Friday, June 26, 2009

Mechanical Update - Unbelievable!

My mechanical portfolio is actually starting to simulate the returns as promised in the book. The top 30 portfolio is up all-in-all by 13.8% and is beating the benchmark by a whopping 22.6 points! The open stocks are doing even better, up 30.4% and beating the benchmark by over 28%. I don't know about you, but I am starting to be convinced.

Not to brag, but here is the summary:


Mech top 30: +13.8% vs S&P Everything: -8.8% Mech 30 +22.6 points
Mech top 50: +8.4% vs S&P Everything -12.0% Mech 50 up 20.4 points

Then for open stocks

Mech top 30: +30.4% vs S&P Open: +1.9% Mech 30 +28.5 points
Mech top 50: +23.8% vs S&P Open -2.0% Mech 50 up 25.8 points

Even my monthly tacking portfolios have the open stocks up 9.9% vs IWV -2.6% for a 12.5 point lead.

I think it is working. Just being mechanical/random. Here is top 50 so far:

Symbol Date Original Current Dividend S&P O S&P D Stock Chg S&P Chg Diff
MFLO 1/26/08 12.42 22.01 - 133.04 1.31 77.2% -0.4% 77.6%
AIRV 2/2/08 5.22 5.09 - 139.58 2.72 -2.5% -38.7% 36.2%
CDNS 2/2/08 10.61 3.78 - 139.58 2.72 -64.4% -38.7% -25.7%
GHM 2/2/08 17.01 9.96 0.08 139.58 2.72 -41.0% -38.7% -2.3%
LIVE 2/2/08 5.25 1.50 - 139.58 2.72 -71.4% -38.7% -32.7%
VSEC 2/2/08 28.07 28.76 0.09 139.58 2.72 2.8% -38.7% 41.5%
CJR 2/13/08 21.81 11.10 0.48 136.37 2.72 -46.9% -37.3% -9.6%
FORM 2/13/08 20.09 16.06 - 136.37 2.72 -20.1% -37.3% 17.3%
MMS 2/13/08 37.32 37.59 0.42 136.37 2.72 1.8% -37.3% 39.2%
KLAC 2/16/08 40.75 19.70 0.60 135.14 2.72 -50.2% -36.7% -13.8%
NVTL 2/16/08 13.35 6.34 - 135.14 2.72 -52.5% -36.7% -15.8%
GSB 2/23/08 3.53 0.56 - 135.62 2.72 -84.1% -40.9% -43.2%
TPX 2/23/08 16.67 6.46 0.24 135.62 2.72 -59.8% -40.9% -18.9%
VSEA 2/23/08 32.87 18.90 - 135.62 2.72 -42.5% -40.9% -1.6%
BOLT 3/1/08 17.39 6.43 - 133.82 2.72 -63.0% -42.7% -20.3%
CHRD 3/1/08 5.78 2.14 - 133.82 2.72 -63.0% -42.7% -20.3%
MRX 3/1/08 20.47 11.28 0.12 133.82 2.72 -44.3% -42.7% -1.6%
ELOS 3/1/08 16.19 5.22 - 133.82 2.72 -67.8% -42.7% -25.0%
AMSWA 3/12/08 5.76 3.17 0.36 131.36 2.08 -38.7% -46.0% 7.2%
CRDN 3/12/08 29.28 14.87 - 131.36 2.08 -49.2% -46.0% -3.3%
CROX 3/12/08 20.59 1.19 - 131.36 2.08 -94.2% -46.0% -48.3%
DEPO 3/12/08 2.97 2.12 - 131.36 2.08 -28.6% -46.0% 17.3%
EME 3/12/08 22.24 14.31 - 131.36 2.08 -35.7% -46.0% 10.3%
ELNK 3/12/08 7.34 6.13 - 131.36 2.08 -16.5% -46.0% 29.5%
