Saturday, March 01, 2014

Weekend Update - We Made It To March!

Weekend Update - March 1st, 2014

The calendar says March, the thermometer says winter.  It reads -1 this morning. Weatherman says another storm is coming this way later Sunday early Monday.

Drinking my first cup of java.  Just finished doing my "exercises".  I am almost assuredly going to gain some weight through this ordeal if I am not careful.  I am just less active since hurting my knee and also it is easy to munch.

Overall Thoughts

Post my taking "stock" and getting some cash in the door from year-end bonus, I was pretty active in the markets this week.  So far I am comfortable with my moves, but one week is too early to judge.  Funny, if you had asked me at the end of Friday whether I had a decent week, I would have said "no".  But looking back, I was up a very snappy 1.6%!  The market was up 1.2%.  So it was a good week. For the year I am up 4.9%, versus 1.4% for R3K.  So Hooray!

MFI Portfolio

I was looking at my MFI tranches in total, and you can certainly say that February was a good month. I started the month with a 24.7 point lead over R3K and ended up 25.6 points.  Assuming I started my MFI reboot with 100,000, I started February at $150,619 and now I start March at $158,119. Pretty hard to complain about that.  However, my newest tranche, February 1st 2014 is (gasp) trailing the R3K! It is up 3.8%, versus 4.7% for the benchmark (pretty good Feb for benchmark!). As additional benchmarks, my "rejects" for the February tranche are up 7.4% and the five runoff stocks are up 5.2%) WNR is the major culprit. It is down 6%.  As I have mentioned many times, these refiners are largely beholden to crack spreads and the trend has not been our friend in February per this chart (a chart of this spread here). But is a marathon, not a sprint. And frankly if the spreads continue to narrow, I may buy more in my next tranche. They generally reverse at some point.

5/6/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
KLIC $11.40 $11.54 $0.00 1.2% 18.3%
CYOU $29.24 $29.24 $0.00 0.0% 18.3%
RDA $9.74 $18.06 $0.10 86.5% 18.3%
NVDA $13.85 $18.38 $0.32 35.0% 18.3%
CF $183.97 $250.90 $2.80 37.9% 18.3%
Totals 32.1% 18.3%
8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $250.90 $2.00 35.1% 13.9%
FLR $66.06 $77.69 $0.53 18.4% 13.9%
AGX $15.60 $28.59 $0.75 88.1% 13.9%
KLIC $11.29 $11.54 $0.00 2.2% 13.9%
RPXC $15.92 $16.02 $0.00 0.6% 13.9%
Totals 28.9% 13.9%
11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $18.73 $0.00 8.8% 4.7%
ATVI $17.71 $19.35 $0.00 9.3% 4.7%
GA $9.04 $11.38 $0.23 28.5% 4.7%
RPXC $17.04 $16.02 $0.00 -6.0% 4.7%
SYNA $48.01 $65.04 $0.00 35.5% 4.7%
Totals 15.2% 4.7%
2/1/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
ATVI $17.13 $19.35 $0.00 13.0% 4.7%
KLAC $61.47 $65.15 $0.45 6.7% 4.7%
RPXC $16.22 $16.02 $0.00 -1.2% 4.7%
SNDK $69.55 $74.30 $0.00 6.8% 4.7%
WNR $39.11 $36.45 $0.26 -6.1% 4.7%
Totals 3.8% 4.7%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment      25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 28.9% 15.2% 3.8% 32.1% 20.3%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 43.7% 78.3% 0.0% 30.9%
MFI Overall Gain 47.0% 65.6% 85.1% 32.1% 57.4%
Current Balance      36,748       41,397     46,269      33,035    157,449
R3K Current Tranche 13.9% 43.1% 4.7% 18.3% 20.0%
R3K Overall Gain 39.2% 43.1% 26.8% 18.3% 31.9%
R3K Balance      34,788       35,777     31,708      29,578    131,850
Annualized IRR 28.4% 47.8% 77.1% 40.5% 52.0%

Discretionary Stocks

Sometimes it feels like the discretionary portfolio is all about GTAT.  This week, GTAT skyrocketed 18%! When your largest holding does that, it really helps. That being said, I certainly had some other successes.  I increased my FGL holdings by 50% and was rewarded with a 6% uptick on the week. I increased my CS holdings by 50% - on some news about helping US citizens evade taxes - an that was up almost 2% post my add.  RIOM was my albatross (as was TC-PT in my dividend portfolio), down 11.7%. I came very close a couple times during the week to buying more.

