41.24 1,380 1.7%
5/28 RIOM Op 1.65 1.67 228 1.4%
5/28 NADL Op 9.59 10.45 4,325 9.0%
Grand Total 29.74 1,317

As you can see, some bad picks (thus far), with LMNS, RIOM, HIMX, SIRI, C and CALL probably leading the list.  On the flip side, SNDK, PM, cumulative GTAT and the recent NADL have certainly born some fruit.

More later this weekend!  I will unveil new Monthly tracking portfolio.

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