IGC 3/12/08 3.70 0.44 - 131.36 2.08 -88.1% -46.0% -42.2%
OMPI 3/12/08 9.55 4.05 - 131.36 2.08 -57.6% -46.0% -11.6%
SNVNF.PK 3/12/08 1.18 0.52 - 131.36 2.08 -56.3% -46.0% -10.3%
TBI 3/12/08 12.42 6.17 - 131.36 2.08 -50.3% -46.0% -4.4%
ALLI 3/22/08 4.08 4.43 - 132.08 2.08 8.6% -36.4% 45.0%
FIX 3/22/08 12.93 10.52 0.14 132.08 2.08 -17.6% -36.4% 18.8%
DWCH 3/22/08 3.18 1.18 - 132.08 2.08 -62.9% -36.4% -26.5%
TRA 3/22/08 35.85 28.25 0.40 132.08 2.08 -20.1% -36.4% 16.3%
NTRI 4/6/08 14.91 14.25 0.70 136.89 2.08 0.3% -34.9% 35.1%
BID 4/6/08 26.57 10.00 0.60 136.89 2.08 -60.1% -34.9% -25.2%
FDRY 4/11/08 11.57 16.66 - 133.38 2.08 44.0% -33.2% 77.1%
MWW 4/11/08 22.23 11.89 - 133.38 2.08 -46.5% -33.2% -13.4%
CHE 4/19/08 40.84 41.47 0.18 138.48 2.08 2.0% -35.6% 37.6%
SLP 4/19/08 1.71 1.19 - 138.48 2.08 -30.4% -35.6% 5.2%
LQDT 4/26/08 8.43 8.94 - 139.60 2.64 6.0% -36.0% 42.1%
NHWK 4/26/08 7.28 2.99 - 139.60 2.64 -58.9% -36.0% -22.9%
QCOR 5/2/08 4.38 4.49 - 141.51 2.64 2.5% -36.0% 38.5%
WINS 5/2/08 4.86 6.24 - 141.51 2.08 28.4% -34.7% 63.1%
SILC 5/2/08 8.80 6.73 - 141.51 2.64 -23.5% -36.0% 12.5%
SYX 5/2/08 16.50 16.93 - 141.51 2.64 2.6% -36.0% 38.6%
ASF 5/9/08 27.44 22.67 0.39 138.90 2.64 -16.0% -34.0% 18.0%
SWIR 5/9/08 17.73 6.08 - 138.90 2.64 -65.7% -34.0% -31.7%
SNCR 5/9/08 12.79 11.31 - 138.90 2.64 -11.6% -34.0% 22.4%
BR 5/16/08 21.68 17.39 0.19 142.66 2.64 -18.9% -35.8% 16.8%
PROJ 5/16/08 9.00 4.08 - 142.66 2.64 -54.7% -35.8% -18.9%
MD 5/16/08 55.75 41.67 - 142.66 2.64 -25.3% -35.8% 10.5%
NSR 5/25/08 22.27 19.59 - 137.64 2.64 -12.0% -33.4% 21.4%
SPSS 5/28/08 38.89 33.37 - 139.30 2.64 -14.2% -31.7% 17.5%
CSKI 5/31/08 13.30 14.74 - 140.35 2.64 10.8% -32.2% 43.0%
SIGM 5/31/08 18.50 15.46 - 140.35 2.64 -16.4% -32.2% 15.8%
ZINC 6/6/08 12.78 8.03 - 136.29 2.64 -37.2% -28.7% -8.5%
DYII 6/15/08 7.00 3.37 - 136.15 2.64 -51.8% -28.2% -23.6%
ESIC 6/21/08 3.44 1.58 - 131.58 2.64 -54.1% -28.0% -26.0%
NCMI 6/21/08 12.59 13.44 0.32 131.58 2.64 9.3% -28.0% 37.3%
BIDZ 6/28/08 8.85 2.96 - 127.53 2.64 -66.6% -25.9% -40.6%
RMCF 6/28/08 9.63 7.76 0.20 127.53 2.64 -17.3% -25.9% 8.6%
APKT 7/5/08 4.62 9.96 - 126.31 2.49 115.6% -25.3% 140.9%
HANS 7/5/08 25.25 31.77 - 126.31 2.49 25.8% -25.3% 51.1%
MTW 7/5/08 27.58 5.29 0.08 126.31 2.49 -80.5% -25.3% -55.2%
NVDA 7/5/08 12.49 11.57 - 126.31 2.49 -7.4% -25.3% 18.0%
BA 7/12/08 63.28 41.88 1.22 123.84 2.49 -31.9% -23.8% -8.1%
CHH 7/12/08 23.24 26.29 0.37 123.84 2.49 14.7% -23.8% 38.5%