I do now have three "post-IPO" plays in this portfolio. FGL is a stock I am very comfortable with and will likely hold longer term (recall I graded them an "A"). MBUU announces their earnings on next Friday, and I have decided to hold through their earnings (unless they move up materially pre-earnings). LMNS is my most recent add from this past week.  I went in relatively "big" (they are my #6 largest holding, between INTC and BBEP).  There is undoubtedly "risk" in this play, I would certainly call in more speculative than investing.  But I have been following these stocks post IPO for 6 to 8 months and the patterns have been favorable much more often than not, so at least it is a calculated risk.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BAC-WTA         6,000               5.35                 7.20                     -   34.6% 18.9% 15.6%
C         1,500             51.52               48.63                     -   -5.6% 2.2% -7.8%
CS         2,800             29.47               31.37                     -   6.4% 3.5% 2.9%
FGL         3,000             20.06               21.66                     -   8.0% 1.5% 6.5%
GNW         9,000               7.10               15.54                     -   118.7% 39.8% 78.9%
GTAT       14,000               3.39               14.33                     -   322.7% 20.1% 302.6%
HIG-WT         1,650             21.24               26.42                     -   24.4% 14.3% 10.1%
KLIC         7,000             11.48               11.54                     -   0.6% 9.9% -9.4%
LMNS         8,000             12.94               12.20                     -   -5.7% 0.1% -5.8%
MBUU         4,000             17.50               18.43                     -   5.3% 4.7% 0.6%
RIOM       15,000               2.26                 2.12                     -   -6.2% 1.6% -7.8%
SIRI       15,000               3.73                 3.61                     -   -3.2% 2.8% -6.0%
           
           
           
Total Open                     -   33.5% 8.8% 24.8%
Closed 5.0% 2.3% 2.7%
Combined 14.3% 4.4% 9.9%

Dividend Portfolio

I know this continues to be the laggard of my three portfolios. But I am okay with that.  This is not meant to be the "sizzle".  This is meant to be steady.  To produce an ever-increasing stream of income.  It is important as an investor to focus on more that just "valuation".  If you do not plan to sell your stocks tomorrow, valuation is frankly largely meaningless.  The markets swing around from time to time.  Do not get hypnotized.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD       13,818            8.02             8.46        6,188.89 11.1% 16.4% -5.3%
BBEP         5,713          16.74           19.99        4,962.84 24.6% 9.8% 14.8%
CSQ         6,718            8.60           11.15      10,996.89 48.6% 51.1% -2.5%
FSC         6,646            9.65             9.82                     -   1.7% 1.0% 0.8%
INTC         3,754          22.25           24.76        5,335.45 17.6% 34.7% -17.1%
NTC         6,629          12.00           12.17            377.85 1.9% 1.3% 0.5%
O             585          20.46           44.42        8,916.85 191.6% 111.7% 79.9%
OIBAX         4,093            4.99             6.08        7,881.68 60.5% 117.4% -56.9%
PM         1,000          78.60           80.91                     -   2.9% 0.7% 2.2%
TC-PT         4,000          15.39           15.03        5,686.40 6.9% 18.5% -11.6%
TGONF         7,000          10.27           10.80        1,317.50 7.0% 14.2% -7.2%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open            51,664 17.4% 20.0% -2.6%
Closed 12.8% 10.8% 2.0%
Combined 13.6% 12.3% 1.3%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 17.3%
2014 Gain 0.8%


I added to this portfolio quite a bit this week. I bought PM, added to AODBBEP and FSC. I made a cool "income" table, to illustrate the power of this portfolio and the power of compounding. This table shows the monthly and rolling quarterly dividends that this portfolio would generate, assuming reinvested dividends, no change in stock price and constant dividends (hopefully I will get some growth).  Also, these all incorporate my "factor".

