Weekend Update - Tired of Being Alone

Weekend Update - All By Myself

The fam left on Thursday to go visit Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.  They will return late this afternoon.  So I have brewed some coffee, the sun is pouring into the kitchen (though it is a bit chill outside) and I have cranked up Al Green
 on the stereo.  I have a little Wes Montgomery lined up next. Then I have stayed up late last two nights watching my brackets get ruined.  Looks like the billion dollars are safe.

Past Week Overview

Last week felt like a bad week.  Some of my transactions did not pan out immediately (not that they should).  Friday was a solid under performance; but overall I was up a very sweet 2.1%.  The broader market was up 1.1%.  For the year, I am really starting to zoom ahead of the benchmarks.  I am up 9.4% versus 1.8% for R3K.  Here are all my holdings and how they did this past week:

Index	Stock	3/14/2014	Current	Weekly          Change	Share
1	GTAT	16.81	18.61	10.7%	10.1%
2	LMNS	11.72	11.90	1.5%	9.1%
3	GNW	16.62	18.00	8.3%	5.9%
4	KLIC	12.33	12.67	2.8%	5.0%
5	AOD	8.29	8.27	-0.2%	4.4%
6	BBEP	20.16	19.94	-1.1%	4.3%
7	RPXC	15.93	16.11	1.1%	3.4%
8	CS	30.25	30.94	2.3%	3.3%
9	ATVI	21.00	20.78	-1.0%	3.2%
10	PM	79.89	81.00	1.4%	3.1%
11	TPVG	16.20	16.40	1.2%	3.1%
12	NTC	12.14	12.03	-0.9%	3.0%
13	CSQ	10.96	11.06	0.9%	2.8%
14	TGONF	10.50	10.33	-1.6%	2.8%
15	C	46.88	50.08	6.8%	2.8%
16	FGL	23.53	21.84	-7.2%	2.5%
17	FSC	9.40	9.44	0.4%	2.4%
18	CF	252.32	254.00	0.7%	2.2%
19	TC-PT	13.35	13.30	-0.4%	2.0%
20	BAC-WTA	7.99	8.42	5.4%	1.9%
21	RIOM	2.36	1.92	-18.6%	1.9%
22	CTCM	9.13	8.58	-6.0%	1.7%
23	KLAC	66.88	70.02	4.7%	1.7%
24	SNDK	73.28	80.10	9.3%	1.7%
25	HIG-WT	26.63	26.83	0.8%	1.6%
26	AGX	28.28	29.60	4.7%	1.6%
27	WNR	40.66	40.90	0.6%	1.6%
28	GA	11.40	11.61	1.8%	1.5%
29	SYNA	61.41	60.49	-1.5%	1.4%
30	RDA	17.94	17.72	-1.2%	1.4%
31	AVG	20.58	20.39	-0.9%	1.4%
32	NVDA	17.82	18.54	0.0%	1.0%
33	FLR	74.33	76.62	3.1%	1.0%
34	OIBAX	6.07	6.05	-0.3%	0.9%
35	O	42.32	41.10	-2.9%	0.9%
36	CYOU	27.83	28.93	4.0%	0.7%
37	IWM	117.54	118.61	0.9%	0.6%

Obviously helps to have largest holding up 10%. GNW had a great week as well.

MFI Portfolio

Really continues to do well.  A smarter person would put more chips in this pile.  I have certainly ramped it up, but it is about same size as my other portfolios.  What has been great about MFI is that all my tranches are leading the benchmark and by considerable margins.  Not sure if that is luck or skill, but I will take it.  Only about 6 weeks left on May 6th tranche, I hope I can keep winning streak alive.

SNDK and KLAC really picked up the pace in the February tranche this week.  I think SNDK really has great products at a great time (Do Not Buy SNDK!) and KLAC is going to benefit (IMHO) from increased capex spending.

