Saturday, March 01, 2014

February 22nd 2013 Monthly Tracking Portfolio

February 22nd 2013 Monthly Tracking Portfolio

Another month has zipped by. As my faithful readers know, I have been tracking the Magic Formula Stocks as described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats the Stock Market since January 2006.  Every month I take the top 50 stocks over $100m market cap from his website and track how that portfolio of stocks fares versus the Russell 3000 for the next 12 months.  It has been an uphill struggle as the tracking portfolios have under-performed, driven in part by Chinese reverse merger fiascos, for-profit education stocks and home health care stocks all being proverbial albatrosses.

 Fearless readers will recall we had a 29 month "losing streak"..  This month-end extended the winning streak to 9! It went up an excellent 46.5 %,stomping the R3K, which was up a less excellent 26.4%! Here are the 50 stocks in descending performance order (just a stunning list of successes this month):

Stock  Initial Price   End Price  Percent Change  52 week low   Mkt Cap 
GTAT                3.15           14.33 354.9%                 2.61           375
SAVE              21.01           56.48 168.8%                20.36         1,522
nus              37.78           83.52 121.1%                40.15         2,246
CPLA              32.22           66.48 106.3%                28.49           401
QCOR              30.16           60.75 101.4%                26.80         1,806
PBI              12.76           25.45 99.5%                12.98         2,662
NOC              63.82         121.03 89.6%                64.20       15,781
BAH              11.28           21.03 86.4%                12.51         1,780
HLF              35.77           66.60 86.2%                34.72         3,933
RTN              53.11           97.91 84.4%                53.76       17,856
APOL              18.58           33.33 79.4%                15.98         2,091
STX              30.70           52.19 70.0%                31.55       11,383
ESI              18.63           31.03 66.6%                11.95           435
WCRX              13.78           22.93 66.4%                10.85         3,462
STRZA              19.28           31.98 65.9%                18.77         2,452
AGX              17.34           28.59 64.9%                13.90           250
BLC                8.54           13.74 60.9%                 7.37           898
SAI              10.46           16.49 57.7%                  N/A          3,902
CACI              50.68           78.83 55.5%                50.35         1,163
GME              24.07           37.31 55.0%                23.36         3,001
POZN                5.15             7.96 54.6%                 4.26           190
LPS              24.84           37.30 50.2%                21.23         2,137
MYGN              25.01           36.21 44.8%                20.02         2,033
MSFT              26.97           38.31 42.0%                27.64     232,462
CA              23.77           33.50 40.9%                24.01       11,071
ATVI              14.32           19.35 35.1%                13.27       16,121
AFAM              20.82           27.42 31.7%                17.66           194
VCI              25.82           34.00 31.7%                23.69         1,056
PDLI                6.53             8.57 31.2%                 6.83         1,333
USMO              11.24           14.45 28.6%                11.10           253
DMRC              23.02           29.38 27.6%                17.85           160
RPXC              12.65           16.02 26.6%                11.78           658
CF            198.89         250.90 26.2%              169.33       12,676
AAPL            439.69         526.24 19.7%              385.10     423,298
EBIX              13.77           16.25 18.0%                 8.21           514
NATR              12.96           15.11 16.6%                13.30           227
CSCO              20.28           21.80 7.5%                19.98     111,251
COH              45.67           48.81 6.9%                44.31       13,131
NSU                3.66             3.87 5.7%                 2.65           763
MSB              21.47           22.22 3.5%                17.07           305
DELL              13.68           13.86 1.3%                  N/A        24,193
SVLC                2.34             2.32 -0.9%                 1.13           210
GTIV              10.99           10.71 -2.5%                 8.47           338
NTI              25.67           24.18 -5.8%                17.83           525
STRA              52.25           47.77 -8.6%                33.51           595
HFC              51.98           45.57 -12.3%                38.98       11,297
TNAV                7.38             6.01 -18.6%                 4.91           303
EGY                8.26             6.66 -19.4%                 5.03           478
INTX                9.76             6.13 -37.2%                 5.62           191
BODY                7.83             3.12 -60.2%                 2.92           128


Hey check out who was #1!!!! That was even higher than my initial purchase price ($2.73). For profit Education Stocks were again NOT a drag.  The 4 of them were up on average by a whopping 61%. And there were five stocks up 100% or more (including GTAT).  I do think things are continuing to change.  You can see that in the next table!

