One item discussed in TLBTBTM is when to sell MFI stocks. JG candidly stated that he was not able to find a "best" date to sell/ He selected the one year holding period primarily for tax purposes. There has been discussion that a longer holding period would work just as well. I wondered whether that might reduce volatility and obviously trading costs. So I decided to test it.My Approach
As readers know, I have kept a database of 50 stocks (100m and over) and their starting price once a month since January of 2006. I have closed out each of these "tracking portfolios" after they hit the one year anniversary. If you had follwed this approach, and invested $100,000 evenly over the 1st 12 months, you would have $105,813 today. The same investment in the Russell 3000 would have you at $100,095.
I took the same database and did two things:
- I assumed you never "sold" a stock and
- I assumed you had 4 portfolios of $100,000 each based on the monthly portfolio closest to July 1st each year (2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009).
| MFI Approach | Russell 3000 | |||
| Year | Gain | 100k Now | Gain | 100k Now |
| 2006 | 0% | 100,008 | -2% | 98,040 |
| 2007 | -26% | 73,918 | -14% | 85,522 |
| 2008 | 22% | 122,326 | -3% | 96,917 |
| 2009 | 34% | 133,834 | 17% | 117,228 |
| 430,086 | 397,706 | |||
| Total Gain | 108% | -1% | ||
| Ann IRR | 2.92% | -0.23% | ||
| 100k | 107,521 | 99,427 |
So the equivalent of a new portfolio every month held for a year and 1 portfolio a year, never sold is $105,813 and $107,521. Pretty close! They might even be closer if I did not "ignore" the few stocks that I could not find (5 in total out of the 200). Note that the "outperformance on an annual basis is about points (IRR of 2.92% vs -0.23%).
Here are the individual stocks. I did the best i could to also adjust for dividends:
2006
| Date | Ticker | Initial | Today | Final Change |
| 6/30/2006 | FDG | $29.02 | $78.96 | 189% |
| 6/30/2006 | HAS | $17.86 | $45.73 | 171% |
| 6/30/2006 | MVL | $20.00 | $54.08 | 170% |
| 6/30/2006 | CHKP | $17.60 | $36.96 | 110% |
| 6/30/2006 | KOSP | $37.62 | $78.00 | 107% |
| 6/30/2006 | BDY | $10.20 | $20.00 | 96% |
| 6/30/2006 | VPHM | $ 8.62 | $14.98 | 74% |
| 6/30/2006 | PLAY | $ 9.81 | $13.47 | 37% |
| 6/30/2006 | IVII | $ 9.77 | $13.00 | 33% |
