Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Talking Turkey

Well, despite my gnashing of teeth this weekend, my MFI portfolios are hanging in there. Really helped by a sudden resurgence in retail.

So I have eight official MFI tranches, plus one 1/2 micro tranche.

Formula Approach

These are still struggling. The sell offs in GME, BKE and QCOM have just been too much water to carry.  The 12/31 portfolio is a handy winner (thanks RGR).  3/31 is in a dead heat (helped by KING and HRB). But 7/1 is dreadful, down 9.9% with MSFT the only winner.  KING, HRB and RTN would have been great picks by Mr Random, all are up over 25%.

Then 10/1 is also a mess, off 4.5%. BKE and IQNT are the lead weights, each down double digits. The index is up almost 9%. So this tranche is the biggest loser on a relative basis.

Select Approach

Except for my May disaster (what was I thinking, can I have a mulligan?), these tranches are solid.

February is up 36%, helped almost entirely by NHTC at 278%. Actually, all the other four stocks are down double digits.

May (recall the disaster) is down 18% in total, making it my worst tranche since the reboot. Actually my first in the red. Next worst is up 8.5%.  Although in my formula approach, the September 2014 tranche was up a mere 1/2 a percentage point.  KORS at -30% is the laggard, although not a single stock is in the green.  My ten rejects are also down 19%, so winners were few and far between.

August - really off to a jolly good start. Up 8.5%, really helped by HSII at almost 40%.

November - only a couple weeks in, but up 6.8% already - all five picks are clicking. I wish it were always so easy (11 long months to go).


I knew these were high beta stocks, but am not happy to be down 8%. I feel I can still battle back - but news for VNCE and LQDT had created head winds.

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