Saturday, October 23, 2010

One Stock Question

I was reading another blog and the blogger asked the question. "if you could only buy one stock for your portfolio and had to hold it for 10 years, what would it be?" I'd be curious in people's opinions here. His pick was Intel, which I agree is not a bad pick. It would certainly be in my top four. My picks:
  1. Berkshire-Hathaway: If I had to go with one stock, it makes sense to me to have one with a brilliant investor behind it. I am not even so worried about W.E.B.'s eventual retirement. BRK has some extremely capable people to take Buffet's place.
  2. Philip Morris International: I just think this is a "safe" stock with a nice dividend and good international growth opportunities.
  3. ACE: Not the hardware store, but the insurance company. I think they have a moat in that with the demise of AIG, they are one of the few truly global diversified insurance companies. They pay a nice dividend and have a great balance sheet.
  4. Intel: I think it would be very hard for any company to duplicate the engineering expertise, chip "brand" and economies of scale that INTC has built. They also pay a nice dividend and chips are going to be in everything we use over the next 10 years.
Top 200 List

Here is my ranking of top 200 stocks this weekend. Note SFUN is there by error. For some reason, the Fidelity database had the wrong # of shares for them so understated the market cap. The stock that is on my close watch list is AZN. They are #70 and pay anice dividend. They are not of the "official" list as they are an ADR.