| 6/30/2006 | DLX | $16.83 | $18.92 | 30% |
| 6/30/2006 | ASEI | $57.92 | $74.79 | 29% |
| 6/30/2006 | MRX | $23.93 | $29.90 | 28% |
| 6/30/2006 | BVF | $22.33 | $26.35 | 24% |
| 6/30/2006 | ELNK | $ 8.66 | $ 8.62 | 20% |
| 6/30/2006 | NSS | $55.08 | $65.98 | 20% |
| 6/30/2006 | VTRU | $43.03 | $49.73 | 16% |
| 6/30/2006 | DEBS | $23.65 | $27.26 | 15% |
| 6/30/2006 | PWEI | $30.10 | $33.50 | 11% |
| 6/30/2006 | FTD | $13.37 | $14.68 | 10% |
| 6/30/2006 | OVTI | $21.12 | $22.62 | 7% |
| 6/30/2006 | XJT | $ 6.91 | $ 6.71 | -3% |
| 6/30/2006 | MEDQ.PK | $12.80 | $12.19 | -5% |
| 6/30/2006 | bbsi | $18.19 | $15.87 | -7% |
| 6/30/2006 | INTX | $10.85 | $ 9.12 | -12% |
| 6/30/2006 | KFY | $19.59 | $16.36 | -16% |
| 6/30/2006 | HNR | $13.54 | $11.13 | -18% |
| 6/30/2006 | PNCL | $ 7.04 | $ 5.38 | -24% |
| 6/30/2006 | AEO | $22.60 | $14.98 | -28% |
| 6/30/2006 | CECO | $29.89 | $20.39 | -32% |
| 6/30/2006 | HRB | $23.29 | $12.87 | -37% |
| 6/30/2006 | ANIK | $ 9.68 | $ 5.94 | -39% |
| 6/30/2006 | UNTD | $11.29 | $ 5.62 | -40% |
| 6/30/2006 | KG | $17.00 | $10.08 | -41% |
| 6/30/2006 | EGY | $ 9.76 | $ 5.65 | -42% |
| 6/30/2006 | ELOS | $20.88 | $ 9.90 | -53% |
| 6/30/2006 | KSWS | $26.57 | $12.38 | -53% |
| 6/30/2006 | RAIL | $55.29 | $25.33 | -54% |
| 6/30/2006 | FTO | $32.30 | $13.48 | -58% |
| 6/30/2006 | MOT | $20.01 | $ 8.55 | -57% |
| 6/30/2006 | CUTR | $19.72 | $ 7.53 | -62% |
| 6/30/2006 | ORCT | $10.20 | $ 3.00 | -71% |
| 6/30/2006 | ALJ | $29.29 | $ 5.32 | -80% |
| 6/30/2006 | MTEX | $12.41 | $ 2.08 | -83% |
| 6/30/2006 | PTSC.OB | $ 1.00 | $ 0.11 | -89% |
| 6/30/2006 | JTX | $31.01 | $ 1.10 | -96% |
| 6/30/2006 | WON | $ 7.35 | $ 0.13 | -98% |
| 6/30/2006 | ALDA | $24.38 | $ - | -100% |
| 6/30/2006 | char.pk | $ 5.73 | $ - | -100% |
2007
| Date | Ticker | Initial | Today | Final Change |
| 7/3/2007 | PBT | $11.72 | $ 20.13 | 93% |
| 7/3/2007 | BPT | $65.24 | $105.00 | 89% |
| 7/3/2007 | HLF | $39.39 | $ 61.35 | 60% |
| 7/3/2007 | ASPV | $17.58 | $ 26.00 | 48% |
| 7/3/2007 | FCGI | $ 9.11 | $ 12.91 | 42% |
| 7/3/2007 | SHOO | $32.53 | $ 42.82 | 32% |
| 7/3/2007 | ICFI | $20.71 | $ 25.52 | 23% |
| 7/3/2007 | AXCA | $18.99 | $ 23.34 | 23% |
| 7/3/2007 | BVF | $22.78 | $ 26.35 | 19% |
| 7/3/2007 | EGY | $ 5.00 | $ 5.64 | 13% |
| 7/3/2007 | VPHM | $14.37 | $ 14.97 | 4% |
