Tuesday, November 10, 2015

Smartest Guy In The Room?

I was bummed out today when CSIQ announced what appeared to be solid earnings and guidance, only to watch it slip negative after a 7% pop at the opening bell.  I wondered whether part of the issue was SUNE, which is down 21% today on a poor outlook.

Whenever us average investors get it wrong, we can take solace that the big guys screw up as well. Bill Ack,an has seen VRX drop from north of $200 to around $80 recently.

One guy who has been wrong a lot lately (recall his short of CMG as Taco Bell would win their customers) has been David Einhorn. He has been a big backer of SUNE (largest owner?). He has 24 million shares at an average price of almost $18. Today, SUNE is trading for a bit under $6.

He praised them recently, "we see potential for significant recovery from current prices".  At the same time, David Tepper was rumored to be interested in a SUNE position. A couple days later he clarified that with "believers of SunEdison rumors must be high".

I think with today's earnings, it is clear who the smartest guy in the room was that day.

On another note, I did mention BBSI a few days ago as a potential 11/15 buy. They are down almost 30% on a note from their auditors saying financial reports will be delayed. This (I believe) is related to an event a year ago where BBSI took a material hit on a workers compensation reserve (they must self insure in some fashion).  It seems the auditors are now questioning that. May be a great time to buy BBSI - but I am always nervous about financial statement restatements.

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