Ticker Rank Date Stock Price Market Cap Earnings Yield ROIC Yahoo Yield
SNTA 1 10/23 3.67 148 83% 3076% 0.0%
BDSI 2 10/22 3.40 81 59% 1186% 0.0%
SNTS 3 10/23 3.23 198 28% 4769% 0.0%
ARIA 4 10/22 3.85 447 27% 1068% 0.0%
MAIL 5 10/23 6.36 62 34% 631% 21.0%
ELNK 6 10/23 8.75 953 31% 614% 6.9%
JGBO 7 10/23 7.10 106 358% 363% 0.0%
SFUN 8 10/23 79.91 270 24% 790% 0.0%
PDLI 9 10/23 5.58 968 20% 259717% 39.5%
IDCC 10 10/23 29.89 1,331 26% 475% 0.0%
UEPS 11 10/23 12.11 552 27% 426% 0.0%
CCME 12 10/22 15.15 543 23% 521% 0.0%
ESI 13 10/23 61.13 2,018 29% 306% 0.0%
BPI 14 10/22 14.13 858 25% 326% 0.0%
TNAV 15 10/23 4.88 200 78% 209% 0.0%
OSK 16 10/23 31.63 2,887 33% 215% 0.0%
AMED 17 10/22 24.94 713 30% 217% 0.0%
APOL 18 10/22 36.27 5,380 28% 227% 0.0%
SNDK 19 10/23 36.99 8,904 19% 399% 0.0%
TTT 20 10/23 7.76 235 30% 200% 29.8%
IPXL 21 10/23 21.14 1,385 31% 192% 0.0%
HRB 22 10/23 10.78 3,446 21% 272% 5.7%
GAME 23 10/23 6.59 1,880 15% 1050% 0.0%
CEU 24 10/22 5.23 164 20% 271% 0.0%
SOLR 25 10/23 8.40 1,223 15% 789% 0.0%
USMO 26 10/23 15.65 354 25% 189% 6.5%
AGX 27 10/22 9.51 130 15% 598% 0.0%
DVOX 28 10/23 5.62 53 28% 158% 0.0%
SMED 29 10/23 4.69 69 28% 157% 0.0%
UIS 30 10/23 30.78 1,334 23% 183% 0.0%
PRSC 31 10/23 17.23 258 16% 299% 0.0%
SCEI 32 10/23 7.30 140 22% 170% 0.0%
SNDA 33 10/23 39.85 2,435 16% 264% 0.0%
PPD 34 10/23 56.14 561 17% 204% 0.0%
CBP 35 10/22 2.19 83 33% 115% 0.0%
TRMS 36 10/23 2.69 60 21% 145% 0.0%
MRX 37 10/23 30.29 1,951 13% 806% 0.7%
CSKI 38 10/22 8.25 139 66% 110% 0.0%
UNTD 39 10/23 5.73 503 16% 202% 7.0%
CSGS 40 10/22 19.00 619 17% 178% 0.0%
DJCO 41 10/23 73.00 101 24% 121% 0.0%
AFAM 42 10/22 31.14 292 19% 154% 0.0%
ARO 43 10/22 25.05 2,369 20% 135% 0.0%
ASGR 44 10/22 14.90 132 16% 192% 1.5%
VPHM 45 10/23 15.36 1,382 15% 224% 0.0%
CECO 46 10/22 17.33 1,394 26% 109% 0.0%
CRME 47 10/22 5.69 351 12% 1681% 0.0%
LPS 48 10/23 26.60 2,525 15% 194% 1.5%
LO 49 10/23 84.05 12,794 13% 682% 5.0%
CNET 50 10/22 3.95 82 19% 123% 0.0%
IMMU 51 10/23 4.02 305 12% 784% 0.0%
FLL 52 10/23 3.45 62 22% 111% 0.0%
SUPG 53 10/23 2.35 143 16% 171% 0.0%
RTN 54 10/23 47.60 18,236 16% 152% 3.0%
CHOP 55 10/22 5.74 270 30% 92% 0.0%
KIRK 56 10/23 13.18 272 26% 95% 0.0%
CNXT 57 10/22 1.73 140 16% 144% 0.0%
NEWN 58 10/23 6.71 85 17% 123% 0.0%
GXDX 59 10/23 17.33 315 29% 90% 0.0%
GA 60 10/23 6.69 1,566 12% 484% 2.7%
CHKE 61 10/22 18.54 164 12% 592% 8.9%
CNU 62 10/22 4.44 274 15% 146% 0.0%
PETS 63 10/23 15.41 350 13% 209% 2.8%
COCO 64 10/22 4.62 410 43% 82% 0.0%
GTIV 65 10/23 23.32 714 17% 119% 0.0%
DLX 66 10/23 20.84 1,071 13% 214% 4.8%
PRM 67 10/23 3.67 163 13% 275% 7.8%
TNDM 68 10/23 14.57 488 21% 99% 0.0%
EME 69 10/23 26.62 1,809 17% 116% 0.0%
AZN 70 10/22 52.11 75,976 16% 121% 4.6%
JCG 71 10/23 31.68 2,088 15% 124% 0.0%
DGW 72 10/23 13.56 334 34% 76% 0.0%
MSFT 73 10/23 25.38 223,855 12% 317% 2.1%
TSRA 74 10/23 19.09 959 14% 152% 0.0%
ARRS 75 10/22 9.36 1,223 21% 90% 0.0%
LOV 76 10/23 3.08 63 12% 307% 0.0%
CYOU 77 10/23 32.40 1,720 12% 334% 0.0%
NEP 78 10/23 7.27 227 30% 76% 0.0%
CMTL 79 10/22 30.59 1,042 18% 97% 0.8%
