Saturday, November 07, 2015

Weekend Update 11/7/15

Weekend Update

Another week rips by. Have a real Indian Summer here. That phrase reminds of of the Seinfeld episode where he dates a native American.  And then he keeps using  phrases that insult her culture, like "Ticket Scalpers". But yesterday it was a record high here, 73 degrees.  The plants in our garden are confused.

This past week was very solid. I am now up 11% on the year.   My MFI Select portfolio is up  29% in 2015!

MFI Select

As mentioned, up 29% for the year.  It has to be said that is entirely NHTC. When you have 20 stocks in your portfolio and two of the positions are up 300%, that does have a material  impact.

11/15/2014 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
FLR $64.80 $49.14 $0.84 -22.9% 4.5%
IPCM $38.45 $79.72 $0.00 107.3% 4.5%
VIAB $72.29 $47.71 $1.46 -32.0% 4.5%
NHTC $12.19 $50.89 $0.06 318.0% 4.5%
AWRE $4.40 $3.23 $0.00 -26.6% 4.5%
Totals 68.8% 4.5%
2/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VEC $28.00 $26.14 $0.00 -6.6% 6.0%
QCOM $62.73 $53.42 $1.38 -12.6% 6.0%
VIAB $63.91 $47.71 $1.13 -23.6% 6.0%
UIS $22.03 $14.26 $0.00 -35.3% 6.0%
NHTC $12.44 $50.89 $0.05 309.5% 6.0%
Totals 46.3% 6.0%
5/6/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CBI $50.38 $44.20 $0.14 -12.0% 0.8%
PSDV $4.12 $3.80 $0.00 -7.9% 0.8%
TSRA $38.94 $33.86 $0.40 -12.0% 0.8%
KORS $62.24 $43.48 $0.00 -30.1% 0.8%
DEPO $23.50 $19.87 $0.00 -15.4% 0.8%
Totals -15.5% 0.8%
8/17/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VDSI $18.66 $20.31 $0.00 8.8% 0.2%
SALE $9.34 $10.89 $0.00 16.6% 0.2%
CSCO $28.95 $28.45 $0.21 -1.0% 0.2%
TGNA $25.30 $27.04 $0.14 7.4% 0.2%
HSII $20.14 $28.82 $0.13 43.7% 0.2%
Totals 15.1% 0.2%
Category/Tranche August November February May Total
Initial Investment        25,000          25,000       25,000        25,000      100,000
Current Tranche 15.1% 68.8% 46.3% -15.5% 29.1%
Previous Tranche 11.2% 14.2% 8.5% 18.3% 16.8%
Tranche -2 41.4% 43.7% 78.3% 33.0% 49.1%
Tranche -3 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MFI Overall Gain 106.5% 177.0% 182.8% 32.9% 124.8%
Current Balance        51,615          69,258       70,692        33,236      224,801
R3K Current Tranche 0.2% 4.5% 6.0% 0.8% 2.9%
R3K Overall Gain 59.0% 63.6% 45.0% 35.2% 50.7%
R3K Balance        39,746          40,888       36,245        33,805      150,684
Annualized IRR 25.2% 40.8% 45.7% 12.0% 31.3%


Date Differential MFI Value R3K Value
12/1/2012 -2.20%          99,765            101,965
1/1/2013 -1.78%        102,798            104,575
2/1/2013 -2.26%        102,594            104,856
3/1/2013 -2.23%        102,881            105,114
4/1/2013 -0.43%        106,804            107,234
5/1/2013 2.00%        110,423            108,423
6/1/2013 4.75%        115,831            111,085
7/1/2013 4.29%        114,888            110,597
8/1/2013 6.91%        124,799            117,889
9/1/2013 10.46%        124,536            114,079
10/1/2013 19.67%        138,655            118,990
11/1/2013 19.75%        143,514            123,764
12/1/2013 23.70%        150,105            126,405
1/1/2014 26.63%        157,138            130,503
2/1/2014 24.70%        150,619            125,918
3/1/2014 25.66%        158,116            132,458
4/1/2014 30.38%        162,991            132,616
5/1/2014 29.65%        162,428            132,779
6/1/2014 31.44%        167,001            135,559
7/1/2014 39.23%        177,971            138,740
8/1/2014 31.13%        167,054            135,922
9/1/2014 35.90%        177,792            141,892
10/1/2014 29.38%        168,321            138,944
11/1/2014 26.14%        168,810            142,666
12/1/2014 30.22%        176,420            146,198
1/1/2015 28.17%        174,306            146,140
2/1/2015 20.63%        162,833            142,201
3/1/2015 25.15%        175,476            150,324
4/1/2015 29.95%        178,565            148,612
5/1/2015 37.31%        186,655            149,348
6/1/2015 51.53%        202,897            151,371
7/1/2015 62.69%        211,437            148,743
8/1/2015 40.75%        192,117            151,369
9/1/2015 36.41%        178,603            142,195
10/1/2015 43.12%        181,175            138,052
11/1/2015 69.02%        217,959            148,936
Current 74.12%        224,801            150,684
This table pretty much tells it all. The lead has sprinted from 36.41% on 9/1 to 74.12% now. Hooray! Looking by tranche, obviously February & November are grand.  May is a struggle, but the August group is starting strongly.