| 7/3/2007 | TCK | $42.42 | $ 44.05 | 4% |
| 7/3/2007 | NXG | $ 2.95 | $ 2.97 | 1% |
| 7/3/2007 | TZOO | $26.15 | $ 25.22 | -4% |
| 7/3/2007 | ALOY | $10.05 | $ 9.71 | -3% |
| 7/3/2007 | DEBS | $28.85 | $ 27.26 | -6% |
| 7/3/2007 | PPD | $66.91 | $ 56.90 | -15% |
| 7/3/2007 | LRCX | $51.69 | $ 41.73 | -19% |
| 7/3/2007 | DPZ | $18.43 | $ 13.22 | -28% |
| 7/3/2007 | USMO | $22.48 | $ 15.98 | -20% |
| 7/3/2007 | EPIQ | $16.54 | $ 11.60 | -30% |
| 7/3/2007 | NUE | $57.61 | $ 39.76 | -26% |
| 7/3/2007 | JAKK | $28.84 | $ 18.10 | -37% |
| 7/3/2007 | KFY | $26.03 | $ 16.33 | -37% |
| 7/3/2007 | BBSI | $25.82 | $ 15.87 | -36% |
| 7/3/2007 | HBMFF.PK | $25.29 | $ 15.36 | -39% |
| 7/3/2007 | TBI | $23.68 | $ 13.98 | -41% |
| 7/3/2007 | AEO | $25.39 | $ 14.93 | -38% |
| 7/3/2007 | CHKE | $33.37 | $ 17.75 | -37% |
| 7/3/2007 | RAIL | $48.94 | $ 25.35 | -48% |
| 7/3/2007 | KG | $20.82 | $ 10.10 | -51% |
| 7/3/2007 | AVCI | $ 7.78 | $ 3.68 | -53% |
| 7/3/2007 | IVAC | $22.37 | $ 9.98 | -55% |
| 7/3/2007 | KSWS | $28.34 | $ 12.36 | -56% |
| 7/3/2007 | SCSS | $16.52 | $ 6.75 | -59% |
| 7/3/2007 | HOC | $75.65 | $ 29.49 | -59% |
| 7/3/2007 | VALU | $43.06 | $ 14.11 | -64% |
| 7/3/2007 | FTO | $45.99 | $ 13.49 | -70% |
| 7/3/2007 | PNCL | $18.98 | $ 5.38 | -72% |
| 7/3/2007 | PACR | $23.16 | $ 5.95 | -74% |
| 7/3/2007 | NOOF | $ 8.07 | $ 1.73 | -79% |
| 7/3/2007 | GLBL | $27.02 | $ 5.67 | -79% |
| 7/3/2007 | TGIS | $11.05 | $ 2.20 | -80% |
| 7/3/2007 | CONN | $28.98 | $ 5.02 | -83% |
| 7/3/2007 | MTEX | $15.34 | $ 2.06 | -87% |
| 7/3/2007 | WNR | $59.68 | $ 5.38 | -91% |
| 7/3/2007 | WON | $ 7.15 | $ 0.13 | -98% |
| 7/3/2007 | EGLT | $16.40 | $ - | -100% |
| 7/3/2007 | OPMR | $ 7.45 | $ - | -100% |
2008
| Date | Ticker | Initial | Today | Final Change |
| 7/2/2008 | DTPI | $ 3.90 | $12.50 | 229% |
| 7/2/2008 | TZOO | $ 8.30 | $25.11 | 203% |
| 7/2/2008 | BVF | $ 8.88 | $26.35 | 201% |
| 7/2/2008 | USMO | $ 6.18 | $16.02 | 175% |
| 7/2/2008 | SNCR | $ 8.58 | $18.09 | 111% |
| 7/2/2008 | CAST | $ 4.06 | $ 7.54 | 86% |
| 7/2/2008 | HLF | $36.50 | $61.38 | 70% |
| 7/2/2008 | CSGS | $11.16 | $18.33 | 64% |
| 7/2/2008 | ICFI | $16.16 | $25.50 | 58% |
| 7/2/2008 | MRX | $19.31 | $29.88 | 56% |
| 7/2/2008 | NTRI | $12.69 | $18.98 | 55% |
| 7/2/2008 | USNA | $26.65 | $39.43 | 48% |
| 7/2/2008 | PPD | $39.92 | $57.02 | 43% |
