Saturday, January 04, 2014

Weekend Update January 4th 2014

Weekend Update

Wow, is it cold outside!  -6 degrees Fahrenheit as I type this blog.  We got 5 or 6 inches of snow Thursday night.  The weatherman was almost enjoying it, I am sure their job is more interesting in January here than August.

Relatively, I am off to an ok start in the first two trading days. I am down 25 basis points overall while the R3K is off about 80 points.  I have been a bit active on the transaction front this week, selling ATHM (35.03), HIMX (14.12) and 1/3 of my GA (10.69).  As is often the case, I would have been better (so far) having not made those trades, though not by a lot.

Magic Formula Results

The 4 tranches so far this year are down 143 basis points.  The GA debacle hurt some.  Also NUS tumbled pretty sharply as the FTC announced they will be looking into dietary claims (Herbalife, Nu Skin Fall As FTC Eyes Weight-Loss Ads).  The MFI index was down 31 basis points, EGL was the big winner in first two trading days, up over 8%.

I will continue to trudge along with my tranches.  The countdown is on for my February 1st 2013 tranche, really no idea what I will buy as replacements.

2/1/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $450.60 $540.98 $8.75 22.0% 24.0%
GA $6.10 $10.93 $0.65 89.9% 24.0%
STRZA $16.06 $29.39 $0.00 83.0% 24.0%
CA $25.07 $33.11 $1.00 36.1% 24.0%
NUS $41.94 $132.41 $1.20 218.6% 24.0%
Totals 89.9% 24.0%
5/6/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
KLIC $11.40 $13.13 $0.00 15.2% 15.8%
CYOU $29.24 $31.46 $0.00 7.6% 15.8%
RDA $9.74 $17.88 $0.10 84.7% 15.8%
NVDA $13.85 $15.67 $0.24 14.8% 15.8%
CF $183.97 $232.08 $1.80 27.1% 15.8%
Totals 29.9% 15.8%
8/15/2013 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CF $187.26 $232.08 $1.00 24.5% 11.5%
FLR $66.06 $79.15 $0.32 20.3% 11.5%
AGX $15.60 $27.29 $0.75 79.7% 11.5%
KLIC $11.29 $13.13 $0.00 16.3% 11.5%
RPXC $15.92 $16.87 $0.00 6.0% 11.5%
Totals 29.4% 11.5%
11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $16.95 $0.00 -1.6% 2.5%
ATVI $17.71 $18.29 $0.00 3.3% 2.0%
GA $9.04 $10.93 $0.23 23.5% 2.0%
RPXC $17.04 $16.87 $0.00 -1.0% 2.0%
SYNA $48.01 $50.51 $0.00 5.2% 2.0%
Totals 5.9% 2.1%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment   25,000       25,000     25,000      25,000    100,000
Current Tranche 29.4% 5.9% 89.9% 29.9% 38.4%
Previous Tranche 14.1% 43.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.9%
MFI Overall Gain 47.5% 52.2% 89.9% 29.9% 54.9%
Current Balance   36,885       38,050     47,476      32,471    154,882
R3K Current Tranche 11.5% 36.7% 24.0% 15.8% 22.0%
R3K Overall Gain 36.2% 36.7% 24.0% 15.8% 28.2%
R3K Balance   34,044       34,170     31,012      28,947    128,173
Annualized IRR 32.3% 44.6% 100.2% 48.0% 56.3%

Dividend Results

My dividend portfolio is off to a decent start, down 11 basis points so far.  I do intend to add an MFI dividend component in 2014, just have not gotten around to it.  CSCO did go x dividend this week.  A couple of my others actually accelerated their dividends into the end of 2013 (such as CSQ).  While this is not a sexy portfolio, I suggest that in any balanced portfolio that dividends have a place and they give me great comfort in a falling market in their ability to buy more shares cheaper.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AOD       21,343            3.96             4.21        4,533.38 11.6% 18.6% -7.0%
BBEP         4,675          16.13           20.42        3,422.22 31.2% 10.0% 21.2%
CSCO         4,389          17.34           21.98        4,965.98 33.3% 38.0% -4.8%
CSQ         6,675            8.59           10.86      10,529.20 44.8% 48.3% -3.5%
INTC         3,754          22.25           25.78        4,490.84 21.2% 31.8% -10.6%
O             583          20.37           37.73        8,703.29 158.5% 108.1% 50.5%
OIBAX         4,082            4.98             6.06        7,808.22 59.9% 113.1% -53.2%
SBS         6,211            9.54           10.77                     -   12.9% 8.5% 4.4%
TC-PT         4,000          15.39           13.94        4,061.80 -2.8% 15.9% -18.7%
TGONF         7,000          10.27           10.00        1,317.50 -0.8% 11.7% -12.6%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open            49,832 23.0% 27.5% -4.5%
Closed 12.9% 10.3% 2.6%
Combined 14.4% 12.8% 1.6%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 17.6%
2013 Gain -0.1%

Discretionary Portfolio


As I mentioned in a previous blog, I have created an approach (very similar to my dividend approach) for tracking my discretionary purchases.  It is essentially a parallel purchase of the R3K whenever I buy a discretionary stock.

In the table below, open positions are pretty self explanatory.  Closed positions are only stocks bought 1/1/13 and forward as I did not have the energy to go through all my transactions. As in all my tables, the share counts are multiplied by a factor for privacy.

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
BAC-WTA         6,000       5.35                 6.90                   -   29.0% 16.4% 12.6%
CS         1,800     28.75               30.65                   -   6.6% 3.0% 3.6%
GNW         7,000       6.82               15.39                   -   125.7% 40.2% 85.5%
GTAT       21,000       5.23                 9.32                   -   78.1% 8.5% 69.6%
HIG-WT         1,650     21.24               26.90                   -   26.7% 11.8% 14.8%
KLIC         3,500     11.15               13.13                   -   17.8% 15.9% 1.9%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open                   -   55.4% 14.5% 40.9%
Closed 6.3% 3.2% 2.6%
Combined 17.9% 5.9% 11.7%

2 comments:

Karl Nelson said...

Marshall, Question if you don't mind. Why do you use IWV for comparison versus SPY? It seems to me they are the same. I looked thru a bunch of older posts, but gave up trying to find the answer. Thanks for your patience, Karl

Marsh_Gerda said...

Karl - iwv is the Russell 3000 and has more a mixture of small and large stocks. I felt that matched my approach better.