Every weekend I read Barron's and other news sources, looking for a few good stock ideas. I have to say that most of the recommended ideas are pretty uninspiring. I am not going to say that the market cannot go higher, but I will agree with some of the recent experts in asserting it is getting pretty fully valued.
Where have all the flowers gone, long time passing?
Where have all the flowers gone, long time ago?
Where have all the flowers gone?
Young girls have picked them everyone.
Oh, when will they ever learn?
Oh, when will they ever learn?
I am a little bit paralyzed on what to do. I suppose I will be staying the course until my bear signals
One of my sources is Decision Moose, which ranks various options for money. Here is a table showing where the Moose is currently:
| RANK | CI | ASSET | Technical Trend | TS |
| 1 | 81 | US Small-cap Equity Index (IWM) | very bullish | +96 |
| 2 | 74 | Europe 350 Equity Index (IEV) | very bullish | +95 |
| 3 | 71 | US Large-cap Equity Index (SPY) | very bullish | +82 |
| 4 | 70 | Gold Bullion (GLD) | bullish | +66 |
| 5 | 56 | Long Zero-Coupon Treasury Bonds (EDV) | neutral | +13 |
| 6 | — | Cash-- MMF or three-month T-bills | — | — |
| 7 | 33 | Japan Equity Index (EWJ) | slightly bearish | -37 |
| 8 | 32 | Asia-Pacific ex-Japan Equity Index (AXJL) | neutral | +9 |
| 9 | 19 | Latin American stocks (ILF) | very bearish | -84 |
Then I have my own flags, that are just looking at the 50 day moving average against the 200 day moving average for several indexes:
| 50 Day EMA | 200 Day EMA | Difference |
| MDY 50 EMA | MDY 200 EMA | Difference |
| 115.82 | 111.69 | 3.7% |
| SPY 50 EMA | SPY 200 EMA | Difference |
| 183.91 | 178.00 | 3.3% |
| IWV 50 EMA | IWV 200 EMA | Difference |
| 110.82 | 107.13 | 3.4% |
As the differences approach 0, I would get more bearish. I am more interested in the broader indexes as I think that smaller cap stocks will fall first.
Raising Cash
A problem I am encountering is how I would go about raising cash if I think markets are poised for a fall. Think about my stocks:
- MFI - these stocks right now make up 26% of my total investments + cash. In my mind, they are basically "off-limits". But the last couple of tranches, when they expired I added a littel extra $ to the kitty for the new portfolio. I will likely not do that in May.
- Dividend Stocks - this is another 25%. Now they are not total "hands-off". Looking at my names, FGL is the most (in my view) discretionary of my holdings. It pays a relatively small dividend. So if it ran up a bit (say to $25) it could be a candidate to sell. I think for the rest, my preference would be to sell on the margin - not entire position. OIBAX and O would be the smartest ones to sell, though I worry they will cause a bit of a tax nightmare. Those three securities are about 12% of my dividend portfolio.
- Discretionary Portfolio - this one is too high at 32%, so I do need to pare it a bit. GNW and GTAT are two large holdings (and successful). I still like them a lot, so am hesitant to sell. LMNS is the obvious one to sell, but I am expecting at least a mini-pop of a $1 when analyst opinions come out. Sometimes I think about selling either C or CS, wondering whether I really want two large banks. RIOM frustrates me, but I do think one mining stock makes sense. KLIC could be pared back, but I think there are catalysts that could bump them 40 to 50%, so my preference is to wait for the catalysts. I am committed to my warrants in BAC and HIG. CALL is a new holding that may shift to MFI in May. Selling the LMNS would get me closer to 25%. That is probably the answer.
