Sunday, March 16, 2014

Listing

A Few Listings

In my MFI Diary, I keep track of a lot of things.  I actually enjoy it.  I share every week the performance of my portfolio - by component.  But I also have a lot of other lists.  I thought I would share some today, just as a catch up.  Who knows, maybe we can discover a few useful nuggets?

Not sure if anyone read Barron's yesterday, but it seems to me that even the "cheap" stocks are now not really that cheap.  They did not say that the market would drop, but they did say that the market rising from here is driven by momentum.  The quote by

Jeremy Grantham

 that caught my eye was: "Bubbles don't usually stop until sensible investors, value investors, and prudent investors have been hung out to dry and kicked around the block. That hasn't happened yet, so that tells you there is probably quite a bit left in this rally.".

Contest Update

At the start of the year (actually in Mid December, I set up a portfolio of 10 stocks for the year to compete with top 10 listings by Barron's, Merrill Lynch and others.  Here is the status in mid-March:

Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
MFI Diary GNW          15.53            16.62                      -   7.0%
GTAT             8.72            16.81                      -   92.8%
SBS          11.34               8.60                      -   -24.2%
HIMX          14.72            14.69                      -   -0.2%
HIG-WT          27.53            26.63                      -   -3.3%
KLIC          13.30            12.33                      -   -7.3%
CF        233.04          252.32                  1.00 8.7%
BAC-WTA             6.47               7.99                      -   23.5%
RPXC          16.90            15.93                      -   -5.7%
ATVI          17.83            21.00                      -   17.8%
Total 10.9%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Barron's ABX          17.63            20.91                      -   18.6%
CNQ          33.10            35.80                      -   8.2%
DE          91.33            87.20                      -   -4.5%
GM          40.87            34.09                      -   -16.6%
INTC          25.96            24.50                  0.23 -4.8%
MET          53.92            51.71                  0.28 -3.6%
NSRGY          73.59            73.49                      -   -0.1%
SPG        152.16          161.07                  1.25 6.7%
AAL          30.02            36.34                      -   21.1%
C          52.11            46.88                  0.01 -10.0%
Total 1.5%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
ML/BAC ADM          43.40            42.51                  0.24 -1.5%
CAT          90.81            95.39                  0.60 5.7%
CTL          31.85            30.62                      -   -3.9%
C          52.11            46.88                  0.01 -10.0%
CSCO          22.43            21.35                  0.17 -4.1%
DVA          63.37            68.20                      -   7.6%
XOM        101.20            93.47                  0.63 -7.0%
GM          40.87            34.09                      -   -16.6%
NEE          85.62            94.26                      -   10.1%
NUE          53.38            48.50                      -   -9.1%
Total -2.9%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Eric Y CA          33.65            31.48                  0.25 -5.7%
CLCT          17.15            18.88                  0.33 12.0%
CSCO          22.43            21.35                  0.17 -4.1%
LO          50.68            51.86                  0.62 3.5%
MANT          29.93            29.15                      -   -2.6%
MSFT          37.41            37.70                  0.28 1.5%
PETS          16.63            13.10                  0.17 -20.2%
RGR          73.09            62.15                      -   -15.0%
USMO          14.28            15.49                      -   8.5%
VCI          34.25            34.02                      -   -0.7%
Total -2.3%
Player Stock Start Current Dividends Change
Cantor/Fitz AAPL        561.02          524.69                  3.05 -5.9%
JNPR          22.57            25.62                      -   13.5%
DLR          49.12            51.51                      -   4.9%
FB          54.65            67.72                      -   23.9%
GOOG    1,120.71      1,172.80                      -   4.6%
DATA          68.93            90.31                      -   31.0%
SPLK          68.67            84.57                      -   23.2%
SVU             7.29               6.56                      -   -10.0%
TMO        111.35          122.25                      -   9.8%
VSTM          11.40            12.34                      -   8.2%
Total 10.3%


I am definitely holding my own - really helped by GTAT.  But that is the way of investing.  If you can just get a few good stocks, the rest of your picks can be so-so and you can still have very satisfactory results.

2014 Transactions

Here are all my buys in 2014 thus far.  I have to say I am really thinking about the recent quarter by CALL.  I am starting to think it is the real deal and even though it is up 70% since I almost bought in November, there may still be a lot of upside.  It may make my May tranche if it doesn't run away.

Date Stock O/C Purchase Current $ Gain % Gain
1/13 KLIC Op 12.01 12.33 640 2.7%
1/13 SIRI Cl 3.73 3.37 -5,352 -9.6%
1/14 TC Cl 2.56 2.58 200 0.8%
1/16 C Op 52.67 46.88 -5,785 -11.0%
1/17 RIOM Op 2.26 2.36 1,500 4.4%
1/21 FGL Cl 19.75 19.80 200 0.3%
1/21 NTC Op 12.00 12.14 1,652 2.1%
1/24 C Op 49.22 46.88 -1,170 -4.8%
1/27 TWM Cl 50.45 50.72 1,100 0.5%
1/31 ATVI Op 17.16 21.00 8,950 22.4%
1/31 KLAC Op 61.35 66.88 3,896 9.7%
1/31 MBUU Cl 17.50 19.18 6,720 9.6%
1/31 RPXC Op 16.13 15.93 -505 -1.3%
1/31 SNDK Op 70.20 73.28 1,753 4.4%
1/31 WNR Op 39.80 40.66 1,122 2.8%
2/10 IEV Cl 46.28 48.08 567 3.9%
2/10 MUSA Cl 39.00 39.04 60 0.1%
2/12 AGII Cl 43.53 44.00 705 1.1%
2/13 FGL Op 20.08 23.53 7,030 17.5%
2/14 MUSA Cl 39.25 39.04 -105 -0.5%
2/18 FSC Op 9.64 9.40 -728 -1.6%
2/24 AOD Op 8.33 8.29 -120 -0.5%
2/24 FGL Op 20.01 23.53 3,585 17.9%
2/24 KLIC Op 11.52 12.33 1,215 7.0%
2/24 PM Op 78.60 79.89 1,290 1.6%
2/26 CS Op 30.78 30.25 -527 -1.7%
2/26 FSC Op 9.68 9.40 -393 -2.0%
2/27 BBEP Op 19.47 20.16 854 4.4%
2/27 LMNS Op 12.94 11.72 -9,750 -9.4%
3/4 RIOM Op 2.24 2.36 1,200 5.4%
3/6 PXLW Cl 7.39 7.63 2,377 3.2%
3/7 LMNS Op 12.49 11.72 -6,160 -6.2%
3/7 PXLW Cl 8.90 6.92 -9,920 -22.3%
3/7 TPVG Op 15.55 16.20 3,250 4.2%
3/10 IWM Op 119.28 117.54 -219 -1.5%
3/13 CALL Cl 21.20 22.43 2,460 5.8%
Grand Total 11,592

Not unbelievably great, but in a market that has been pretty sideways, not bad either so far.  PXLW and LMNS have been the albatrosses so far.

Post IPO Buys

As my readers know, I have been dabbling in the post IPO market.  This is pretty risky stuff, so go into it with your eyes open and understand this is not necessarily value investing.  So far I have had generally good success.  Here is an update on how my buys have done and also how they have done post sale - which is pretty interesting.

Date Stock O/C Purchase Curr/Sold $ Gain % Gain Current
10/18 VJET Cl 22.09 24.13 2,040 9.2% 28.54
10/30 SCAI Cl 26.80 26.95 465 0.6% 31.17
12/11 ATHM Cl 28.80 35.03 18,690 21.6% 41.44
1/21 FGL Cl 19.75 19.80 200 0.3% 23.53
1/31 MBUU Cl 17.50 19.18 6,720 9.6% 22.68
2/13 FGL Op 20.08 23.53 6,900 17.5% 23.53
2/24 FGL Op 20.01 23.53 3,520 17.9% 23.53
2/27 LMNS Op 12.94 11.72 -9,750 -9.4% 11.72
3/7 LMNS Op 12.49 11.72 -6,160 -6.2% 11.72
3/7 TPVG Op 15.55 16.20 3,250 4.2% 16.20
Grand Total 25,875 50,300

MFI Via Options

While I have not used options at anytime, I have tracked how a grouping of MFI stocks would have done had you bought options.  Here is a group I started in mid-January:

Stock Start Price Strike Expire Dt Option Price Current/Final Option Price Change
AAPL             531.88         30.00 1/17/15           69.50                       56.04 -19%
APOL                30.38         27.00 1/17/15              6.80                         7.90 16%
ATVI                18.16         17.00 1/17/15              2.75                         4.75 73%
CA                33.88         30.00 1/17/15              4.70                         3.10 -34%
COH                56.00         52.50 1/17/15              7.60                         2.95 -61%
CRUS                19.09         18.00 1/17/15              4.40                         3.50 -20%
CSCO                22.20         20.00 1/17/15              3.00                         2.19 -27%
GME                45.38         40.00 1/17/15              9.45                         4.80 -49%
HLF                81.90         77.50 1/17/15           19.10                         5.80 -70%
LO                49.39         45.00 1/17/15              5.90                         8.30 41%
MO                37.21         32.00 1/17/15              5.50                         4.85 -12%
MSFT                35.89         30.00 1/17/15              6.55                         8.05 23%
MYGN                23.65         20.00 1/17/15              5.00                       15.20 204%
NOC             116.19      100.00 1/17/15           18.50                       22.10 19%
QCOR                52.15         45.00 1/17/15           15.60                       25.90 66%
RAI                48.37         45.00 1/17/15              4.75                       10.60 123%
RGR                80.75         75.50 1/17/15              9.27                         3.00 -68%
RTN                90.44         85.00 1/17/15              9.70                       16.40 69%
SWHC                14.96         12.00 1/17/15              3.60                         2.65 -26%
UIS                32.01         30.00 1/17/15              6.00                         4.50 -25%
WTW                32.85         30.00 1/17/15              5.90                         1.00 -83%
FLR                79.04         75.00 1/17/15           10.40                         6.90 -34%
CF             246.08      210.00 1/17/15           47.00                       52.00 11%
HPQ                27.52         25.00 1/17/15              4.50                         5.38 20%
Average 6%

As you can see, this approach is not for the faint of heart.  You could only even think about it across a large portfolio and be prepared in a down market to lose over 50%. Pass.

MFI Index For The Week

Here is a listing of how my 50 stock MFI Index performed this past week:

Stock Start Last Week Current YTD Change          Weekly         Change
  ATVI      17.83         20.11         21.00 17.8% 4.4%
  MO      38.39         36.81         36.34 -5.3% -1.3%
  APOL      27.32         32.99         32.24 18.0% -2.3%
  AAPL    561.02      533.49       527.74 -5.9% -1.1%
  AGX      27.56         28.94         28.28 2.6% -2.3%
  BAH      19.15         21.98         21.77 13.7% -1.0%
  BKE      52.56         48.05         45.41 -13.6% -5.5%
  CA      33.65         33.18         31.73 -5.7% -4.4%
  CACI      73.22         78.78         76.09 3.9% -3.4%
  CHE      76.62         86.20         85.90 12.1% -0.3%
  CRUS      20.43         19.36         19.06 -6.7% -1.5%
  CSCO      22.43         21.90         21.52 -4.1% -1.7%
  COH      56.13         48.82         49.45 -11.9% 1.3%
  CRTX         9.49           9.50            9.50 0.1% 0.0%
  DLX      52.19         52.39         52.94 1.4% 1.0%
  DHX         7.25           7.25            7.01 -3.3% -3.3%
  EBIX      14.71         17.16         17.07 16.0% -0.5%
  EGL      33.40         44.91         43.86 31.3% -2.3%
  GME      49.26         38.52         38.98 -20.9% 1.2%
  GTIV      12.41           8.72            8.83 -28.8% 1.3%
  GNI      68.10         21.80         21.69 -68.1% -0.5%
  HLF      78.70         65.04         58.34 -25.9% -10.3%
  IQNT      11.41         14.81         14.16 24.1% -4.4%
  ESI      33.58         29.85         28.50 -15.1% -4.5%
  LPS      37.38         37.30         37.30 -0.2% 0.0%
  LQDT      22.66         26.72         26.63 17.5% -0.3%
  LO      50.68         53.61         52.48 3.5% -2.1%
  MSFT      37.41         38.18         37.98 1.5% -0.5%
  MYGN      20.98         38.17         35.01 66.9% -8.3%
  NATR      17.32         15.62         15.73 -9.2% 0.7%
  NOC    114.61      124.91       122.05 6.5% -2.3%
  PDLI         8.44           8.27            8.26 -2.1% 0.0%
  PFMT      10.30           8.00            7.78 -24.5% -2.8%
  PETS      16.63         14.42         13.27 -20.2% -8.0%
  PRSC      25.72         28.85         27.44 6.7% -4.9%
  QCOR      54.45         66.30         63.60 16.8% -4.1%
  RTN      90.70      101.27       100.09 10.4% -1.2%
  RAI      49.99         53.55         55.01 10.0% 2.7%
  RPXC      16.90         15.95         15.93 -5.7% -0.1%
  SAIC      33.07         38.06         35.33 6.8% -7.2%
  SWHC      13.49         13.79         13.92 3.2% 0.9%
  STRA      34.47         47.49         46.03 33.5% -3.1%
  RGR      73.09         64.42         62.15 -15.0% -3.5%
  UIS      33.57         33.32         29.99 -10.7% -10.0%
  UNTD      13.76         11.07         10.94 -20.5% -1.2%
  USMO      14.28         14.68         15.49 8.5% 5.5%
  USNA      75.58         73.39         72.27 -4.4% -1.5%
  VCI      34.25         34.02         34.02 -0.7% 0.0%
  VGR      16.37         20.75         21.43 30.9% 3.3%
  WTW      32.93         20.46         20.48 -37.8% 0.1%
Total    17,682      18,016       17,673 -0.1% -1.9%

Obviously it has been a struggle so far this year.  The past week was pretty much parallel with my own overall portfolio and R3K.

My Top 20 Stocks of All Time

Here is a listing of my 20 best stocks of all time in overall $ gain (with multipler).  No surprise GTAT leads the list:

Stock Gain Cumulative Gain % of Total
GTAT 202,087 202,087 16.6%
GNW 71,062 273,149 22.5%
IST 64,863 338,013 27.8%
SBS 55,630 393,643 32.4%
HIMX 46,620 440,263 36.2%
VR 41,242 481,505 39.6%
TC 38,861 520,366 42.8%
CSQ 38,771 559,137 46.0%
PVD 37,277 596,413 49.0%
NUS 36,439 632,853 52.0%
RNR-C 33,480 666,333 54.8%
ENH-A 33,076 699,409 57.5%
PM 32,216 731,625 60.2%
KMF 27,528 759,153 62.4%
PRE 27,235 786,388 64.7%
JPM 26,589 812,977 66.9%
GA 26,192 839,169 69.0%
OMG 26,005 865,174 71.2%
CSCO 25,542 890,715 73.3%
HFC 25,350 916,066 75.3%

So you can see my top 20 stocks account for 75% of my overall gains (I have been tracking since 2002 and I have owned over 400 securities).  That emphasizes my point about a few good stocks.

Results By Country

Here is a table from my MFI tracking that shows results by country.  Obviously the vast majority of companies are USA.  You can see how bad China is (a lot of the reverse mergers in there).  I also noticed that Israel is pretty strong (Magic Jack anybody?).

Country Avg Pct Chg Count
 Bermuda  56.4%             1
 British Virgin Islands  26.6%             2
 Canada  7.1%         186
 Cayman Islands  43.7%           40
 China  -26.5%         106
 Ireland  29.1%           39
 Israel  24.1%           30
 Netherlands  42.2%           18
 Russia  152.5%             9
 South Africa  -14.1%           14
 Switzerland  16.6%           18
 Taiwan  -27.5%           24
 United Kingdom  11.5%             8
 USA  9.9%      4,372
 Grand Total  9.7%      4,867

Results By # Of Letters

This one always feels a little funny, but what the heck.

Letters Avg Pct Chg Count
 2  20.6%         186
 3  15.0%      1,804
 4  6.9%      2,806
 5  0.0%           21
 7  -53.6%           37
 8  -66.1%           13
 Grand Total  9.7%      4,867

Stunning, isn't it?  Perfect descending order.  Hard to believe a single letter stock has never made the list - just imagine (ha-ha) how well it would do.  Hey, Kellogg is K.  What are the two letter stocks currently on the list?  MO, CA and LO.

I think I have rambled on long enough.




1 comment:

Unknown said...

Interesting lists. Thanks.
You might remember that we had some discussions about the long dated options earlier this year/late last year. I went ahead and bought a group of them. Almost all sold now for a gain on each. MSFT today I hope. I will tabulate the results for your info. As you said, not for the faint of heart. Cheers, Karl