Weekend Update - Getting "Lucky"?

Weekend Update - Go Colts!

Weird weekend here in New England. It is supposed to rain and get to 55 degrees.  Earlier this week we were in the negatives.  Have the Colts and Patriots playing tonight.  Kind of a clash for me, raised in Indiana and now living in New England.  But not a tough call,  Go Colts!

My portfolio this year really feels like a drunken sailor taking random small steps in various directions.  In all I am up, but it feels more random rather than a superior portfolio.  Check out the table below showing my daily changes:

Date	Change
01/02/14	-0.4%
01/03/14	0.1%
01/06/14	-0.3%
01/07/14	1.0%
01/08/14	0.5%
01/09/14	-0.2%
01/10/14	0.1%

MFI Update

The Magic Formula continues to be the brightest light in my portfolio.  For the year (all ten days) it is beating the R3K by over a point already and has spread it's lead from 28.2% to 29.36% since year end.

SYNA was one stock that had a nice week (up about 8%).  I figure they must have had something good at CES. AGX and CF were two other big winners.  AGX has just been a great pick.  I am now kicking myself for not doubling down on them in November (up 30% since then).  As you may recall, I was concerned that the upcoming quarter would just be so-so as they will be a bit in between major projects from what I read.  CF appears to have benefiting from a USDA report about fertilizer demand this spring.

2/1/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$450.60	$532.94	$8.75	20.2%	24.9%
GA	$6.10	$10.84	$0.65	88.4%	24.9%
STRZA	$16.06	$30.41	$0.00	89.4%	24.9%
CA	$25.07	$34.02	$1.00	39.7%	24.9%
NUS	$41.94	$137.68	$1.20	231.1%	24.9%
Totals				93.8%	24.9%
5/6/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
KLIC	$11.40	$12.60	$0.00	10.5%	16.6%
CYOU	$29.24	$31.51	$0.00	7.8%	16.6%
RDA	$9.74	$17.97	$0.10	85.6%	16.6%
NVDA	$13.85	$15.73	$0.24	15.3%	16.6%
CF	$183.97	$246.16	$1.80	34.8%	16.6%
Totals				30.8%	16.6%
8/15/2013	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CF	$187.26	$246.16	$1.00	32.0%	12.2%
FLR	$66.06	$78.90	$0.32	19.9%	12.2%
AGX	$15.60	$30.10	$0.75	97.8%	12.2%
KLIC	$11.29	$12.60	$0.00	11.6%	12.2%
RPXC	$15.92	$17.20	$0.00	8.0%	12.2%
Totals				33.9%	12.2%
11/15/13 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$17.22	$17.39	$0.00	1.0%	3.2%
ATVI	$17.71	$18.18	$0.00	2.7%	2.7%
GA	$9.04	$10.84	$0.23	22.5%	2.7%
RPXC	$17.04	$17.20	$0.00	0.9%	2.7%
SYNA	$48.01	$54.60	$0.00	13.7%	2.7%
Totals				8.2%	2.8%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	33.9%	8.2%	93.8%	30.8%	41.4%
Previous Tranche	14.1%	43.7%	0.0%	0.0%	11.9%
MFI Overall Gain	52.7%	55.5%	93.8%	30.8%	58.2%
Current Balance	38,170	38,869	48,440	32,698	158,177
R3K Current Tranche	12.2%	36.7%	24.9%	16.6%	22.6%
R3K Overall Gain	37.1%	36.7%	24.9%	16.6%	28.8%
R3K Balance	34,277	34,170	31,223	29,145	128,816
Annualized IRR	35.0%	46.4%	101.6%	47.9%	54.8%

Discretionary Portfolio

This portfolio also continues to carry a lot of water.  GNW was up 8% as they were upgraded by UBS.  Then one of my stealth stocks, CS, was up by 7%.  CS, you may recall, is Credit Suisse bank and I bought them as a play on things improving in Europe.  I was a bit nervous to go with some of the more exposed banks, so went with neutral Switzerland instead.  I had the additional tailwind of buying CS just as there were rumors about Swiss regulators requiring greater capital, which put them on sale.  CS is an extremely long term play for me, and is a relatively large position.  Not sexy, but should be a steady eddy.  Nothing wrong with that!

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
BAC-WTA	6,000	5.35	6.91	-	29.2%	17.2%	12.0%
CS	1,800	28.75	32.82	-	14.2%	3.7%	10.4%
GNW	7,000	6.82	16.66	-	144.3%	41.1%	103.2%
GTAT	21,000	5.23	9.32	-	78.1%	9.3%	68.8%
HIG-WT	1,650	21.24	27.30	-	28.5%	12.6%	15.9%
KLIC	3,500	11.15	12.60	-	13.0%	16.7%	-3.7%
Total Open				-	59.1%	15.3%	43.8%
Closed					6.5%	3.2%	3.3%
Combined					19.0%	6.1%	12.9%

Dividend Portfolio

Continues to be the underwhelming component of my overall portfolio. While a few of the stocks here have been crawling out of a hole (TGONF and INTC for instance), this portfolio continues to not find traction. I came very close to buying MET in this portfolio this week, actually typed the order in, but did not execute it. I also came very close to buying a CEF Muni bond fund (NQU).  The "good" news is that if I really feel this stocks are discounted, I am getting re-invested dividends at a discount.  One thing that has hurt this portfolio is the sale of the wrong stocks at the wrong time.

CIM: Sold at $2.91 in July,  Now at $3.41 if you include dividends.
SLCA: Sold at $23.05 in September, now at $32 with dividends.
IP: Sold at 45.98 in December (a bit more than a month ago). Now at 48.93.

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AOD	21,343	3.96	4.25	4,533.38	12.6%	19.4%	-6.8%
BBEP	4,675	16.13	20.37	3,422.22	30.9%	10.7%	20.1%
CSCO	4,389	17.34	22.22	4,965.98	34.7%	39.0%	-4.3%
CSQ	6,675	8.59	10.99	10,529.20	46.3%	49.3%	-3.0%
INTC	3,754	22.25	25.53	4,490.84	20.1%	32.7%	-12.7%
O	583	20.37	38.56	8,703.29	162.6%	109.5%	53.1%
OIBAX	4,082	4.98	6.08	7,808.22	60.3%	114.6%	-54.3%
SBS	6,211	9.54	10.15	-	6.4%	9.3%	-2.9%
TC-PT	4,000	15.39	12.81	4,061.80	-10.1%	16.7%	-26.9%
TGONF	7,000	10.27	10.09	1,317.50	0.1%	12.5%	-12.5%
Total Open				49,832	22.1%	28.4%	-6.3%
Closed					12.9%	10.3%	2.6%
Combined					14.2%	12.9%	1.3%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10					17.4%
2014 Gain					-0.5%

Otherwise, I continue to pretty much stand pat.  I have not entered any buy transactions now since December 11th, and I have sold quite a bit (not all my sales have been poorly timed, so far ATHM and HIMX were well-timed).  So I am flush with cash. Just hunting for the right opportunity.

Have a great weekend.