MSFT 7/20/08 25.86 23.35 0.26 125.98 2.49 -8.7% -25.1% 16.4%
VCLK 7/20/08 10.20 11.72 - 125.98 2.49 14.9% -25.1% 40.0%
SHFK.PK 7/26/08 27.50 15.10 - 125.48 2.49 -45.1% -24.8% -20.3%
IBAS 7/26/08 3.90 1.10 - 125.48 2.49 -71.8% -24.8% -47.0%
CF 8/8/08 134.65 76.19 0.20 129.37 2.49 -43.3% -27.1% -16.2%
ANF 8/8/08 50.38 26.16 0.35 129.37 2.49 -47.4% -27.1% -20.3%
AYSI.OB 8/8/08 1.77 0.38 - 129.37 2.49 -78.8% -27.1% -51.7%
DEIX 8/8/08 1.70 0.16 - 129.37 2.49 -90.6% -27.1% -63.5%
PRFT 8/8/08 7.36 6.84 - 129.37 2.49 -7.1% -27.1% 20.0%
TEX 8/8/08 47.22 12.40 - 129.37 2.49 -73.7% -27.1% -46.7%
DBTK 8/8/08 11.20 8.90 - 129.37 2.49 -20.5% -27.1% 6.6%
GRMN 8/8/08 37.09 23.64 0.38 129.37 2.49 -35.3% -27.1% -8.2%
KHD 8/8/08 25.26 8.28 - 129.37 2.49 -67.2% -27.1% -40.1%
LOOP 8/8/08 10.50 7.89 - 129.37 2.49 -24.9% -27.1% 2.2%
LO 8/8/08 68.41 67.76 1.84 129.37 2.49 1.7% -27.1% 28.8%
MPAA 8/8/08 6.60 4.00 - 129.37 2.49 -39.4% -27.1% -12.3%
STX 8/8/08 15.00 10.27 0.12 129.37 2.49 -30.7% -27.1% -3.6%
BARE 8/26/08 12.81 8.35 - 127.39 2.49 -34.8% -26.0% -8.9%
EGN 8/26/08 53.56 40.30 0.25 127.39 2.49 -24.3% -26.0% 1.7%
PRM 8/26/08 3.02 1.80 0.07 127.39 2.49 -38.1% -26.0% -12.1%
LOV 8/26/08 4.26 2.50 - 127.39 2.49 -41.3% -26.0% -15.4%
SCMP 9/2/08 9.50 6.60 - 128.79 2.49 -30.5% -26.8% -3.8%
EGMI.OB 9/6/08 0.69 1.29 - 124.42 2.49 87.0% -24.2% 111.1%
MLNX 9/6/08 10.61 12.45 - 124.42 2.49 17.3% -24.2% 41.5%
WFR 9/15/08 34.34 17.96 - 126.09 2.49 -47.7% -25.2% -22.5%
KBR 9/15/08 19.17 18.66 0.05 126.09 2.49 -2.4% -25.2% 22.8%
DELL 9/22/08 16.63 13.68 - 124.12 2.49 -17.7% -24.0% 6.3%
NGA 9/22/08 6.50 6.39 - 124.12 2.49 -1.7% -24.0% 22.3%
TTWO 9/22/08 16.57 9.50 - 124.12 2.49 -42.7% -24.0% -18.7%
FWLT 10/6/08 31.91 23.77 - 110.34 1.80 -25.5% -15.1% -10.4%
MOS 10/6/08 40.88 43.35 0.05 110.34 1.80 6.2% -15.1% 21.3%
WRLS 10/6/08 1.82 2.06 - 110.34 1.80 13.2% -15.1% 28.3%
TSCM 10/6/08 5.09 2.16 0.03 110.34 1.80 -57.1% -15.1% -41.9%
CTCM 10/10/08 9.02 12.40 - 88.50 1.80 37.5% 5.8% 31.7%
DAR 10/10/08 7.55 6.80 - 88.50 1.80 -9.9% 5.8% -15.7%
NOV 10/10/08 23.42 33.10 - 88.50 1.80 41.3% 5.8% 35.5%
PRGX 10/10/08 4.69 2.55 - 88.50 1.80 -45.6% 5.8% -51.4%
PCP 10/10/08 54.15 73.17 0.04 88.50 1.80 35.2% 5.8% 29.4%
ALDN 10/10/08 9.64 11.49 - 88.50 1.80 19.2% 5.8% 13.4%
GPX 10/17/08 5.03 6.71 - 93.21 1.80 33.4% 0.5% 32.9%
BKE 10/31/08 26.34 31.47 0.20 96.83 1.80 20.2% -3.3% 23.5%