| 7/2/2008 | MSTR | $62.32 | $87.82 | 41% |
| 7/2/2008 | BBSI | $11.35 | $15.87 | 43% |
| 7/2/2008 | DEPO | $ 3.30 | $ 4.55 | 38% |
| 7/2/2008 | OMPI | $ 8.07 | $10.90 | 35% |
| 7/2/2008 | VPHM | $11.43 | $14.98 | 31% |
| 7/2/2008 | MDP | $25.69 | $33.03 | 32% |
| 7/2/2008 | DLX | $15.32 | $18.89 | 30% |
| 7/2/2008 | AYI | $39.91 | $47.91 | 21% |
| 7/2/2008 | RHI | $22.33 | $26.13 | 19% |
| 7/2/2008 | PROJ | $ 6.82 | $ 7.92 | 16% |
| 7/2/2008 | LRCX | $36.46 | $41.77 | 15% |
| 7/2/2008 | TBI | $12.54 | $13.95 | 11% |
| 7/2/2008 | FTD | $13.45 | $14.68 | 9% |
| 7/2/2008 | HHS | $10.50 | $11.33 | 11% |
| 7/2/2008 | ELNK | $ 8.22 | $ 8.61 | 8% |
| 7/2/2008 | KFY | $16.50 | $16.34 | -1% |
| 7/2/2008 | KG | $10.71 | $10.07 | -6% |
| 7/2/2008 | CALM | $30.28 | $28.01 | -4% |
| 7/2/2008 | JAKK | $20.31 | $18.15 | -11% |
| 7/2/2008 | EPAX | $13.79 | $11.77 | -13% |
| 7/2/2008 | GVHR | $ 4.82 | $ 3.99 | -13% |
| 7/2/2008 | MLHR | $24.06 | $19.88 | -17% |
| 7/2/2008 | SWIR | $13.80 | $11.13 | -19% |
| 7/2/2008 | HSII | $25.00 | $19.23 | -21% |
| 7/2/2008 | SIGM | $14.43 | $10.92 | -24% |
| 7/2/2008 | tpc | $27.95 | $21.12 | -24% |
| 7/2/2008 | CSKI | $11.20 | $ 7.77 | -31% |
| 7/2/2008 | EGY | $ 8.25 | $ 5.65 | -32% |
| 7/2/2008 | UNTD | $ 9.37 | $ 5.64 | -36% |
| 7/2/2008 | FTO | $22.45 | $13.49 | -40% |
| 7/2/2008 | HLYS | $ 4.11 | $ 2.50 | -39% |
| 7/2/2008 | TRID | $ 3.73 | $ 1.74 | -53% |
| 7/2/2008 | VALU | $30.36 | $14.11 | -52% |
| 7/2/2008 | PRXI | $ 4.17 | $ 1.71 | -59% |
| 7/2/2008 | PACR | $20.05 | $ 5.95 | -70% |
| 7/2/2008 | CITP | $ 8.43 | $ - | -100% |
| 7/2/2008 | IDAR.PK | $ 1.94 | $ - | -100% |
2009
| Date | Ticker | Initial | Today | % Change |
| 6/29/2009 | TRA | $ 20.30 | $ 45.76 | 125% |
| 6/29/2009 | IPHS | $ 15.60 | $ 33.88 | 117% |
| 6/29/2009 | DECK | $ 23.40 | $ 50.28 | 115% |
| 6/29/2009 | HLF | $ 30.64 | $ 61.32 | 100% |
| 6/29/2009 | QCOR | $ 4.96 | $ 9.80 | 98% |
| 6/29/2009 | ENDP | $ 18.38 | $ 34.06 | 85% |
| 6/29/2009 | CTCM | $ 12.25 | $ 22.67 | 85% |
| 6/29/2009 | ttt | $ 8.45 | $ 15.38 | 82% |
| 6/29/2009 | PROJ | $ 4.37 | $ 7.95 | 82% |
| 6/29/2009 | MSTR | $ 50.23 | $ 87.89 | 75% |
| 6/29/2009 | DIVX | $ 5.65 | $ 9.25 | 64% |
| 6/29/2009 | via-b | $ 23.40 | $ 36.47 | 56% |
| 6/29/2009 | KFY | $ 10.64 | $ 16.42 | 54% |
