Monday, June 29, 2009

Taxing Decision

I neglected to mention over the weekend that there were two new stocks in the mechanical top 30 screen: MTXX and JTX. I find both of these to be rather interesting. I did own MTXX earlier this year, but sold it prematurely (thankfully). Their problems are well-chronicled with their nasal spray being pulled off the market due to some people losing their sense of smell. Everyone is running around like their hair is on fire about MTXX right now... but their fear could be an opportunity. They have $4.20 a share in cash and trade 28% under book value. The question will be how much will their income drop? I ran my calc routine assuming the income drops in half:



mtxx
+ Operating Income After Depreciation 12.16
- Minority Interest - Income Account -
= Income for Calculation 12.16

Diluted Shares Outstanding 9.400

Share Price 5.50
+ Market Cap Calc 51.70
+ Preferred Capital -
+ Debt in Current Liabilities -
+ Long-Term Debt -

Cash and Short-Term Investments 40.02
- Excess Cash 40.02
= Enterprise Value 11.69






+ Property Plant and Equipment - Net 4.13
+ Receivables 16.12
+ Inventories 7.74
+ Other Current Assests 3.67
+ Working Cash -
- Accounts Payable 3.01
- Current Liabilities - Other 12.47
= Invested Capital 16.19
Earnings Yield 104%
ROIC 75%

I didn't pull the trigger today on MTXX, but I am intrigued. If there is another sell-off, I might take a flier around $5.20. We'll see.

JTX is a stock I know well. I have owned them twice as an MFI stock in the past, and it wasn't exactly a rewarding experience. However, I do wonder if they have hit bottom. They have a brand new CEO and the stock popped about 40% when they hired the new guy (or was it because the old guy left?). The stock settled back down after a so-so earnings report. They have said they are going to look at making some major changes, might be a chance to get in on ground floor... I still think this franchise can get back to being a $20 stock under good managment... heck everyone has to do taxes, even with our new president. So I did buy-in today at $5.54, looks like a good entry price. My one concern is they have more debt than I'd like. Here's the calc worksheet for JTX:



jtx
+ Operating Income After Depreciation 57.47
- Minority Interest - Income Account -
= Income for Calculation 57.47

Diluted Shares Outstanding 28.570

Share Price 6.01
+ Market Cap Calc 171.71
+ Preferred Capital -
+ Debt in Current Liabilities -
+ Long-Term Debt 232.00

Cash and Short-Term Investments 0.31
- Excess Cash 0.31
= Enterprise Value 403.40






+ Property Plant and Equipment - Net 27.69
+ Receivables 30.84
+ Inventories -
+ Other Current Assests 19.80
+ Working Cash -
- Accounts Payable 33.69
- Current Liabilities - Other 10.37
= Invested Capital 34.26
Earnings Yield 14%
ROIC 168%

2 comments:

Homer315 said...

Marsh, I probably come across as stupid in these comments, but I checked five different times, and can't match your TTM operating income for JTX. The numbers from google finance and Yahoo finance show operating income for the last four quarters as +71.83, +38.42, (32.98), (31.46). That gives me 45.81 for the TTM op income. You have 57.47. Any idea why the discrepancy?

Homer315 said...

I come closer (+59.01) if I add back the depreciation, but that's not what your spreadsheet does, is it? The line item is called op income after depreciation...