CYNO 10/31/08 8.76 7.60 - 96.83 1.80 -13.2% -3.3% -9.9%
DHX 10/31/08 4.06 4.90 - 96.83 1.80 20.7% -3.3% 24.0%
GES 10/31/08 21.77 26.08 0.10 96.83 1.80 20.3% -3.3% 23.6%
HWAY 10/31/08 10.10 14.50 - 96.83 1.80 43.6% -3.3% 46.9%
WBC 10/31/08 18.37 18.09 0.07 96.83 1.80 -1.1% -3.3% 2.2%
GTLS 11/7/08 11.62 19.51 - 93.86 1.80 67.9% -0.2% 68.1%
CDII 11/7/08 2.77 1.43 - 93.86 1.80 -48.4% -0.2% -48.1%
IPHS 11/7/08 19.97 16.23 0.17 93.86 1.80 -17.9% -0.2% -17.6%
MSPD 11/7/08 1.31 2.30 - 93.86 1.80 75.6% -0.2% 75.8%
QLGC 11/7/08 11.49 12.55 - 93.86 1.80 9.2% -0.2% 9.5%
SCHN 11/7/08 27.07 61.36 - 93.86 1.80 126.7% -0.2% 126.9%
SVR 11/7/08 8.92 16.66 - 93.86 1.80 86.8% -0.2% 87.0%
TDC 11/7/08 14.48 23.06 - 93.86 1.80 59.3% -0.2% 59.5%
EBAY 10/31/08 14.19 17.35 - 96.83 1.80 22.3% -3.3% 25.6%
TKTM 11/14/08 5.87 6.51 - 86.62 1.80 10.9% 8.1% 2.8%
ERES 11/14/08 4.65 6.41 - 86.62 1.80 37.8% 8.1% 29.7%
FEED 11/14/08 1.76 6.00 - 86.62 1.80 240.9% 8.1% 232.8%
HCKT 11/14/08 2.57 2.31 - 86.62 1.80 -10.1% 8.1% -18.2%
FLR 11/14/08 35.73 51.83 0.13 86.62 1.80 45.4% 8.1% 37.3%
GTI 11/14/08 4.79 11.51 - 86.62 1.80 140.3% 8.1% 132.2%
INTX 11/14/08 4.10 4.22 - 86.62 1.80 2.9% 8.1% -5.2%
MSO 11/14/08 3.91 3.20 - 86.62 1.80 -18.2% 8.1% -26.3%
JCG 11/14/08 11.22 26.25 - 86.62 1.80 134.0% 8.1% 125.9%
MDR 11/14/08 7.80 20.55 - 86.62 1.80 163.5% 8.1% 155.4%
ABAT 11/21/08 1.34 4.06 - 79.52 1.80 203.0% 17.8% 185.2%
ADSK 11/21/08 14.37 19.75 - 79.52 1.80 37.4% 17.8% 19.7%
GIGM 11/21/08 3.79 5.81 - 79.52 1.80 53.3% 17.8% 35.5%
OPTV 11/21/08 0.94 1.38 - 79.52 1.80 46.8% 17.8% 29.1%
PRO 11/21/08 4.14 8.87 - 79.52 1.80 114.3% 17.8% 96.5%
WTSLA 11/21/08 2.20 3.20 - 79.52 1.80 45.5% 17.8% 27.7%
AIRT 11/28/08 6.08 8.52 - 90.09 1.80 40.1% 3.9% 36.2%
BSQR 11/28/08 2.48 2.58 - 90.09 1.80 4.0% 3.9% 0.1%
CKSW 11/28/08 2.20 6.07 - 90.09 1.80 175.9% 3.9% 172.0%
IILG 11/28/08 5.30 9.49 - 90.09 1.80 79.1% 3.9% 75.1%
PBSO.PK 11/28/08 0.39 0.35 - 90.09 1.80 -10.3% 3.9% -14.2%
DIVX 12/8/08 4.37 5.99 - 87.93 1.80 37.1% 6.5% 30.6%
GSIT 12/8/08 2.94 3.88 - 87.93 1.80 32.0% 6.5% 25.5%
HGRD 12/8/08 1.35 4.40 - 87.93 1.80 225.9% 6.5% 219.4%
ISIL 12/8/08 7.92 12.90 0.12 87.93 1.80 64.4% 6.5% 57.9%
MAXY 12/8/08 5.80 7.30 - 87.93 1.80 25.9% 6.5% 19.4%
PVSW 12/8/08 3.80 6.08 - 87.93 1.80 60.0% 6.5% 53.5%
DDMX 12/14/08 11.13 15.44 - 88.99 1.80 38.7% 5.2% 33.5%
PSOF 12/14/08 2.74 4.26 - 88.99 1.80 55.5% 5.2% 50.3%
ITWO 12/29/08 5.61 12.23 - 87.16 1.08 118.0% 6.6% 111.4%