| 6/29/2009 | EXBD | $ 20.46 | $ 31.39 | 53% |
| 6/29/2009 | DLX | $ 12.52 | $ 18.96 | 51% |
| 6/29/2009 | IILG | $ 9.26 | $ 13.55 | 46% |
| 6/29/2009 | DRC | $ 25.96 | $ 37.25 | 43% |
| 6/29/2009 | NOV | $ 32.36 | $ 46.25 | 43% |
| 6/29/2009 | SOLR | $ 5.75 | $ 8.22 | 43% |
| 6/29/2009 | GNI | $ 83.15 | $ 117.49 | 41% |
| 6/29/2009 | NTRI | $ 13.68 | $ 19.07 | 39% |
| 6/29/2009 | EGY | $ 4.06 | $ 5.65 | 39% |
| 6/29/2009 | BR | $ 16.27 | $ 22.55 | 39% |
| 6/29/2009 | KBR | $ 18.56 | $ 25.15 | 36% |
| 6/29/2009 | ASGN | $ 3.98 | $ 5.37 | 35% |
| 6/29/2009 | USMO | $ 11.95 | $ 15.98 | 34% |
| 6/29/2009 | PPD | $ 43.64 | $ 57.23 | 31% |
| 6/29/2009 | VM | $ 4.08 | $ 5.18 | 27% |
| 6/29/2009 | EME | $ 19.77 | $ 24.93 | 26% |
| 6/29/2009 | FRX | $ 25.15 | $ 31.36 | 25% |
| 6/29/2009 | TWX | $ 24.65 | $ 30.42 | 23% |
| 6/29/2009 | LO | $ 64.90 | $ 79.03 | 22% |
| 6/29/2009 | TPC | $ 17.59 | $ 21.21 | 21% |
| 6/29/2009 | ELNK | $ 7.23 | $ 8.61 | 19% |
| 6/29/2009 | DISH | $ 16.10 | $ 19.10 | 19% |
| 6/29/2009 | PFE | $ 14.67 | $ 17.24 | 18% |
| 6/29/2009 | GTLS | $ 18.80 | $ 21.25 | 13% |
| 6/29/2009 | GHM | $ 13.46 | $ 15.16 | 13% |
| 6/29/2009 | FIX | $ 10.07 | $ 10.92 | 8% |
| 6/29/2009 | FWLT | $ 23.88 | $ 24.48 | 3% |
| 6/29/2009 | GME | $ 22.17 | $ 20.17 | -9% |
| 6/29/2009 | CRAY | $ 7.65 | $ 6.95 | -9% |
| 6/29/2009 | AMED | $ 33.44 | $ 23.98 | -28% |
| 6/29/2009 | SCMP | $ 6.13 | $ 3.51 | -43% |
| 6/29/2009 | CSKI | $ 13.85 | $ 7.79 | -44% |
| 6/29/2009 | SRDX | $ 22.91 | $ 11.90 | -48% |
| 6/29/2009 | UTA | $ 10.88 | $ 4.14 | -62% |
| 6/29/2009 | JTX | $ 6.01 | $ 1.15 | -81% |
___________________________________________________________________
Addendum
I felt badly about not finding 5 stocks. I went back and found EGLT -8%), ALDA (-68%), CITP (+109%) and OPMR (-82%). So the only stock I could not find was CHAR, which I have marked to 0. Here are the revised totals, not much change:
| MFI Approach | Russell 3000 | |||
| Year | Gain | 100k Now | Gain | 100k Now |
| 2006 | -4% | 96,207 | -2% | 98,040 |
| 2007 | -27% | 73,438 | -14% | 85,522 |
| 2008 | 24% | 124,067 | -3% | 96,917 |
| 2009 | 34% | 133,834 | 17% | 117,228 |
| 427,546 | 397,706 | |||
| Total Gain | 107% | -1% | ||
| Ann IRR | 2.68% | -0.23% | ||
| 100k | 106,886 | 99,427 |
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