5/6/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
KLIC	$11.40	$12.67	$0.00	11.1%	18.8%
CYOU	$29.24	$28.93	$0.00	-1.1%	18.8%
RDA	$9.74	$17.72	$0.10	83.1%	18.8%
NVDA	$13.85	$18.54	$0.32	36.2%	18.8%
CF	$183.97	$254.00	$2.80	39.6%	18.8%
Totals				33.8%	18.8%
8/15/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CF	$187.26	$254.00	$2.00	36.7%	14.4%
FLR	$66.06	$76.62	$0.53	16.8%	14.4%
AGX	$15.60	$29.60	$0.75	94.6%	14.4%
KLIC	$11.29	$12.67	$0.00	12.2%	14.4%
RPXC	$15.92	$16.11	$0.00	1.2%	14.4%
Totals				32.3%	14.4%
11/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$17.22	$20.39	$0.00	18.4%	5.2%
ATVI	$17.71	$20.78	$0.00	17.3%	5.2%
GA	$9.04	$11.61	$0.23	31.0%	5.2%
RPXC	$17.04	$16.11	$0.00	-5.5%	5.2%
SYNA	$48.01	$60.49	$0.00	26.0%	5.2%
Totals				17.5%	5.2%
2/1/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
ATVI	$17.13	$20.78	$0.00	21.3%	5.2%
KLAC	$61.47	$70.02	$0.45	14.6%	5.2%
RPXC	$16.22	$16.11	$0.00	-0.7%	5.2%
SNDK	$69.55	$80.10	$0.00	15.2%	5.2%
WNR	$39.11	$40.90	$0.26	5.2%	5.2%
Totals				11.1%	5.2%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	32.3%	17.5%	11.1%	33.8%	24.0%
Previous Tranche	14.1%	43.7%	78.3%	0.0%	31.4%
MFI Overall Gain	50.9%	68.8%	98.1%	33.8%	62.9%
Current Balance	37,723	42,210	49,526	33,445	162,903
R3K Current Tranche	14.4%	43.8%	5.2%	18.8%	20.6%
R3K Overall Gain	39.8%	43.8%	27.4%	18.8%	32.4%
R3K Balance	34,945	35,939	31,852	29,710	132,446
Annualized IRR	29.3%	47.4%	82.6%	39.3%	53.2%

Check out the growth of value (assuming I started with $100K in my MFI tranches since August 2012):

Date	Differential	Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116
Current	30.46%	162,903

Dividend Portfolio

Made some serious changes here this past week.  You know the song "Breaking Up Is Hard to Do"? Well, the same can be true for stocks.  It is easy to just use momentum to keep holding stocks past their sell-by date.  As soon as you sell them, you kind of feel this weight off your back. You have a clean slate - you are free to go with some of your better ideas.  So this week I sold INTC.  I had owned them since 2010.  They have pretty much under performed since 2012.  Hit with double whammy of PC being replaced by tablet and missing the mobile revolution largely.  They always seem to have great new products on the horizon, but it was time to move on for me.  I made 18 to 19% (actually 40% on initial investment).  I also sold 3/4th of my Tmeds (TC-PT). In hindsight, this was a stupid buy on my part.  I had written my investing thesis last August, that was my playbook for the second half of 2013.  But with TC-PT, I just forgot it.  Here is what I said on August 18th (Overall Portfolio Thoughts):

Every now and then, it is a good idea to think about your portfolio a bit.  My general underlying theme is that I believe the US stock market is going to be alright.  I think it is probably a little bit ahead of itself, but I do not see irrational exuberance. At least not in total, there are some individual names that seem pretty fully valued.

There is a lot of money/capital in the system right now, probably in part to the Fed.  So a secondary part of my thinking is that the US (and probably other countries as well) will be using that money to build out infrastructure and larger capex projects as confidence improves that the world will not be ending tomorrow.  A corollary of this thought is that I'd rather be in quasi-growth stocks right now as opposed to value/income stocks.

