Another week flies by. Holiday week, certainly makes it go faster. The week felt good to me in the markets until we got to Friday, which was an unsatisfying day.
My update here will be relatively brief. I also have a monthly tracking portfolio hitting it's anniversary today. So look for a write-up on it.
So for the year, I am up 6.8%. The MFI Select portfolios are up a bit more than 28% (although without NHTC, I suspect they'd be close to break even). MFI Formula tranches are down 1.2%. My MFI Index is down 4%.
MFI Select
I did profile these guys mid week. All is very well, except for the May tranche.
| 2/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VEC | $28.00 | $24.56 | $0.00 | -12.3% | 5.8% |
| QCOM | $62.73 | $48.54 | $1.38 | -20.4% | 5.8% |
| VIAB | $63.91 | $51.16 | $1.13 | -18.2% | 5.8% |
| UIS | $22.03 | $12.68 | $0.00 | -42.4% | 5.8% |
| NHTC | $12.44 | $48.28 | $0.05 | 288.5% | 5.8% |
| Totals | 39.0% | 5.8% | |||
| 5/6/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CBI | $50.38 | $42.09 | $0.14 | -16.2% | 0.6% |
| PSDV | $4.12 | $3.92 | $0.00 | -5.1% | 0.6% |
| TSRA | $38.94 | $32.74 | $0.60 | -14.4% | 0.6% |
| KORS | $62.24 | $42.52 | $0.00 | -31.7% | 0.6% |
| DEPO | $23.50 | $19.13 | $0.00 | -18.6% | 0.6% |
| Totals | -17.2% | 0.6% | |||
| 8/17/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VDSI | $18.66 | $18.58 | $0.00 | -0.4% | 0.0% |
| SALE | $9.34 | $9.70 | $0.00 | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| CSCO | $28.95 | $27.32 | $0.21 | -4.9% | 0.0% |
| TGNA | $25.30 | $28.12 | $0.14 | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| HSII | $20.14 | $27.90 | $0.13 | 39.2% | 0.0% |
| Totals | 9.9% | 0.0% | |||
| 11/15/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| LCI | $34.01 | $36.98 | - | 8.7% | 2.3% |
| SAVE | $34.48 | $36.20 | - | 5.0% | 2.3% |
| PPC | $18.98 | $21.01 | - | 10.7% | 2.3% |
| VEC | $23.60 | $24.56 | - | 4.1% | 2.3% |
| VNCE | $3.99 | $4.25 | - | 6.5% | 2.3% |
| Totals | 7.0% | 2.3% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 9.9% | 7.0% | 39.0% | -17.2% | 10.4% |
| Previous Tranche | 11.2% | 69.4% | 8.5% | 18.3% | 42.8% |
| Tranche -2 | 41.4% | 14.2% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 41.7% |
| Tranche -3 | 14.1% | 43.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 97.1% | 197.6% | 168.8% | 30.3% | 123.4% |
| Current Balance | 49,264 | 74,405 | 67,195 | 32,571 | 223,435 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 0.0% | 2.3% | 5.8% | 0.6% | 2.2% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 58.7% | 61.4% | 44.7% | 35.0% | 49.9% |
| R3K Balance | 39,676 | 40,342 | 36,182 | 33,746 | 149,946 |
| Annualized IRR | 22.9% | 43.3% | 42.0% | 10.9% | 31.9% |
It was odd, LCI sold off pretty sharply on Friday as they announced closing of a deal. Perhaps the markets felt the price paid was too high.
