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1.18Now that makes me wonder, why is it going up so fast? (and secondarily, will it crash back?). Note the 579,000 shares against the average of 42K. I have a theory that when stocks pass $10 that amount is a threshhold for many mutual funds and that they are allowed to buy then, so stocks can zip up pretty quick when they pass that barrier. Not sure if it is true, but it feels true. Of course it helps that the recently increased guidance to $1.20 to $1.29 per share.
The other thing I find interesting is their path. They were a otc stock (like CHCG.OB) until late May and as recently as March were trading under a $1 (like my CHCG.OB). They then had a reverse 1:3 split and were able to move off the otc to the AMEX. I do think the publicity or halo of being on the AMEX (or away from otc) was also a driver in their price going up. You'll note the price has shot from $7 to over $11 since being listed:
PRICES
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume | Adj Close* |
| 5-Jun-09 | 8.40 | 9.97 | 8.25 | 9.95 | 391,000 | 9.95 |
| 4-Jun-09 | 8.20 | 8.38 | 7.73 | 8.19 | 72,900 | 8.19 |
| 3-Jun-09 | 8.25 | 8.30 | 8.10 | 8.15 | 41,000 | 8.15 |
| 2-Jun-09 | 8.36 | 8.36 | 8.02 | 8.24 | 82,700 | 8.24 |
| 1-Jun-09 | 8.35 | 8.35 | 7.73 | 8.20 | 103,400 | 8.20 |
| 29-May-09 | 7.43 | 8.45 | 7.18 | 7.90 | 181,200 | 7.90 |
| 28-May-09 | 7.00 | 7.49 | 7.00 | 7.30 | 88,500 | 7.30 |
| 27-May-09 | 6.75 | 7.25 | 6.75 | 7.00 | 116,100 | 7.00 |
What would happen if CHCG got off the otc? Can it happen? I know they planned it at one time. Hmmm, you have to have a market cap of at least $75m and a share price of at least $3. Have a ways to go without a reverse split as we closed at $1.15 today. The market cap is about $60m... so not far. This makes me angry every time I look, their operating income is $34m. I should just sell everything I have and invest it in CHCG! If I owned the company, I would be able to pay myself back in under 2 years. Hmmm. Maybe I'll buy more tomorrow.
Finally, TC had some interesting news after the bell (Thompson Creek announces changes to 2009 operating plans). Basically Molybdenum prices are improving and they are going to increase production.
Let us do the math:
- they plan on increasing production by 2 million tons
- Production costs are about 50 cents lower per ton than originally estimated.
- They don't say how much prices will be up, but assume $1.50.
Posts
3 comments:
Marsh, a couple of things. First, has anyone else said to you that they have trouble viewing your charts? I can't see them on either my work or my home computer. Not sure why. I did see the one where you compared how your portfolio has done, against the benchmark. It's the one that you hadn't posted in a long time because you were down big. The individual stock charts though, I can't see at all.
The second thing is, I mentioned Value Investors Club previously. If you haven't already, you might think of getting a guest membership. It's free, and lets you view ideas after they've been posted for 45 days to VIC members. I have to admit that I've gotten some very nice stock ideas from the site (though there's also been some clunkers of course). My best success story is one of my most recent. There was a write up of KIRK (Kirkland's) in the last part of last year. I liked the idea a lot, and ended up buying in at $2.45. Last week it traded over $9.50, and I'm still holding onto it, because I think it will reach the mid teens by the end of the year.
Anyway, I bring this up because you mentioned the fact that a stock getting listed can really help. There is a very recent write up of CMFO (China Marine Food Group). It's a China-based company, so I know you'd be hot to trot for it. They have an interesting business (though it's not to my taste) but if you read the write up, it's a pretty compelling story. The write up occurred back on 4/5/09, when the stock was at 1.60. It's now trading at $3.90, and I bought it on May 22 at $3.15. Not every stock written up shoots up right away of course -- sometimes you can read the write up when the stock price is basically the same it was when first posted on VIC, sometimes higher, sometimes lower. Anyway, even though CMFO has more than doubled since the posting, if you read the write up and valuation, there's a good argument that the stock price has a ways to go yet. More relevant to this long discussion, however, is that the company, which is currently trading OTC, met the minimum daily trading limits required for listing. The board approved the request to apply for listing on the Amex, and the company has already submitted the application. Since then, the price has moved even higher, so it's way above the required minimum cap now. I asked the investor relations folks last week what the status was on the AMEX listing, and they told me that the process requires 6-8 weeks, and they expect to hear back the early to mid part of July. I figure that once CMFO gets on AMEX, there will be a host of new potential purchasers, and I expect that to be a pretty good catalyst for a stock that is still pretty darn undervalued.
Just my $0.02.
Albert. Thanks for the comments. I did look at vic this morning, I like the idea of "paying" by contributing an idea. I have more than a few, so will likely draft something and join the club.
MG
Hmmm, well, good luck. I don't think it's all the easy to become a member, but please let me know if you ultimately get accepted.
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