| Stock | Avg Cost | Current Price | Dividends | Gain per Share | Pct Gain | Pct of Portfolio |
| GTAT | 3.39 | 18.61 | - | 15.22 | 449.0% | 9.7% |
| LMNS | 12.57 | 11.90 | - | (0.67) | -5.4% | 8.8% |
| GNW | 7.10 | 18.00 | - | 10.90 | 153.4% | 6.0% |
| 11.43 | 12.67 | - | 1.24 | 10.9% | 5.1% | |
| AOD | 8.02 | 8.27 | 0.50 | 0.76 | 9.4% | 4.2% |
| BBEP | 16.74 | 19.94 | 1.03 | 4.24 | 25.3% | 4.2% |
| RPXC | 16.36 | 16.11 | - | (0.25) | -1.5% | 3.4% |
| CS | 29.47 | 30.94 | - | 1.47 | 5.0% | 3.2% |
| CTCM | 8.98 | 8.58 | - | (0.40) | -4.5% | 3.2% |
| 17.39 | 20.78 | - | 3.39 | 19.5% | 3.1% | |
| TPVG | 15.55 | 16.40 | - | 0.85 | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| PM | 78.60 | 81.00 | - | 2.40 | 3.1% | 3.0% |
| NTC | 12.00 | 12.03 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1.2% | 3.0% |
| CSQ | 8.63 | 11.06 | 1.69 | 4.12 | 47.7% | 2.8% |
| C | 51.52 | 50.08 | - | (1.44) | -2.8% | 2.8% |
| TGONF | 10.27 | 10.33 | 0.34 | 0.40 | 3.8% | 2.7% |
| FGL | 20.06 | 21.84 | 0.07 | 1.85 | 9.2% | 2.4% |
| FSC | 9.65 | 9.44 | 0.08 | (0.13) | -1.3% | 2.3% |
| CF | 185.70 | 254.00 | 2.38 | 70.68 | 38.1% | 2.2% |
| BAC-WTA | 5.35 | 8.42 | - | 3.07 | 57.4% | 1.9% |
| RIOM | 2.25 | 1.92 | - | (0.33) | -14.7% | 1.8% |
| CALL | 24.13 | 22.84 | - | (1.29) | -5.3% | 1.7% |
| 61.35 | 70.02 | 0.45 | 9.12 | 14.9% | 1.7% | |
| 70.20 | 80.10 | - | 9.90 | 14.1% | 1.7% | |
| HIG-WT | 21.24 | 26.83 | - | 5.59 | 26.3% | 1.6% |
| AGX | 15.60 | 29.60 | 0.75 | 14.75 | 94.6% | 1.6% |
| WNR | 39.80 | 40.90 | 0.26 | 1.35 | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| GA | 8.96 | 11.61 | 0.23 | 2.88 | 32.1% | 1.5% |
| SYNA | 48.01 | 60.49 | - | 12.48 | 26.0% | 1.4% |
| RDA | 9.74 | 17.72 | 0.10 | 8.09 | 83.1% | 1.4% |
| AVG | 17.22 | 20.39 | - | 3.17 | 18.4% | 1.3% |
| NVDA | 13.85 | 18.54 | 0.32 | 5.01 | 36.2% | 1.0% |
| FLR | 66.06 | 76.62 | 0.53 | 11.09 | 16.8% | 1.0% |
| OIBAX | 4.99 | 6.05 | 1.93 | 2.99 | 59.8% | 0.9% |
| O | 20.64 | 41.10 | 15.10 | 35.56 | 172.3% | 0.9% |
| CYOU | 29.24 | 28.93 | - | (0.31) | -1.1% | 0.7% |
| IWM | 119.28 | 118.61 | - | (0.67) | -0.6% | 0.6% |
| TC-PT | 16.60 | 13.30 | 0.81 | (2.49) | -15.0% | 0.5% |
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1 comment:
Marshall on the Decision Moose chart, it shows Latin American stocks as very bearish. On this chart would that indicate an actual buy signal? I have begun slowly buying the ILF and AND etf because they are down so significantely over the last year.
The negative attitude about that area is what is making it attractive looking to me.
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