| Date | Differential | MFI Value | R3K Value |
| 12/1/2012 | -2.20% | 99,765 | 101,965 |
| 1/1/2013 | -1.78% | 102,798 | 104,575 |
| 2/1/2013 | -2.26% | 102,594 | 104,856 |
| 3/1/2013 | -2.23% | 102,881 | 105,114 |
| 4/1/2013 | -0.43% | 106,804 | 107,234 |
| 5/1/2013 | 2.00% | 110,423 | 108,423 |
| 6/1/2013 | 4.75% | 115,831 | 111,085 |
| 7/1/2013 | 4.29% | 114,888 | 110,597 |
| 8/1/2013 | 6.91% | 124,799 | 117,889 |
| 9/1/2013 | 10.46% | 124,536 | 114,079 |
| 10/1/2013 | 19.67% | 138,655 | 118,990 |
| 11/1/2013 | 19.75% | 143,514 | 123,764 |
| 12/1/2013 | 23.70% | 150,105 | 126,405 |
| 1/1/2014 | 26.63% | 157,138 | 130,503 |
| 2/1/2014 | 24.70% | 150,619 | 125,918 |
| 3/1/2014 | 25.66% | 158,116 | 132,458 |
| 4/1/2014 | 30.38% | 162,991 | 132,616 |
| 5/1/2014 | 29.65% | 162,428 | 132,779 |
| 6/1/2014 | 31.44% | 167,001 | 135,559 |
| 7/1/2014 | 39.23% | 177,971 | 138,740 |
| 8/1/2014 | 31.13% | 167,054 | 135,922 |
| 9/1/2014 | 35.90% | 177,792 | 141,892 |
| 10/1/2014 | 29.38% | 168,321 | 138,944 |
| 11/1/2014 | 26.14% | 168,810 | 142,666 |
| 12/1/2014 | 30.22% | 176,420 | 146,198 |
| 1/1/2015 | 28.17% | 174,306 | 146,140 |
| 2/1/2015 | 20.63% | 162,833 | 142,201 |
| 3/1/2015 | 25.15% | 175,476 | 150,324 |
| 4/1/2015 | 29.95% | 178,565 | 148,612 |
| 5/1/2015 | 37.31% | 186,655 | 149,348 |
| 6/1/2015 | 51.53% | 202,897 | 151,371 |
| 7/1/2015 | 62.69% | 211,437 | 148,743 |
| 8/1/2015 | 40.75% | 192,117 | 151,369 |
| 9/1/2015 | 36.41% | 178,603 | 142,195 |
| 10/1/2015 | 43.12% | 181,175 | 138,052 |
| 11/1/2015 | 69.02% | 217,959 | 148,936 |
| 12/1/2015 | 73.49% | 223,435 | 149,946 |
Looking at the month by month moves, one can see that we enter December at an all time best - both in absolute dollars (assuming we had started with $100,000, we are now at $223,435) and differential.
MFI Formula
Obviously a bit more of a struggle here as I have mentioned of late.
| 12/31/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| CA | $30.83 | $28.20 | $1.00 | -5.3% | 1.8% |
| CSCO | $28.36 | $27.32 | $0.82 | -0.8% | 1.8% |
| RGR | $34.81 | $53.28 | $1.10 | 56.2% | 1.8% |
| GME | $34.21 | $36.01 | $1.08 | 8.4% | 1.8% |
| IQNT | $19.87 | $19.37 | $0.60 | 0.5% | 1.8% |
| Totals | 11.8% | 1.8% | |||
| 3/31/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| HRB | $31.99 | $36.73 | $0.40 | 16.1% | 0.5% |
| GME | $37.69 | $36.01 | $0.72 | -2.5% | 0.5% |
| KING | $15.85 | $17.67 | $0.00 | 11.5% | 0.5% |
| NSU | $3.43 | $2.76 | $0.08 | -17.2% | 0.5% |
| PPC | $22.65 | $21.01 | $0.00 | -7.2% | 0.5% |
| Totals | 0.1% | 0.5% | |||
| 7/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $46.45 | $32.76 | $0.46 | -28.5% | 0.6% |
| CA | $29.34 | $28.20 | $0.50 | -2.2% | 0.6% |
| MSFT | $44.42 | $53.93 | $0.67 | 22.9% | 0.6% |
| QCOM | $62.95 | $48.54 | $0.48 | -22.1% | 0.6% |
| VIAB | $64.75 | $51.16 | $0.40 | -20.4% | 0.6% |
| Totals | -10.0% | 0.6% | |||
| 10/1/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BKE | $36.83 | $32.76 | $0.23 | -10.4% | 9.0% |
| IQNT | $21.96 | $19.37 | $0.15 | -11.1% | 9.0% |
| QCOM | $53.45 | $48.54 | $0.00 | -9.2% | 9.0% |
| CSCO | $26.37 | $27.32 | $0.21 | 4.4% | 9.0% |
| CA | $27.30 | $28.20 | $0.25 | 4.2% | 9.0% |
| Totals | -4.4% | 9.0% |
The two most recent tranches are really quite poor.
