One fun thing I can do with blogger is see all kinds of neat stats about my blogs (all 1,764 of them). I can also see which blogs are read the most. One of the most read posts was Had Enough, #5 on the all time list. This was my post on September 4th, 2011 when I stated that I was going to stop using the MFI approach. Of course, that lasted about a year and then I had what has so far been a successful re-boot.
On that day, I did publish a top 200 list. I thought it would be fun (and potentially ironic) to see how the top 50 in that top 200 has fared since I had enough:
| Ticker | Rank | Stock Price | Market Cap | Yahoo Yield | Current | Change |
| STV | 1 | 4.74 | 280 | 0.0% | 2.75 | -42% |
| 2 | 2.04 | 125 | 0.0% | 8.49 | 316% | |
| 3 | 2.85 | 83 | 0.0% | 3.44 | 21% | |
| 4 | 5.84 | 59 | 21.4% | 9.99 | 71% | |
| DEPO | 5 | 5.88 | 318 | 0.0% | 10.57 | 80% |
| TNAV | 6 | 8.80 | 401 | 0.0% | 5.70 | -35% |
| 7 | 5.80 | 1,079 | 13.6% | 10.09 | 74% | |
| AGX | 8 | 9.60 | 131 | 0.0% | 30.32 | 216% |
| TSRA | 9 | 13.27 | 683 | 0.0% | 21.64 | 63% |
| XNY | 10 | 2.27 | 132 | 0.0% | 1.01 | -56% |
| 11 | 33.00 | 1,419 | 0.0% | 32.68 | -1% | |
| 12 | 2.37 | 63 | 0.0% | 4.83 | 104% | |
| BPI | 13 | 20.40 | 1,182 | 0.0% | 15.92 | -22% |
| 14 | 6.38 | 173 | 0.0% | 10.38 | 63% | |
| 15 | 67.27 | 1,865 | 0.0% | 24.90 | -63% | |
| 16 | 5.34 | 187 | 0.0% | 26.08 | 388% | |
| MNTA | 17 | 16.13 | 823 | 0.0% | 10.69 | -34% |
| GAME | 18 | 5.40 | 1,537 | 0.0% | 6.69 | 24% |
| CPLA | 19 | 30.42 | 477 | 0.0% | 57.51 | 89% |
| 20 | 44.55 | 6,252 | 0.0% | 28.61 | -36% | |
| SNDK | 21 | 34.94 | 8,521 | 0.0% | 89.74 | 157% |
| PRX | 22 | 28.50 | 1,046 | 0.0% | 50.00 | 75% |
| AFAM | 23 | 18.18 | 170 | 0.0% | 22.59 | 24% |
| RIMG | 24 | 12.93 | 124 | 2.3% | 14.01 | 8% |
| SAVE | 25 | 11.74 | 843 | 0.0% | 55.48 | 373% |
| DELL | 26 | 14.24 | 26,643 | 0.0% | 13.86 | -3% |
| 27 | 16.30 | 703 | 0.0% | 22.72 | 39% | |
| LTXC | 28 | 5.53 | 279 | 0.0% | 9.08 | 64% |
| 29 | 33.10 | 9,479 | 0.0% | 89.50 | 170% | |
| 30 | 68.85 | 95 | 0.0% | 164.97 | 140% | |
| CNGL | 31 | 1.74 | 64 | 0.0% | 0.00 | -100% |
| 32 | 7.98 | 592 | 0.0% | 14.15 | 77% | |
| 33 | 18.61 | 1,665 | 0.0% | 49.96 | 168% | |
| 34 | 10.05 | 99 | 0.0% | 8.83 | -12% | |
| USMO | 35 | 14.73 | 332 | 13.3% | 16.80 | 14% |
| UEPS | 36 | 6.15 | 278 | 0.0% | 10.09 | 64% |
| 37 | 12.99 | 111 | 7.5% | 14.89 | 15% | |
| LPS | 38 | 16.35 | 1,403 | 2.3% | 34.00 | 108% |
| 39 | 13.41 | 4,097 | 4.0% | 30.15 | 125% | |
| 40 | 15.36 | 1,160 | 0.0% | 4.66 | -70% | |
| EGY | 41 | 5.81 | 337 | 0.0% | 7.26 | 25% |
| 42 | 30.12 | 15,799 | 0.0% | 7.29 | -76% | |
| PWER | 43 | 6.88 | 965 | 0.0% | 4.46 | -35% |
| ACAD | 44 | 1.30 | 68 | 0.0% | 18.52 | 1325% |
| AMAT | 45 | 10.84 | 14,417 | 2.7% | 20.21 | 86% |
| KLAC | 46 | 34.82 | 5,950 | 3.1% | 67.11 | 93% |
| AVEO | 47 | 15.91 | 586 | 0.0% | 1.18 | -93% |
| STRA | 48 | 90.11 | 1,058 | 4.4% | 53.70 | -40% |
| AMED | 49 | 15.37 | 446 | 0.0% | 13.35 | -13% |
| USNA | 50 | 25.22 | 397 | 0.0% | 69.55 | 176% |
The average stock is up 82%. The Russell 3000 is up a bit shy of 70% in that same stretch. Not a stomp, but a win nonetheless.