Here is a listing of every portfolio I have tracked:

Average of Percent Change
Date Total       IWV
1/6/2006 16.0% 10.9%
2/17/2006 21.2% 14.6%
3/29/2006 13.0% 9.6%
4/7/2006 10.3% 12.1%
5/12/2006 20.4% 18.6%
5/31/2006 29.2% 23.3%
6/30/2006 22.4% 20.0%
7/31/2006 19.7% 17.3%
8/31/2006 13.0% 13.3%
9/28/2006 12.7% 14.6%
10/27/2006 10.3% 12.0%
11/29/2006 -0.3% 4.8%
12/28/2006 -6.9% 3.4%
1/26/2007 -10.2% -6.6%
2/27/2007 -3.7% -1.0%
3/26/2007 -9.8% -5.5%
4/27/2007 -10.9% -5.0%
5/29/2007 -11.5% -6.3%
7/3/2007 -30.0% -15.6%
7/30/2007 -19.9% -11.5%
8/30/2007 -12.5% -8.7%
9/27/2007 -19.0% -18.2%
11/2/2007 -40.4% -34.3%
11/28/2007 -40.1% -38.3%
12/28/2007 -36.3% -40.0%
1/25/2008 -36.4% -35.9%
2/26/2008 -51.7% -41.5%
3/24/2008 -40.9% -36.8%
4/25/2008 -25.6% -31.0%
5/28/2008 -22.2% -33.6%
7/2/2008 -11.7% -25.3%
7/29/2008 -10.5% -20.9%
8/29/2008 -13.8% -17.9%
9/26/2008 -4.3% -10.0%
10/31/2008 18.7% 13.9%
11/26/2008 50.9% 27.7%
12/26/2008 48.9% 32.3%
1/23/2009 59.3% 36.4%
2/27/2009 92.8% 55.6%
3/27/2009 85.8% 48.1%
4/24/2009 69.7% 45.8%
5/29/2009 31.8% 22.8%
6/29/2009 21.3% 24.0%
7/29/2009 19.5% 15.9%
8/28/2009 7.4% 8.8%
9/25/2009 12.6% 12.4%
10/30/2009 22.7% 18.3%
11/27/2009 24.3% 13.6%
12/31/2009 23.7% 18.1%
1/22/2010 19.0% 20.6%
2/26/2010 18.6% 23.6%
3/25/2010 10.0% 15.4%
4/23/2010 7.1% 11.4%
5/28/2010 19.3% 25.4%
6/29/2010 16.7% 25.7%
7/29/2010 5.4% 20.1%
9/2/2010 7.3% 10.1%
9/24/2010 -4.3% 0.3%
10/29/2010 -2.9% 10.4%
11/26/2010 -8.5% 1.4%
1/3/2011 -11.4% 0.1%
1/28/2011 -7.6% 4.9%
2/25/2011 -5.5% 5.0%
3/24/2011 -4.4% 7.4%
4/21/2011 -16.0% 3.2%
5/27/2011 -12.0% -0.4%
6/24/2011 -9.5% 5.0%
7/29/2011 -4.3% 8.1%
8/26/2011 12.0% 21.6%
9/30/2011 23.5% 29.6%
10/28/2011 0.4% 11.5%
11/25/2011 13.9% 24.0%
12/29/2011 9.9% 15.9%
1/27/2012 7.4% 16.6%
2/24/2012 7.8% 13.3%
3/23/2012 9.1% 15.2%
4/27/2012 10.5% 15.3%
5/25/2012 26.5% 27.5%
6/22/2012 26.1% 24.6%
7/27/2012 30.4% 25.7%
8/24/2012 26.0% 19.8%
9/28/2012 39.3% 22.1%
10/26/2012 48.3% 28.9%
11/23/2012 45.7% 32.1%
12/31/2012 52.3% 33.0%
1/25/2013 39.5% 22.0%
2/22/2013 46.5% 26.4%
3/28/2013 42.6% 21.6%
4/26/2013 33.7% 20.9%
5/24/2013 21.5% 15.9%
6/28/2013 23.1% 17.9%
7/29/2013 16.1% 12.6%
8/30/2013 13.3% 15.7%
9/27/2013 10.5% 11.0%
10/25/2013 4.5% 6.6%
11/29/2013 1.2% 4.2%
12/31/2013 0.1% 1.4%
1/31/2014 3.9% 4.7%


As noted, this is the ninth straight portfolio to win after 29 straight losses! (that is hard to do... it ain't random).  It may be a bad omen that the 6 newest portfolios are all trailing.  Still some time to go.

Subsets


I also keep 2 subsets of the larger portfolios:  (1) dividend stocks (those with a yield per Yahoo of at least 2.6%) and (2) new stocks (those new to the tracking portfolios in past 12 months.  The dividend portfolio was most excellent, up about 46.7%.  The new portfolio was solid okay, up 32.6%.  Finally, I like to track cash as it is more "honest" than percentages as if you go up by 25% and then down by 25%, that is a different result than up by 5% then down by 5%.  So I track what you would have to day if you had spread $100,000 over the first twelve portfolios evenly.

Category Value
Total   172,213
Total New   176,409
Total Dividend   376,078
Total Russell 3K   173,509

You can see that the dividend approach is doing well.  But overall, MFI is starting to lag just the R3K again.  I have written some blogs on what has caused that (Why Has MFI Performed Poorly?).  Onward! Time to create the new portfolio.


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