After a dreadful week last week, where all news was bad news; I did bounce back some this week. Sadly, the bounce was less than the broader market due to stocks like QCOM (Qualcomm's Biggest Profit Engine Faces More Pressure). So I continue to give back ground on my leads. I have to admit, sometimes I think about dollar cost averaging in the indices. Is all this effort worth it?
Admittedly, this has been a bad year for magic formula investing. My index is now down over 5.5% on the year. And the open tranches of my tracking portfolios are down 4.8% (versus +1.6% for laddered benchmarks). So it is not really that I am flailing around this year (x NHTC), but rather the formula is struggling.
MFI Select
This continues to be my gold standard portfolio/approach. I suppose this is the evidence that I should stay the course.
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $23.62 | $0.00 | -15.6% | 5.4% |
| QCOM | $62.73 | $49.62 | $1.38 | -18.7% | 5.4% |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $52.71 | $1.13 | -15.8% | 5.4% |
| UIS | $22.03 | $12.30 | $0.00 | -44.2% | 5.4% |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $42.56 | $0.05 | 242.5% | 5.4% |
| Totals | 29.7% | 5.4% | |||
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $41.92 | $0.14 | -16.5% | 0.2% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $3.82 | $0.00 | -7.4% | 0.2% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $32.20 | $0.40 | -16.3% | 0.2% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $41.13 | $0.00 | -33.9% | 0.2% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $18.48 | $0.00 | -21.4% | 0.2% |
| Totals | -19.1% | 0.2% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $19.72 | $0.00 | 5.7% | -0.4% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $9.20 | $0.00 | -1.5% | -0.4% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $27.57 | $0.21 | -4.0% | -0.4% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $28.13 | $0.14 | 11.7% | -0.4% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $27.87 | $0.13 | 39.0% | -0.4% |
| Totals | 10.2% | -0.4% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $37.47 | - | 10.2% | 1.9% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $36.16 | - | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $19.15 | - | 0.9% | 1.9% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $23.62 | - | 0.1% | 1.9% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $3.62 | - | -9.3% | 1.9% |
| Totals | 1.4% | 1.9% |
You can see the most recent tranche is now trailing by 1/2 a point. The August tranche is looking strong.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| Current | 64.99% | 214,357 | 149,370 |
This table is certainly impressive.
MFI Formula
The struggle over here continues. This portfolio/approach is in the red since kicking off. QCOM and GME have really dropped the past two weeks.
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $28.28 | $0.75 | -5.8% | 1.4% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $27.57 | $0.82 | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $51.36 | $1.10 | 50.7% | 1.4% |
| GME | $34.21 | $39.26 | $1.08 | 17.9% | 1.4% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $19.14 | $0.45 | -1.4% | 1.4% |
| Totals | 12.3% | 1.4% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $37.02 | $0.40 | 17.0% | 0.1% |
| GME | $37.69 | $39.26 | $0.72 | 6.1% | 0.1% |
| KING | $15.85 | $17.72 | $0.00 | 11.8% | 0.1% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $2.74 | $0.08 | -17.8% | 0.1% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $19.15 | $0.00 | -15.5% | 0.1% |
| Totals | 0.3% | 0.1% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $30.43 | $0.46 | -33.5% | 0.2% |
| CA | $29.34 | $28.28 | $0.25 | -2.8% | 0.2% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $54.19 | $0.67 | 23.5% | 0.2% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $49.62 | $0.48 | -20.4% | 0.2% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $52.71 | $0.40 | -18.0% | 0.2% |
| Totals | -10.2% | 0.2% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $30.43 | $0.23 | -16.8% | 8.6% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $19.14 | $0.00 | -12.8% | 8.6% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $49.62 | $0.00 | -7.2% | 8.6% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $27.57 | $0.21 | 5.3% | 8.6% |
| CA | $27.30 | $28.28 | $0.00 | 3.6% | 8.6% |
| Totals | -5.6% | 8.6% |
Wow, that 10/1 tranche is a really back breaker. Down 5.6%, while the benchmark has shot up 8.6%! Talk about missing the boat. I was remiss and did not write down the stocks I didn't pick. I did look at the dividend stocks in my 9/25 tracking portfolio > 600m market cap. Excluding my picks, they're down 0.8%. So that is pretty poor too. If you throw out PDLI, they are up 3%.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| Current | -3.25% | 99,284 | 102,532 |
This is the depressing table. Especially since 11/1. Glad I didn't get $50 million to start a hedge fund!
MFI Micro
THis portfolio really fell off a cliff this week, with LQDT getting beaten down (Liquidity Services Plunges on Nervous 2016 Outlook). I knew this approach would be volatile and I did put less $ into it.
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $3.62 | $0.00 | -57.4% | 4.7% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $2.95 | $0.00 | 48.2% | 4.7% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $8.25 | $0.18 | -27.4% | 4.7% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $6.55 | $0.00 | -9.8% | 4.7% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.40 | $0.00 | -2.2% | 4.7% |
| Totals | -9.7% | 4.7% |
Index funds anybody?
Dividends and Warrants
Well, at least dividends continue to churn in. SJT has been a total disaster. This was not only the warmest October in recorded weather history in the US, but it was the warmest month relative to "average" in history. The whole winter is looking to be very warm in all the long range forecasts I am reading. That will continue to pressure natural gas and oil, unless something else changes (a war, Saudis slow down output etc). I will hold SJT as my dividend stocks are for long term. Prices will (should) rebound next year (or so my long range forecasters say).
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week |
| BAC-WTA | $6.04 | $6.32 | $0.00 | 4.7% | 3.9% |
| AOD | $8.09 | $7.94 | $1.61 | 18.1% | 14.5% |
| FSC | $7.04 | $6.37 | $0.52 | -2.1% | -6.7% |
| CSQ | $9.32 | $10.00 | $1.90 | 27.7% | 24.8% |
| NTC | $12.05 | $12.54 | $1.20 | 14.0% | 13.7% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $10.12 | $1.19 | 10.5% | 8.3% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $38.43 | $0.00 | 80.9% | 77.0% |
| O | $22.62 | $49.67 | $17.51 | 197.0% | 188.8% |
| OIBAX | $5.04 | $5.60 | $2.13 | 53.3% | 53.1% |
| sjt | $11.04 | $5.46 | $0.17 | -49.0% | -39.9% |
| Totals | 10.9% | 9.8% |
So gained a point on last week, but the index was up 3%. Pretty much the tale of the week for me.
Call It A Wrap
Well, enough of my pity party. One week or even one year does not an investment strategy make. I have planted the seeds and still expect to harvest a nice crop. In football, my teams have lost 13 straight. But I am hopeful Indiana can take the Terps today. And Tony Romo returns for the Cowbuys against the Fish. So we'll see if things look up!
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