Finally, China is the potential anchor in my mind.  I think they have over-built, I believe that a planned economy like theirs is not as efficient as we'd like to think, I think that as their labor costs rise (and it is happening) some work will be shifting out of China to other low-cost countries (Philippines?).  China is still a long term growth story in my mind, but until it gets a solid middle/upper-middle class like Western Europe and North America have and the internal demand push that will cause, it will have some ups and downs.  I believe this has repercussions on basic material prices and also potentially luxury goods which have had a great market in China.

So after that epiphany, why would I buy TC-PT, which is directly tied to copper prices?  So I have taken my hit and moved on.  TC-PT was not an out-and-out disaster, even though the final tranche disappointed. Recall I had sold a bunch in July 2013 at over $19.  So the final line (except for small remaining component) is I made 11.8%; while the broader market was up just shy of 16%.

I did buy CTCM this week.  It is a bit of a gamble as they are 100% Russian.  But they about #20 on my list of cheapest/best stocks - so it is a calculated gamble.

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AOD	13,818	8.02	8.27	6,965.50	9.4%	16.9%	-7.5%
BBEP	5,713	16.74	19.94	5,900.95	25.3%	10.3%	15.0%
CSQ	6,804	8.63	11.06	11,467.60	47.6%	51.0%	-3.4%
CTCM	10,000	8.98	8.58	-	-4.5%	0.1%	-4.6%
FGL	3,000	20.06	21.84	195.00	9.2%	1.9%	7.3%
FSC	6,646	9.65	9.44	553.61	-1.3%	1.4%	-2.8%
NTC	6,629	12.00	12.03	755.71	1.2%	1.8%	-0.6%
O	590	20.64	41.10	8,917.32	172.3%	110.7%	61.6%
OIBAX	4,116	4.99	6.05	7,944.17	59.8%	117.7%	-57.9%
PM	1,000	78.60	81.00	-	3.1%	1.2%	1.9%
TC-PT	1,000	16.60	13.30	812.00	-15.0%	13.3%	-28.3%
TGONF	7,000	10.27	10.33	2,367.50	3.8%	14.7%	-10.9%
TPVG	5,000	15.55	16.40	-	5.5%	-0.7%	6.1%
Total Open				45,879	12.5%	13.5%	-1.0%
Closed					12.8%	11.5%	1.3%
Combined					12.7%	11.8%	0.9%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10					16.7%
2014 Gain					-0.7%

Discretionary Portfolio

While a few of my recent purchases are not exactly bearing fruit right now (I am looking at you RIOM and LMNS), as a portfolio this group of stocks continues to be the backbone of my 2014 performance.

As I showed in first table today, GTAT and GNW had great weeks.  Actually, BAC-WTA and C also had terrific weeks as financial stocks seem to be getting some momentum.  I did add CALL to this portfolio during the week. It was #5 on my list of cheapest 200 stocks mid week, let us hope it continues to bear fruit.

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
BAC-WTA	6,000	5.35	8.42	57.4%	19.5%	37.9%
C	1,500	51.52	50.08	-2.8%	2.7%	-5.5%
CALL	2,000	24.13	22.84	-5.3%	0.0%	-5.3%
CS	2,800	29.47	30.94	5.0%	4.0%	1.0%
GNW	9,000	7.10	18.00	153.4%	40.4%	112.9%
GTAT	14,000	3.39	18.61	449.0%	20.6%	428.4%
HIG-WT	1,650	21.24	26.83	26.3%	14.8%	11.5%
IWM	126	119.28	118.61	-0.6%	-0.5%	0.0%
KLIC	7,000	11.48	12.67	10.4%	10.4%	0.0%
LMNS	20,000	12.57	11.90	-5.4%	0.0%	-5.4%
RIOM	25,000	2.25	1.92	-14.7%	1.0%	-15.8%
Total Open				41.1%	7.8%	33.3%
Closed				4.3%	2.1%	2.2%
Combined				14.7%	3.7%	10.9%

Check out GTAT. Now +449%.  And that uses the $3.39 price when in reality I bought at $2.73 (I held that for a month and sold at $3.41 and then re-bought several weeks later at $3.39). One stock performing like that will cover a lot of mistakes.

Have a great weekend everyone!  Here is a little Al Green for you: