Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Broke My Losing Streak + Truman Show

The Truman Show?


Kind of a weird day for my portfolio. I started off the day substantially lower. It was looking like my fourth straight losing day (after being up 17 out of 20 sessions) and my cumulative loss was about 3%. Then things turned around and I actually ended up almost 50 basis points.  On a dollar basis (with my multiplier) I had 6 stocks make more than $1,000 for me driving my overall gain of $9,500. KLICLMNSRIOMATVIAVG and FGL.

I did read Seth Klarman's annual letter to shareholders recently (Seth Klarman 2013 Letter to Investors). As my regular readers know, I am a big Klarman fan. I read and re-read his book Margin Of Safety. I would place it on my list of five books any serious investor should read.  While people can read the letter at their leisure, he is pretty bearish on the market. He is 40% cash and states that the Central Bankers have created this false reality world like in the movie, The Truman Show.  It is entertaining and thought provoking reading.

40% would be very high for me in a cash position. My thought after reading the letter is that I will move a bit to the sideline. Not taking any new sizable positions. Looking to exit smoothly a few discretionary positions.  At the end, that would put me between 25 to 30% cash. At the same time, I will think about more defensive names for MFI tranches.

So nothing drastic, but on the margin batten down a few hatches.  I kicked around briefly the idea of selling INTC, but that has been a core position for so long.

Hey, remember my blog "MFI DiaryCall Me Maybe?"  I was really right on that one. They had great earrings after the bell, and if I had bought them in my November MFI tranche I would be up 78%!

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