CBPO 80 10/22 11.54 307 20% 91% 0.0%
GME 81 10/23 19.13 2,949 20% 88% 0.0%
EGY 82 10/23 5.73 327 28% 75% 0.0%
MFW 83 10/23 27.86 540 14% 138% 0.0%
LIWA 84 10/23 10.34 303 18% 93% 0.0%
RIMM 85 10/23 49.03 26,789 16% 109% 0.0%
MPAA 86 10/23 9.68 118 16% 105% 0.0%
RGR 87 10/23 15.47 302 19% 87% 2.3%
CNGL 88 10/22 3.15 116 32% 72% 0.0%
AHCI 89 10/22 2.64 120 18% 93% 0.0%
AOL 90 10/22 24.82 2,648 21% 81% 0.0%
LHCG 91 10/23 26.02 475 16% 106% 0.0%
SPNS 92 10/23 2.48 56 11% 654% 0.0%
CELM 93 10/22 5.15 107 25% 73% 0.0%
LINC 94 10/23 12.60 333 31% 69% 0.0%
GMAN 95 10/23 10.71 200 15% 104% 0.0%
UTA 96 10/23 5.22 94 55% 67% 0.0%
FSYS 97 10/23 39.52 698 18% 84% 0.0%
NOK 98 10/23 11.06 41,053 13% 170% 5.0%
MD 99 10/23 56.96 2,707 11% 681% 0.0%
RIMG 100 10/23 16.81 162 19% 80% 0.0%
MSN 101 10/23 1.92 52 39% 66% 0.0%
CHBT 102 10/22 12.63 309 22% 73% 0.0%
DRWI 103 10/23 8.26 303 18% 84% 0.0%
AOSL 104 10/22 11.35 251 24% 71% 0.0%
FWLT 105 10/23 24.03 3,073 15% 103% 0.0%
BR 106 10/22 21.30 2,931 12% 172% 2.7%
KLIC 107 10/23 6.01 451 26% 69% 0.0%
STRA 108 10/23 130.30 1,786 12% 203% 2.3%
NATH 109 10/23 15.85 90 14% 107% 0.0%
RST 110 10/23 21.96 466 12% 225% 0.0%
INTC 111 10/23 19.84 112,940 16% 88% 3.1%
DFZ 112 10/23 10.38 116 20% 73% 2.1%
JCOM 113 10/23 25.78 1,181 11% 902% 0.0%
DM 114 10/23 10.55 319 11% 338% 0.0%
MCK 115 10/23 61.08 16,614 13% 134% 1.0%
WDC 116 10/23 30.43 7,121 31% 64% 0.0%
BKE 117 10/22 28.59 1,345 16% 85% 2.8%
SPA 118 10/23 6.70 67 25% 67% 0.0%
TRLG 119 10/23 21.50 532 19% 74% 0.0%
CEPH 120 10/22 63.92 5,146 16% 88% 0.0%
NSR 121 10/23 25.21 1,921 12% 189% 0.0%
LMT 122 10/23 71.78 26,121 14% 96% 3.5%
STX 123 10/23 15.18 7,393 24% 65% 0.0%
STV 124 10/23 7.04 414 13% 123% 0.0%
BAX 125 10/22 51.07 29,978 11% 295% 2.3%
GRMN 126 10/23 31.92 6,387 16% 84% 7.3%
MANT 127 10/23 40.73 1,484 13% 116% 0.0%
CPY 128 10/22 25.41 186 14% 101% 3.2%
DV 129 10/23 45.15 3,264 13% 106% 0.5%
IOSP 130 10/23 16.93 423 22% 64% 0.0%
MHP 131 10/23 36.40 11,399 11% 245% 2.6%
CRI 132 10/22 25.33 1,514 16% 74% 0.0%
KBR 133 10/23 25.20 4,057 14% 87% 0.8%
BSPM 134 10/22 3.11 86 23% 61% 0.0%
HRS 135 10/23 43.80 5,637 15% 83% 2.1%
GPS 136 10/23 19.15 12,467 18% 68% 2.0%
MGIC 137 10/23 2.59 84 11% 274% 0.0%
PSDV 138 10/23 5.60 108 10% 21142% 0.0%
TPI 139 10/23 3.47 107 18% 66% 1.5%
CA 140 10/22 21.76 11,119 11% 294% 0.7%
CMFO 141 10/22 6.30 166 17% 67% 0.0%
BLUD 142 10/22 16.92 1,193 13% 93% 0.0%
WTW 143 10/23 33.55 2,580 10% 1250% 2.1%
PWRD 144 10/23 28.01 1,483 13% 103% 0.0%
DECK 145 10/23 52.03 2,033 12% 128% 0.0%
ROST 146 10/23 57.62 6,947 13% 90% 1.0%
FLR 147 10/23 49.47 8,939 14% 83% 1.0%
CSFS 148 10/22 15.37 269 12% 140% 0.6%
SAI 149 10/23 15.76 5,752 14% 77% 0.0%
RLRN 150 10/23 11.68 342 10% 486% 2.8%
APAC 151 10/22 5.72 314 14% 80% 0.0%
DELL 152 10/23 14.59 28,587 11% 148% 0.0%
HWG 153 10/23 34.50 53 67% 51% 0.0%
EDMC 154 10/23 11.02 1,587 16% 67% 0.0%
VG 155 10/23 2.64 558 12% 111% 0.0%
CUB 156 10/22 42.96 1,149 12% 116% 0.4%
SPU 157 10/23 5.69 122 25% 53% 0.0%
NVMI 158 10/23 5.85 154 11% 198% 0.0%