JOYG 12/29/08 21.95 36.55 - 87.16 1.08 66.5% 6.6% 59.9%
TRMS 12/29/08 1.03 2.06 - 87.16 1.08 100.0% 6.6% 93.4%
CTGX 1/5/09 3.18 6.87 - 92.96 1.08 116.0% 0.0% 116.1%
PMD 1/5/09 6.44 6.77 - 92.96 1.08 5.1% 0.0% 5.2%
HPY 1/26/09 8.54 9.13 - 83.11 1.08 6.9% 11.8% -4.9%
HLIT 1/31/09 5.15 6.05 - 82.83 1.08 17.5% 12.2% 5.3%
HGT 1/31/09 13.06 14.25 - 82.83 1.08 9.1% 12.2% -3.1%
CNU 2/9/09 1.96 2.49 - 86.98 1.08 27.0% 6.8% 20.2%
SJT 2/9/09 19.05 14.32 - 86.98 1.08 -24.8% 6.8% -31.7%
SGU 2/9/09 2.55 3.62 0.07 86.98 1.08 44.6% 6.8% 37.8%
TC 2/9/09 4.33 10.44 - 86.98 1.08 141.1% 6.8% 134.3%
BITI 2/16/09 3.72 3.67 - 82.76 1.08 -1.3% 12.3% -13.6%
FORR 2/16/09 17.56 24.48 - 82.76 1.08 39.4% 12.3% 27.1%
ZYXI.OB 2/16/09 1.20 0.84 - 82.76 1.08 -30.0% 12.3% -42.3%
FRD 2/23/09 4.95 6.44 - 77.42 1.08 30.1% 20.0% 10.1%
SOLR 2/23/09 4.22 5.73 - 77.42 1.08 35.8% 20.0% 15.8%
MTXX 2/23/09 17.90 5.77 - 77.42 1.08 -67.8% 20.0% -87.8%
TYPE 2/23/09 3.02 7.21 - 77.42 1.08 138.7% 20.0% 118.7%
PTIE 2/23/09 5.41 5.61 - 77.42 1.08 3.7% 20.0% -16.3%
PDO 2/23/09 3.19 5.56 - 77.42 1.08 74.3% 20.0% 54.3%
SAPE 2/23/09 3.38 6.10 - 77.42 1.08 80.5% 20.0% 60.5%
VDSI 2/23/09 5.25 7.32 - 77.42 1.08 39.4% 20.0% 19.4%
IGTE 2/23/09 2.99 6.61 - 77.42 1.08 121.1% 20.0% 101.1%
DECK 3/2/09 41.27 73.90 - 73.93 1.08 79.1% 25.7% 53.4%
KTII 3/2/09 55.48 82.55 - 73.93 1.08 48.8% 25.7% 23.1%
INT 3/2/09 29.01 39.81 - 73.93 1.08 37.2% 25.7% 11.5%
ICAD 3/2/09 0.90 1.33 - 77.42 1.08 47.8% 20.0% 27.8%
EXBD 3/9/09 12.96 20.67 - 68.92 1.08 59.5% 34.8% 24.7%
DISH 3/9/09 9.27 15.81 - 68.92 1.08 70.6% 34.8% 35.7%
QLTI 3/9/09 1.41 2.16 - 68.92 1.08 53.2% 34.8% 18.4%
SRDX 3/9/09 16.87 23.26 - 68.92 1.08 37.9% 34.8% 3.1%
INFI 4/20/09 5.83 6.05 - 87.08 0.52 3.8% 6.1% -2.3%
CRAY 5/3/09 3.98 7.86 - 87.89 0.52 97.5% 5.1% 92.4%
TWX 5/3/09 22.84 24.95 - 87.89 0.52 9.2% 5.1% 4.2%
RST 5/3/09 29.83 27.20 - 87.89 0.52 -8.8% 5.1% -13.9%
ULCM.PK 5/3/09 2.18 1.91 - 87.89 0.52 -12.4% 5.1% -17.5%
AAV 5/18/09 3.41 4.36 - 88.71 0.52 27.9% 4.1% 23.7%
AMED 6/1/09 30.43 33.20 - 92.53 0.52 9.1% -0.2% 9.3%
UTA 6/1/09 7.90 11.50 - 92.53 0.52 45.6% -0.2% 45.8%
PFE 6/7/09 14.51 15.19 - 94.55 0.52 4.7% -2.3% 7.0%
VM 6/7/09 4.55 4.38 - 94.55 0.52 -3.7% -2.3% -1.4%
ONTY 6/14/09 2.60 3.45 - 95.08 0.52 32.7% -2.9% 35.6%
BPI 6/21/09 16.74 16.85 - 92.04 - 0.7% -0.2% 0.9%
GME 6/21/09 22.95 22.17 - 92.04 - -3.4% -0.2% -3.2%
