| Date | Differential | Value | R3K Value |
| 10/1/2014 | 0.00% | 100,000 | 100,000 |
| 11/1/2014 | 1.63% | 102,288 | 100,658 |
| 12/1/2014 | 0.30% | 101,375 | 101,075 |
| 1/1/2015 | -0.33% | 100,664 | 100,995 |
| 2/1/2015 | 1.67% | 101,281 | 99,611 |
| 3/1/2015 | 3.62% | 106,073 | 102,454 |
| 4/1/2015 | 5.09% | 106,781 | 101,695 |
| 5/1/2015 | 5.78% | 107,859 | 102,077 |
| 6/1/2015 | 5.08% | 108,213 | 103,134 |
| 7/1/2015 | 4.82% | 106,423 | 101,604 |
| 8/1/2015 | 3.71% | 107,112 | 103,404 |
| 9/1/2015 | 4.38% | 101,523 | 97,139 |
| 10/1/2015 | 6.39% | 100,703 | 94,312 |
| 11/1/2015 | 2.93% | 104,835 | 101,907 |
| Current | -3.48% | 99,443 | 102,926 |
You can see that November was a bad month for this portfolio. If you look at my select approach, you'll see bad months as well - so not time to throw out the baby and the bathwater yet.
MFI Micro
This mini portfolio continues to be volatile, and thus far volatile in a bad way. Who knows where it will end?
| 8/28/2015 | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| VNCE | $8.50 | $4.25 | $0.00 | -50.0% | 5.2% |
| ONE | $1.99 | $3.07 | $0.00 | 54.3% | 5.2% |
| TPUB | $11.60 | $9.29 | $0.18 | -18.4% | 5.2% |
| LQDT | $7.26 | $6.76 | $0.00 | -6.9% | 5.2% |
| PERI | $2.45 | $2.28 | $0.00 | -6.9% | 5.2% |
| Totals | -5.6% | 5.2% |
That is pretty poor. The MFI tracking portfolio, started at almost the same time is up 6.6%.
Dividends & Warrants
| Div and Warrants | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | Pct Gain Last Week |
| BAC-WTA | $6.04 | $6.15 | $0.00 | 1.9% | 4.7% |
| AOD | $8.09 | $7.95 | $1.61 | 18.2% | 18.1% |
| FSC | $7.04 | $6.43 | $0.52 | -1.3% | -2.1% |
| CSQ | $9.32 | $10.00 | $1.90 | 27.7% | 27.7% |
| NTC | $12.05 | $12.53 | $1.20 | 13.9% | 14.0% |
| TGONF | $10.24 | $10.15 | $1.19 | 10.8% | 10.5% |
| HIG-WT | $21.24 | $37.75 | $0.00 | 77.8% | 80.9% |
| O | $22.62 | $50.03 | $17.51 | 198.6% | 197.0% |
| OIBAX | $5.04 | $5.60 | $2.13 | 53.3% | 53.3% |
| sjt | $11.04 | $5.43 | $0.17 | -49.2% | -49.0% |
| Totals | 10.5% | 10.9% |
Again, a bit of a down week. Hard to believe the BAC warrants were over $6.7 just a couple weeks ago. SJT continues to be deep in the red. I do think natural gas at some point will rebound and this stock goes back north of $10, but it may be a while. That being said, if it falls much further, I may add to my position.
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