DGIT 159 10/23 21.56 609 13% 88% 0.0%
DNB 160 10/23 75.22 3,799 10% 891% 1.9%
GD 161 10/23 64.50 25,060 14% 74% 2.5%
PVSW 162 10/23 5.00 81 10% 362% 0.0%
HITK 163 10/23 22.47 291 19% 57% 0.0%
SCSS 164 10/23 8.24 455 11% 147% 0.0%
DGX 165 10/23 49.03 8,546 12% 112% 0.8%
LSCC 166 10/23 4.55 551 14% 68% 0.0%
PZZ 167 10/23 8.46 196 14% 73% 0.0%
VSEC 168 10/23 38.31 199 20% 54% 0.6%
CATO 169 10/22 26.70 774 15% 66% 2.6%
HPQ 170 10/23 42.87 101,859 12% 109% 0.8%
CGC 171 10/22 4.31 215 15% 66% 0.0%
TJX 172 10/23 44.86 18,381 13% 80% 1.2%
CVVT 173 10/22 7.85 273 20% 54% 0.0%
ISSI 174 10/23 8.94 251 20% 53% 0.0%
AFCE 175 10/22 12.37 315 10% 192% 0.0%
CNTF 176 10/22 4.00 224 36% 47% 0.0%
CPE 177 10/22 4.77 141 26% 49% 0.0%
PBH 178 10/23 10.96 549 10% 201% 0.0%
ABC 179 10/22 32.36 9,277 11% 154% 1.0%
MKSI 180 10/23 20.48 1,044 23% 50% 0.0%
XRTX 181 10/23 16.18 506 27% 48% 0.0%
ALTR 182 10/22 29.14 9,239 10% 414% 0.7%
ZSTN 183 10/23 6.93 81 29% 47% 0.0%
UG 184 10/23 13.51 65 10% 179% 4.6%
GFRE 185 10/23 8.30 288 23% 49% 0.0%
INSP 186 10/23 8.49 317 11% 128% 0.0%
TKLC 187 10/23 13.00 896 13% 79% 0.0%
WU 188 10/23 17.90 12,022 10% 679% 1.3%
LLL 189 10/23 69.80 8,132 15% 61% 2.2%
NPK 190 10/23 116.53 800 15% 60% 7.1%
PRX 191 10/23 33.36 1,183 13% 72% 0.0%
QDEL 192 10/23 11.38 323 12% 78% 0.0%
KCI 193 10/23 36.49 2,620 13% 73% 0.0%
SGU 194 10/23 4.85 337 16% 56% 5.9%
TWX 195 10/23 31.52 36,368 11% 114% 2.6%
CBEH 196 10/22 7.39 325 17% 53% 0.0%
GLPW 197 10/23 17.05 280 12% 85% 0.0%
REV 198 10/23 14.50 759 11% 129% 1.2%
MO 199 10/23 24.92 51,834 10% 159% 5.7%
LH 200 10/23 79.16 8,241 12% 85% 0.0%
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3 comments:

Homer315 said...

Marsh, have you seen the VIC message board feature, which was installed a few months ago? One member posted a similar question, entitled "Best positioned companies at any price" and asked what companies people would be comfortable investing a large portion of their net worth for the next 15-20 years if you could buy the stock at 15x normalized earnings. Some interesting ideas there, including Amazon, Fedex, Visa & Mastercard.

I would lean toward Fedex or maybe Visa & Mastercard for their enormous moats. I would be worried about BRK because of the possibe reliance on Warren. Not a fan of PMI because I think there is a chance that even developing countries will try to dissuade their citizens from smoking, though it's probably not a huge risk in the next ten years.

3:25 PM
Marsh_Gerda said...

Hard to argue with FedEx, Visa or MA. I would lean towards MA in between those three. Another one I like is Chubb. Been around for over 100 years, has a great brand and is the favorite insurer for the wealthy - always a good market to tap... not to mention they're 20 to 30% below their normal price to book ratio (note I own ACE and Chubb for my kid's college funds)

4:13 PM
Jeff Camp said...

Marsh,

I have never owned but always thought MMM would be a good long term stock. They make things we use everyday.

7:17 PM

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