Totals 8.4% -12.0% 20.4%
57.4% of stocks beat the S&P 500 Benchmark
Closed -30.8% -37.6% 6.8%
S&P C

91.84

Open 23.8% -2.0% 25.8%

6 comments:

Homer315 said...

Marsh, good news on the mechanical portfolios. I searched through the last three months of posts looking for the answer to this question but couldn't find it. It's my understanding that you add a stock to your mechanical portfolio if it is new to the top 30 or top 50 list in that it hasn't been on either of those lists in the past year, right? How long do you keep it in the portfolio? If I'm not mistaken for instance, MFLO shows up in your list for a date of 1/26/08. AIRV shows up as 2/2/08. Are those positions "closed" so to speak, and you keep displaying them for historical informational purposes, or are you still using their prices and returns in your calculations?

Another question - do you worry about catching some of these stocks on their way down if you begin using your mechanical method in your real money portfolio?

Homer315 said...

Meh, I read the lates post again -- it has to be that you are just showing the closed positions for historical information purposes, and they're not included in your current tallies, otherwise you wouldn't call them "closed" would you?

Marsh_Gerda said...

Stocks more than a year old are "closed" and frozen. In my spreadsheet, they are shaded a different color, but it doesn't come across in the blog.

MG

john said...

You continue to do nice work. Thanks for all the time that you have put into these studies and then sharing them.
How do you propose to buy 137 stocks if you do follow this approach? You would need to use approx. 20% for each stock. Of course the melt down in November and March may not happen again for a while. This would produce fewer stocks. You would need a big cash reserve to follow this when the stocks are being given away.

Regards,

John

Marsh_Gerda said...

John, if you followed the top 30 mechanical portfolio it would be 93 stocks over the past 18 months. I certainly realize that no one could actually follow this strategy to the letter... without large tansactional costs. I am trying to folow it with altercations, certain stocks that I think don't belong (such as BPI) I will not buy. I also think if the market is less volatile there will be fewer stocks coming up new on the lists.

john said...

Looks like you could remove 11 stinkers on Balance sheets concerns leaving 82 or so. Then filter if earnings look way below last year trailing? (your ideas) Maybe end up with 40 stocks per year and maybe less if we get into less volatile markets.
I think the Magic in the Mechanical portfolio is the speed the market processes information.
I hate to touch anything that looks this good. Of course we need another two years or so.

Regards,

John