MFI Formula

This group has pretty much fallen back into a dead heat with the Index. The QCOM thrashing this week didn't help.

12/31/14 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
CA $30.83 $27.40 $0.75 -8.7% 2.0%
CSCO $28.36 $28.45 $0.82 3.2% 2.0%
RGR $34.81 $52.87 $0.85 54.3% 2.0%
GME $34.21 $46.82 $1.08 40.0% 2.0%
IQNT $19.87 $19.33 $0.45 -0.5% 2.0%
Totals 17.7% 2.0%
3/31/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
HRB $31.99 $37.21 $0.40 17.6% 0.7%
GME $37.69 $46.82 $0.72 26.1% 0.7%
KING $15.85 $17.81 $0.00 12.4% 0.7%
NSU $3.43 $2.82 $0.08 -15.5% 0.7%
PPC $22.65 $20.21 $0.00 -10.8% 0.7%
Totals 6.0% 0.7%
7/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $46.45 $34.37 $0.46 -25.0% 0.7%
CA $29.34 $27.40 $0.25 -5.8% 0.7%
MSFT $44.42 $54.92 $0.31 24.3% 0.7%
QCOM $62.95 $53.42 $0.48 -14.4% 0.7%
VIAB $64.75 $47.71 $0.40 -25.7% 0.7%
Totals -9.3% 0.7%
10/1/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
BKE $36.83 $34.37 $0.23 -6.1% 9.2%
IQNT $21.96 $19.33 $0.00 -12.0% 9.2%
QCOM $53.45 $53.42 $0.00 0.0% 9.2%
CSCO $26.37 $28.45 $0.21 8.7% 9.2%
CA $27.30 $27.40 $0.00 0.4% 9.2%
Totals -1.8% 9.2%

Wow, I didn't realize R3K was up 9.2% since 10/1!

Date Differential Value R3K Value
10/1/2014 0.00%        100,000            100,000
11/1/2014 1.63%        102,288            100,658
12/1/2014 0.30%        101,375            101,075
1/1/2015 -0.33%        100,664            100,995
2/1/2015 1.67%        101,281              99,611
3/1/2015 3.62%        106,073            102,454
4/1/2015 5.09%        106,781            101,695
5/1/2015 5.78%        107,859            102,077
6/1/2015 5.08%        108,213            103,134
7/1/2015 4.82%        106,423            101,604
8/1/2015 3.71%        107,112            103,404
9/1/2015 4.38%        101,523              97,139
10/1/2015 6.39%        100,703              94,312
11/1/2015 2.93%        104,835            101,907
Current 0.11%        103,217            103,105

Definitely getting beaten like a drum since 10/1.

MFI Micro

This portfolio has exploded upwards the past few weeks and is actually in position to (gasp) take the lead.

8/28/2015 Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
VNCE $8.50 $4.56 $0.00 -46.4% 5.3%
ONE $1.99 $3.22 $0.00 61.8% 5.3%
TPUB $11.60 $9.35 $0.18 -17.9% 5.3%
LQDT $7.26 $8.62 $0.00 18.7% 5.3%
PERI $2.45 $2.44 $0.00 -0.4% 5.3%
Totals 3.2% 5.3%
Dividends and Warrants

Really helped by the jobs number yesterday, BAC and HIG moved up nicely.

Div and Warrants Start Current Dividend Pct Gain Pct Gain Last Week
BAC-WTA $6.04 $6.69 $0.00 10.8% 6.5%
AOD $8.09 $8.12 $1.55 19.6% 18.2%
FSC $7.05 $6.18 $0.46 -5.8% -12.2%
CSQ $9.31 $10.19 $1.83 29.1% 29.2%
NTC $12.05 $12.52 $1.14 13.3% 13.7%
TGONF $10.24 $9.85 $1.03 6.2% 5.8%
HIG-WT $21.24 $40.10 $0.00 88.8% 86.9%
O $22.52 $47.47 $17.58 188.9% 197.7%
OIBAX $5.04 $5.60 $2.13 53.3% 54.1%
sjt $11.06 $7.26 $0.17 -32.8% -29.3%
Totals 13.6% 12.3%

Wow, SJT has really been a dog.

2 comments:

jb said...

You are destroying the market return! I wish I could say the same thing with my current tranches. My current November tranche of 10 stocks has 10 losers - not one of them is showing a positive return over the past 11-1/2 months. It really is the luck of the draw. Since MFI is a strategy that works out 'on average' is there any reason why you hold 'only' 20 stocks in your MFI select? I realized we don't have unlimited amounts of capital to allocate to every strategy we could devise, but if the money was at IB then the transaction costs are very, very low and more stocks could be added.

regards,
j

Marsh_Gerda said...

I could go with more stocks. When I first did the reboot, I had a lot of money in non MFI approaches. I then wound those down and did the MFI formula. So I really have 40 stocks going at any one time now.