Tuesday, January 28, 2014

In NY On Tuesday ==> Not Feeling So Good

In the big Apple today.  Had to get up VERY early this morning.  I am usually a pretty healthy guy, but with the travel, the cold and sick kids, it appears to have caught up with me today.  I have all the classic symptoms.  And it sucks as I fly overseas tomorrow.  That just sin't going to be much fun - when you are all congested. Hopefully I can sleep ok.  I just went through my medicine bag and it looks like the best I have is some basic Bayer aspirin.  I have some Tylenol PM, but I have been taking DayQuil all day and I do not want to take too many doses.

A couple of weird days in the markets.  On Monday, GTAT went up 6% as I think they had some tail winds from the ABC interview of Tim Cook.  That was enough to make the day flat for me.  Then AAPL dove today (looks like I will buy for Feb tranche!) and at first GTAT dove to, but then people woke up after their first cup of java and realized that GTAT is not YET a material supplier to AAPL.  KLIC had a stunning day today (Kulicke & Soffa Reports First Quarter 2014 Results) up 11%. Post their earnings call, I am extremely bullish on KLIC. So I ended up about 1% today.

I did made one move that I may regret. I bought a very large hedge in TWM (10% of my total portfolio), which is a 2x short of IWM.  I am worried about the markets being too extended and wanted some downside protection.  Has not looked too smart so far as that was clearly the bull call. The position is off 1.25% so far. And for some reason, the futures look very good tomorrow, tonight.  But, even with this hedge, I was up 1% on the day overall.  I will keep it in place for a week or ten days, but no more.  These leveraged shorts have never worked well for me.

Good night.


Jeff Nelson said...

Marshall, I'm guessing that the fed will reduce QE another 10Bil tomorrow. In which case your TWM position should be safe.

I am seriously considering joining you in TWM tomorrow am pre-market.
Made some good $ in GTAT on your recommendation and I'm hoping to be able to rebuy.

Marsh_Gerda said...

You were very right!