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6 comments:
Hi Marsh. First, I hope you recover quickly from your knee surgery.
Second, since I am considering following the MFI approach to investment, I read your blog entries going back to 2006, when you first started writing, to gage how successful one can be using the MFI investment approach.
I truely commend your perserverance, especially in years 2007-2008.
Yet, despite all the work you have put in, you have essentially match the Russell Index from 2006 through 2013. Although I have not yet found Joel Greenblatt's calcualtions for this time period (because they are not published, I am sure he will show that his formula would have trounced this index during the time frame. How exactly is he coming up with those returns? No one can duplicate them in back test. Those that have done back tests, using his formula, point to returns that are not that different from what you have experienced. This make me wonder if JG is only choosing the stocks that have done well, minimizing the poor performers. For what? To sell books? To attract investors? I just don't know.
Given the above and your experience, I am now quite skeptical of the MFI returns claimed by JG. Therefore, given your seven years of effort, would you still embark down the MFI road or simply continue investing in an index fund, if you were to start today? And if you were going to start today, how exactly would choose your stocks? Are you adding any variations to that use by JG?
Great blogg and many thanks for documenting all you have done.
John, thanks for your comment. You are correct, my work in total shows that MFI has essentially tracked the R3K since 2006. I started the re-boot in August 2012, because I felt I had determined ways to get the better stocks. The keys (for me) have been to avoid the real value traps (companies with limited product set or customer base) and to focus on larger companies (preferably with a dividend).
I sincerely doubt JG tries to fudge the numbers to make him look better to sell books or attract investors. He is very wealthy and I believe he does what he does to help the little guy.
I suspect most of the stats he produces showing it has worked since the book came out, exclude foreign stocks (thus eliminating the chinese reverse merger scam) and uses just larger cap stocks ( as I show that universe has out performed by 6 points per year.
Going down this route is a personal decision. I do not believe it will ever lead to the riches he described in the book, I think 3 or 4 points a year above benchmark is the best you can hope for. It can be frustrating and does require discipline.
I would still go this road. My variation is really that I calculate my own top 200 (not using the official website). That does bring up a few stocks that are not on the official list. Some of those have been very successful for me (GA and RDA for instance). RCII is my most recent selection from my internal work.
Good luck.
Marsh,
One thing I forgot to say is that the fact you actually match the Index is infact quite an accomplishment and not to be taken lightly.
would you mind sharing how you construct your top 200 stocks or what screen you are using along with the selection criteria used to select your stocks? I am guessing you are choosing the top 25 from your list of 200?
I will continue to track your progress and hopefully jump in. Presently, I am invested accross 8Index funds (U.S. Value, U.S Large, US mall, US small Value, International large cap, international value, Reits, bonds) with a slant towards the value sector.
If I were to dive into an MFI like approach, I would most like experiment with a small portion of my funds.
John - I devote a blog at least once a month to my top 200 list and how I calculate it. There is a post on April 26th with most recent list.
Marsh,
Would you give or sell a spread sheet that produced The top 200.
I only have Open Office as I don't do a lot of excel these days.
Another idea is there anyone that comes close to your work?
I found Old School Vaue but it does not match your work. But it looks maybe OK/
I looking out a number of years and hope my family will be able to download MFI.
Joel, will not continue for ever IMO as he has been discredited by anyone that has tried to match him! Your Blog is proof that no one believes him.
Any help would be a treasure cove!
AAII has a Joel download but I can't find my password.
Also can you make it a little less of a problem to make a comment. In my old age I just do not see this stuff!
I have posted my top 200 spreadsheet with instructions in the files section of yahoo groups mfi investing.
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