Rolling Quarter Month AOD BBEP CSQ FSC INTC NTC O OIBAX PM TC-PT TGONF
3/1/2014      781        928      470      554          -        378      107         70       940    1,050
4/1/2014      786        936      473      559          -        380      107         70    1,675
             14,440 5/1/2014      791        944      476      563      845      381      107         70
             14,520 6/1/2014      796        951      479      568          -        383      108         70       951    1,050
             14,590 7/1/2014      802        959      482      573          -        385      108         71           -      1,675           -  
             14,663 8/1/2014      807        967      485      578      847      387      109         71           -             -             -  
             14,745 9/1/2014      813        975      488      583          -        389      109         71       963           -      1,050
             14,816 10/1/2014      818        983      491      588          -        390      110         72           -      1,675           -  
             14,890 11/1/2014      823        991      494      593      850      392      110         72           -             -             -  
             14,974 12/1/2014      829        999      498      598          -        394      110         72       974           -      1,050
             15,047 1/1/2015      834    1,007      501      603          -        396      111         72           -      1,675           -  
             15,123 2/1/2015      840    1,015      504      608      852      398      111         73           -             -             -  
             15,208 3/1/2015      846    1,023      507      613          -        400      112         73       986           -      1,050
             15,282 4/1/2015      851    1,031      510      618          -        402      112         73           -      1,675           -  
             15,360 5/1/2015      857    1,040      513      623      855      403      113         74           -             -             -  
             15,447 6/1/2015      863    1,048      517      629          -        405      113         74       997           -      1,050
             15,523 7/1/2015      868    1,057      520      634          -        407      114         74           -      1,675           -  
             15,602 8/1/2015      874    1,065      523      639      857      409      114         74           -             -             -  
             15,691 9/1/2015      880    1,074      526      645          -        411      115         75    1,009           -      1,050
             15,769 10/1/2015      886    1,083      530      650          -        413      115         75           -      1,675           -  
             15,850 11/1/2015      892    1,092      533      656      860      415      116         75           -             -             -  
             15,941 12/1/2015      898    1,100      536      661          -        417      116         76    1,021           -      1,050
             16,020 1/1/2016      904    1,109      540      667          -        419      116         76           -      1,675           -  
             16,102 2/1/2016      910    1,118      543      673      863      421      117         76           -             -             -  
             16,195 3/1/2016      916    1,128      547      678          -        423      117         77    1,034           -      1,050
             16,276 4/1/2016      922    1,137      550      684          -        425      118         77           -      1,675           -  
             16,361 5/1/2016      928    1,146      553      690      865      427      118         77           -             -             -  
             16,455 6/1/2016      934    1,155      557      696          -        429      119         77    1,046           -      1,050
             16,538 7/1/2016      941    1,165      560      702          -        431      119         78           -      1,675           -  
             16,624 8/1/2016      947    1,174      564      708      868      433      120         78           -             -             -  
             16,721 9/1/2016      953    1,184      567      714          -        435      120         78    1,058           -      1,050

So you can see this portfolio is currently spinning off every quarter $14,440 in income. With reinvesting (note I do not reinvest TC-PT or TGONF), that will grow to $16,721 by September 2016. Recall that the Richest Man in Babylon preached the importance of compounding, "so the children of your gold will create more children".  I do not what my readers see in this table, but I see an important cornerstone of my retirement income. I am 54.  If you ran this out 6 years, to 2020 and assumed I did not add more money (which I surely would), you would be at about $21,000 every quarter (with my factor) at age 60.

Wrap Up

Well, I am sure you all get the picture.  Things are going well.  I'd like to think I am positioned ok for a downturn.  I am about 24% in cash still.  I have two short term holdings (MBUU and LMNS) that when sold would take me closer to 28%.

I will write more this weekend as a tracking portfolio has completed.

No comments: