Well they say that "make-up" sex is the best sex. It also seems to hold true for make-up rallies, as this one, post the "correction" has been blindingly fast. Since my closing low on 10/13, I am up a shade over 10%. I will bet if you include the intra-day low on 10/14, it would be 11%.
That does show why you need to be careful about even trying to time the markets. Decision Moose has been wrong again, I am starting to think he doesn't work any more. Since he said move to bonds, the bond market is down 1.5% while the SPY s up 6%.
This week has almost gotten me back to break-even. I am now down 28 basis points on the year. I am still trailing the R3K for the year by almost 10 points. That is a steep hill to climb. And frankly, it is more than GTAT - that is about 8 points. So I have not had a good year, the post IPO plays have also hurt me.
MFI Vs R3K
I mentioned the other day how well the MFI Index has done of late. I have two table to illustrate that:
| Annual | Inception to Date | |||
| Year | Russell | Russell ITD | MFI ITD | |
| 2006 | 11.40% | 15.03% | 11.40% | 15.03% |
| 2007 | 4.09% | -6.69% | 15.96% | 7.34% |
| 2008 | -37.05% | -37.97% | -27.00% | -33.42% |
| 2009 | 32.51% | 45.18% | -3.27% | -3.34% |
| 2010 | 18.38% | 22.77% | 14.50% | 18.67% |
| 2011 | -0.56% | -10.47% | 13.87% | 6.25% |
| 2012 | 16.43% | 9.70% | 32.57% | 16.56% |
| 2013 | 33.01% | 51.70% | 76.34% | 76.82% |
| 2014 | 9.68% | 11.80% | 93.40% | 97.69% |
So this shows my MFI Index by year and cumulative since 2006. Recall my index is the top 50 stocks greater than $100 million at the start of each year. So that basket is now up 11.8% this year while the R3K is 9.68%.
Then here is a table showing the 50 stocks in the index, how they have down for the year and how they have done in the 4th quarter:
| Stock | Start | 30-Sep | Current | YTD Change | Q4 Change | Shares |
| ATVI | 17.83 | 20.99 | 20.15 | 13.0% | -4.0% | 13.07 |
| MO | 38.39 | 47.38 | 49.78 | 29.7% | 5.1% | 6.07 |
| APOL | 27.32 | 25.15 | 28.66 | 4.9% | 14.0% | 8.53 |
| AAPL | 561.02 | 714.88 | 765.63 | 36.5% | 7.1% | 0.42 |
| AGX | 27.56 | 33.38 | 35.51 | 28.8% | 6.4% | 8.46 |
| BAH | 19.15 | 23.61 | 26.56 | 38.7% | 12.5% | 12.17 |
| BKE | 52.56 | 46.05 | 50.21 | -4.5% | 9.0% | 4.44 |
| CA | 33.65 | 28.69 | 29.81 | -11.4% | 3.9% | 6.93 |
| CACI | 73.22 | 71.27 | 82.29 | 12.4% | 15.5% | 3.18 |
| CHE | 76.62 | 103.52 | 103.98 | 35.7% | 0.4% | 3.04 |
| CRUS | 20.43 | 20.85 | 19.30 | -5.5% | -7.4% | 11.41 |
| CSCO | 22.43 | 25.53 | 25.02 | 11.5% | -2.0% | 10.39 |
| COH | 56.13 | 36.62 | 35.39 | -36.9% | -3.4% | 4.15 |
| CRTX | 9.49 | 9.50 | 9.50 | 0.1% | 0.0% | 24.56 |
| DLX | 52.19 | 56.01 | 61.65 | 18.1% | 10.1% | 4.47 |
| DHX | 7.25 | 8.38 | 9.97 | 37.5% | 19.0% | 32.15 |
| EBIX | 14.71 | 14.41 | 14.98 | 1.8% | 4.0% | 15.85 |
| EGL | 33.40 | 31.17 | 43.20 | 29.3% | 38.6% | 6.98 |
| GME | 49.26 | 42.19 | 43.75 | -11.2% | 3.7% | 4.73 |
| GTIV | 12.41 | 16.78 | 19.70 | 58.7% | 17.4% | 18.78 |
| GNI | 68.10 | 25.95 | 27.46 | -59.7% | 5.8% | 3.42 |
| HLF | 78.70 | 44.05 | 52.76 | -33.0% | 19.8% | 2.96 |
| IQNT | 11.41 | 12.60 | 17.13 | 50.1% | 36.0% | 20.43 |
| ESI | 33.58 | 4.29 | 10.11 | -69.9% | 135.7% | 6.94 |
| LPS | 37.38 | 37.30 | 37.30 | -0.2% | 0.0% | 6.24 |
| LQDT | 22.66 | 13.75 | 12.78 | -43.6% | -7.1% | 10.29 |
| LO | 50.68 | 61.76 | 63.35 | 25.0% | 2.6% | 4.60 |
| MSFT | 37.41 | 47.20 | 47.79 | 27.7% | 1.3% | 6.23 |
| MYGN | 20.98 | 38.57 | 39.49 | 88.2% | 2.4% | 11.11 |
| NATR | 17.32 | 16.63 | 16.70 | -3.6% | 0.4% | 13.46 |
| NOC | 114.61 | 133.77 | 139.97 | 22.1% | 4.6% | 2.03 |
| PDLI | 8.44 | 7.92 | 8.98 | 6.4% | 0.0% | 27.62 |
| PFMT | 10.30 | 8.08 | 8.63 | -16.2% | 6.8% | 22.63 |
| PETS | 16.63 | 14.11 | 13.72 | -17.5% | -2.8% | 14.02 |
| PRSC | 25.72 | 48.38 | 44.18 | 71.8% | -8.7% | 9.06 |
| QCOR | 54.45 | 94.50 | 94.50 | 73.6% | 0.0% | 4.28 |
| RTN | 90.70 | 102.83 | 105.70 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 2.57 |
| RAI | 49.99 | 60.34 | 64.92 | 29.9% | 7.6% | 4.66 |
| RPXC | 16.90 | 13.73 | 14.05 | -16.9% | 2.3% | 13.79 |
| SAIC | 33.07 | 45.07 | 50.03 | 51.3% | 11.0% | 7.05 |
| SWHC | 13.49 | 9.44 | 10.16 | -24.7% | 7.6% | 17.28 |
| STRA | 34.47 | 59.88 | 73.19 | 112.3% | 22.2% | 6.76 |
| RGR | 73.09 | 50.17 | 43.16 | -40.9% | -14.0% | 3.19 |
| UIS | 33.57 | 23.41 | 25.64 | -23.6% | 9.5% | 6.94 |
| UNTD | 13.76 | 10.95 | 11.22 | -18.5% | 2.5% | 16.94 |
| SPOK | 14.28 | 13.39 | 16.62 | 16.4% | 24.1% | 16.32 |
| USNA | 75.58 | 73.66 | 113.98 | 50.8% | 54.7% | 3.08 |
| VCI | 34.25 | 34.02 | 34.02 | -0.7% | 0.0% | 6.81 |
| VGR | 16.37 | 22.98 | 24.64 | 50.5% | 7.2% | 14.24 |
| WTW | 32.93 | 27.44 | 26.05 | -20.9% | -5.1% | 7.08 |
| Total | 17,682 | 18,372 | 19,769 | 11.8% | 7.6% |
The 7.6% pop since 9/30 is pretty eye-popping!
My MFI Tranches
I have also had some pick up in my MFI the past few weeks. Sadly nowhere near the index gain if 7.6% for October though.
| 11/15/13 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| AVG | $17.22 | $17.92 | $0.00 | 4.1% | 13.2% |
| $17.71 | $19.95 | $0.20 | 13.8% | 13.2% | |
| GA | $9.04 | $11.90 | $0.23 | 34.2% | 13.2% |
| RPXC | $17.04 | $14.05 | $0.00 | -17.5% | 13.2% |
| $48.01 | $68.43 | $0.00 | 42.5% | 13.2% | |
| Totals | 15.4% | 13.2% | |||
| 2/1/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| $17.13 | $19.95 | $0.20 | 17.6% | 13.3% | |
| $61.47 | $79.15 | $1.40 | 31.0% | 13.3% | |
| RPXC | $16.22 | $14.05 | $0.00 | -13.4% | 13.3% |
| $69.55 | $94.14 | $0.83 | 36.5% | 13.3% | |
| WNR | $39.11 | $45.59 | $0.78 | 18.6% | 13.3% |
| Totals | 18.1% | 13.3% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| AVG | $19.57 | $17.92 | $0.00 | -8.4% | 7.8% |
| CA | $29.54 | $29.06 | $0.50 | 0.1% | 7.8% |
| $22.79 | $24.47 | $0.38 | 9.1% | 7.8% | |
| NSR | $25.82 | $26.41 | $0.00 | 2.3% | 7.8% |
| $28.78 | $30.97 | $0.46 | 9.2% | 7.8% | |
| Totals | 2.4% | 7.8% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $24.40 | $24.47 | $0.19 | 1.1% | 3.2% | |
| AGX | $36.71 | $34.81 | $0.70 | -3.3% | 3.2% |
| ITRN | $21.32 | $20.49 | $0.19 | -3.0% | 3.2% |
| $9.34 | $10.73 | $0.04 | 15.3% | 3.2% | |
| $58.25 | $54.64 | $0.07 | -6.1% | 3.2% | |
| Totals | 0.8% | 3.2% | |||
| Category/Tranche | August | November | February | May | Total |
| Initial Investment | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 25,000 | 100,000 |
| Current Tranche | 0.8% | 15.4% | 18.1% | 2.4% | 9.2% |
| Previous Tranche | 41.4% | 43.7% | 78.3% | 33.0% | 49.3% |
| Tranche -2 | 14.1% | - | - | - | 3.5% |
| MFI Overall Gain | 62.6% | 65.9% | 110.5% | 36.3% | 68.8% |
| Current Balance | 40,651 | 41,474 | 52,620 | 34,065 | 168,810 |
| R3K Current Tranche | 3.2% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 7.8% | 9.4% |
| R3K Overall Gain | 50.5% | 54.8% | 37.2% | 28.1% | 42.7% |
| R3K Balance | 37,632 | 38,693 | 34,305 | 32,036 | 142,666 |
| Annualized IRR | 24.5% | 29.4% | 53.0% | 23.1% | 32.9% |
| Date | Differential | Value |
| -2.20% | 99,765 | |
| -1.78% | 102,798 | |
| -2.26% | 102,594 | |
| -2.23% | 102,881 | |
| -0.43% | 106,804 | |
| 2.00% | 110,423 | |
| 4.75% | 115,831 | |
| 4.29% | 114,888 | |
| 6.91% | 124,799 | |
| 10.46% | 124,536 | |
| 19.67% | 138,655 | |
| 19.75% | 143,514 | |
| 23.70% | 150,105 | |
| 26.63% | 157,138 | |
| 24.70% | 150,619 | |
| 25.66% | 158,116 | |
| 30.38% | 162,991 | |
| 29.65% | 162,428 | |
| 31.44% | 167,001 | |
| 39.23% | 177,971 | |
| 31.13% | 167,054 | |
| 35.90% | 177,792 | |
| 29.38% | 168,321 | |
| Current | 26.14% | 168,810 |
So you can see that for October I am basically flat. Poor earnings by SYNA, RPXC and RCII hurt to some extent. The 11/15 tranche just has two weeks to run and has about a 2 point lead. I think AVG and ATVI will announce in the interim, so their results will likely determine whether I win or lose.
I am still noodling around my five new stocks for 11/15. I may put out a post on that this weekend.
MFI Big Dividend
If I did one smart thing this year (debatable), it was my selling of a bunch of my positions in September and then starting up the Big Dividend MFI approach. The stocks I sold are still down about 14.6% (I did not sell because I knew they were losers) and my new tranche is up over 9%! This goes back to my commentary on the power of a simple formula. I will continue my transition over the next 9 months.
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $26.35 | $0.00 | 12.0% | 2.7% |
| $45.55 | $49.33 | $0.22 | 8.8% | 2.7% | |
| CA | $27.87 | $29.06 | $0.00 | 4.3% | 2.7% |
| $41.70 | $42.76 | $0.00 | 2.5% | 2.7% | |
| $44.56 | $52.83 | $0.00 | 18.6% | 2.7% | |
| Totals | 9.2% | 2.7% |
So while NUS has not matched USNA (recall it was up 54% in October), it is a stock with some explosive potential. Of course I have been lucky as well as the stocks I did not pick (due to randomness) are down 5.6%. Interestingly, people will recall in my "rules" I did allow myself to remove one stock. I picked PDLI. It is up 14% since then. Again, "an expert using a simple formula will under-perform just the simple formula". (Not that I am an expert, but a novice will underperform by even more).
Dividend Portfolio
I was disappointed with CCUR this week. I did put it out there to be sold, but was a bit agressive on my limit order.
| Stock | Shares | Avg Cost | Current Price | Dividends Received | Pct Change | R3K Change | Diff |
| AOD | 14,281 | 8.04 | 8.67 | 13,326.21 | 19.5% | 23.8% | -4.3% |
| 9,400 | 7.20 | 7.10 | - | -1.4% | 5.1% | -6.5% | |
| CSQ | 8,665 | 9.04 | 11.82 | 15,421.60 | 50.5% | 47.5% | 3.0% |
| EXETF | 6,000 | 7.82 | 7.20 | 480.00 | -6.9% | 0.0% | -6.9% |
| KMF | 2,000 | 34.07 | 37.74 | - | 10.8% | 8.3% | 2.5% |
| NADL | 9,572 | 9.11 | 6.19 | 2,727.85 | -28.9% | 3.6% | -32.5% |
| NTC | 6,847 | 12.02 | 12.58 | 3,450.33 | 8.9% | 8.2% | 0.7% |
| O | 603 | 21.12 | 46.03 | 9,791.02 | 194.9% | 119.1% | 75.7% |
| 4,167 | 5.01 | 6.02 | 8,381.18 | 60.3% | 129.7% | -69.4% | |
| 10,000 | 4.86 | 4.87 | - | 0.2% | 3.1% | -2.9% | |
| TCMCF | 4,903 | 13.89 | 10.00 | 1,991.00 | -25.1% | 1.1% | -26.2% |
| TGONF | 7,000 | 10.27 | 10.32 | 3,452.50 | 5.3% | 22.1% | -16.9% |
| 823 | 144.82 | 141.08 | 1,555.00 | -1.3% | 4.2% | -5.5% | |
| Total Open | 60,577 | 7.9% | 16.8% | -8.9% | |||
| Closed | 11.6% | 10.5% | 1.1% | ||||
| Combined | 11.0% | 11.4% | -0.4% | ||||
| Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 | 15.1% | ||||||
| 2014 Gain | -1.1% | ||||||
Wow, this portfolio has really stunk. My open positions are trailing the benchmarks by 8.9 points and I am down 1.1% for the year. Really been hurt by resource plays, so far PGN, NADL, TCMCF and TNH have been laggards. Only my closed end funds are helping me stay close (AOD, CSQ, KMF & NTC). I am creating a lot of dividend income (table below with my multiplier):
| Stock | Shares | Ann Dividend / Share | Yield | Projected Dividend | Worth |
| AOD | 14,281 | 0.68 | 7.8% | 9,682 | 123,813 |
| CCUR | 9,400 | 0.48 | 6.8% | 4,512 | 66,740 |
| CSQ | 8,665 | 1.00 | 8.5% | 8,665 | 102,425 |
| EXETF | 6,000 | 0.48 | 6.7% | 2,880 | 43,224 |
| KMF | 2,000 | 1.95 | 5.2% | 3,900 | 75,480 |
| NADL | 9,572 | 0.96 | 15.5% | 9,190 | 59,254 |
| NTC | 6,847 | 0.68 | 5.4% | 4,684 | 86,141 |
| O | 603 | 2.17 | 4.7% | 1,308 | 27,753 |
| OIBAX | 4,167 | 0.29 | 4.8% | 1,208 | 25,086 |
| PGN | 10,000 | 0.50 | 10.3% | 5,000 | 48,700 |
| TCMCF | 4,903 | 1.60 | 16.0% | 7,845 | 49,030 |
| TGONF | 7,000 | 0.62 | 6.0% | 4,340 | 72,240 |
| TNH | 823 | 12.04 | 8.5% | 9,909 | 116,110 |
| Total | 8.2% | 73,123 | 895,996 |
I will be patient, but the under-performance is more than a bit frustrating.
Discretionary
Every now and then, even a blind squirrel finds an acorn. I found one with VEC. It is my second largest holding and it is up 20% since I bought a couple of weeks ago:
| Stock | Shares | Avg Cost | Current Price | Pct Change | R3K Change | Diff |
| AGX | 190 | 36.71 | 34.81 | -5.2% | 2.8% | -7.9% |
| BAC-WTA | 12,000 | 6.05 | 7.15 | 18.1% | 14.5% | 3.7% |
| GNW | 13,880 | 10.08 | 13.99 | 38.8% | 24.9% | 13.9% |
| HIG-WT | 1,650 | 21.24 | 31.23 | 47.1% | 22.2% | 24.8% |
| VEC | 7,000 | 20.19 | 24.44 | 21.0% | 6.0% | 15.0% |
| Total Open | 28.6% | 15.6% | 13.0% | |||
| Closed | 0.7% | 1.3% | -0.6% | |||
| Combined | 2.4% | 2.2% | 0.2% | |||
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