Thursday, November 13, 2014

Wind Down of November 15 2013 Tranche

Wow, it is down to the wire. I just looked and my November 15 2013 tranche, which has one day to go is trailing the R3K by .02%.  I think that is essentially a tie. They are both up 14.3%. If I lose, it will break a four tranche winning streak.

In hindsight, I would have been better off just keeping the five stocks from November 2012. They were up a very nice 43.7% the first year and are up a solid 16.6% the second year (AAPL being the big winner, up 50%).  My 17 "rejects" are up 13.8%, so I did better than them. They are all over the place individually, MSN is up 114%, while RFIL and LQDT are each down about 55%.

I am pretty sue I have finalized my five stocks tomorrow, although I have been known to make last day audibles. I know JC will be unhappy as I picked two small cap stocks, perhaps I am swinging for the fences.

AWRE - this is a biometric small cap that I looked at this time last year. They ended up 17%. They are growing revenues very nicely and they have a great balance sheet (tons of cash). In past earnings call, the CEO a seemed very upbeat. Their earnings may be lumpy as about 50% of their earnings this past quarter came from patent sales. I cannot imagine that will happen regularly.

NHTC - this is my other small cap. They just had an absolute blowout quarter and I do not think investors are giving them enough credit for it. They are a MLM firm, so they do have that potential cloud. But they made 42 cents last quarter and revenue increased year over year by 125%.  As with any small cap, especially in this space, this play has plenty of risk.

IPCM - this is an interesting new stock that just hit the screen. This is a roll up of physicians. Logic suggests these should do quite well under Obamacare. They are growing about 10% a year (revenues).

FLR - an old standard from my AUgust 2013 tranche. They have fallen in sympathy with the entire construction segment. It was really a toss up to go with them, CBI or AGX.  Really this is a bet that things will be getting better as that should benefit construction firms.

VIAB - another standard from my aforementioned November 2012 tranche. They are down 11% since I sold them in November 2013. They just announced a very solid quarter and I am very comfortable adding them back into the mix.

My official reject list (which I will track) includes BRCD, IILG, PBI, NOC, ANIK, DEPO, TDC, GORO, DLX and COH.

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