Sunday, November 02, 2014

Looking For A Few Good Stocks

Blustery late fall day here in Southern New England.  I suspect a lot of leaves will be separated from their trees today.  As the calendar flips to November, that means I have less than two weeks until I need five new stocks for my next MFI tranche.  Here is the expiring tranche:

11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $17.92 $0.00 4.1% 13.2%
ATVI $17.71 $19.95 $0.20 13.8% 13.2%
GA $9.04 $11.90 $0.23 34.2% 13.2%
RPXC $17.04 $14.05 $0.00 -17.5% 13.2%
SYNA $48.01 $68.43 $0.00 42.5% 13.2%
Totals 15.4% 13.2%

GA is long sold, so it is fixed at the 34% gain.  A solid set of stocks, hard to be upset with 15.4% - although ATVI and SYNA have come down quite a bit from their highs.  Just for yucks, here is where the tranche stood at Labor Day:

11/15/13 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AVG $17.22 $17.46 $0.00 1.4% 12.5%
ATVI $17.71 $23.95 $0.20 36.3% 12.5%
GA $9.04 $11.90 $0.23 34.2% 12.5%
RPXC $17.04 $15.10 $0.00 -11.4% 12.5%
SYNA $48.01 $80.64 $0.00 68.0% 12.5%
Totals 25.7% 12.5%

Ah, for a time machine for Stock investors!

Looking at the official website, here are stocks that I am currently interested in:

Index Company Ticker  Mkt Cap 
1 Anika Therapeutics Inc ANIK                  574
2 Argan Inc AGX                  503
3 Block (H&R) Inc HRB              8,888
4 Brocade Communications Systems Inc BRCD              4,642
5 Coach Inc COH              9,455
6 DepoMed Inc. DEPO                  900
7 Exelis Inc XLS              3,362
8 Fluor Corp FLR            10,384
9 Interval Leisure Group Inc IILG              1,202
10 Ituran Location and Control Ltd ITRN                  430
11 King Digital Entertainment plc KING              3,645
12 Myriad Genetics Inc MYGN              3,225
13 Natural Health Trends Corp NHTC                  121
14 Northrop Grumman Corp NOC            28,030
15 Omnicom Group Inc. OMC            17,834
16 Oracle Corp ORCL          190,213
17 Pitney Bowes Inc. PBI              4,963
18 Raytheon Co. RTN            31,995
19 Viacom Inc VIAB            30,838

 Then a few others to add: AWRE, TPUB and PERI.  So 20 odd stocks to consider - of course what happens between now and 11/15 also matters.

You will note a couple themes, I do have three defense companies (RTN, XLS and NOC) on the list. I have two construction companies, FLR & AGX. I have three companies in healthcare area (ANIK, DEPO and MYGN).

I am still inclined to go with larger companies that pay a dividend.  If I am spit-balling ideas:

ANIK - interesting company. They just announced earnings this week. They were solid, but they did say the upcoming quarter would be lower than expected revenues, but longer term things are fin. So they sold off a bit on Friday. I like this company. They are growing, not too expensive and have a solid balance sheet. Definitely make the next round.

AGX - I have owned them for a couple years now.  Construction company with a specialty focus on power plants.  They had a great run up and have now pulled back a bit.  Despite run up, still pretty cheap. Solid balance sheet and they pay a special dividend once a year or so. Definitely make the next round.

HRB - We all know H&R Block. Solid dividend and franchise.  Some worry about people doing taxes with software as opposed to an expert. Not expensive, but not exactly cheap. I would consider this a "safe" play.  While I certainly do not think this is a "bad" pick, I believe I will have better options so I will take a pass.

BRCD - I bought these guys in my August tranche and I still really like them (they are up 15% for me).  Great balance sheet, they also have a modest dividend. Their issue, as with many of the "old tech" companies is they are a bit stagnant in growth. I think that knocks them out unless they pullback in next two weeks.

COH - handbags etc, this is a company that just keeps dropping. You have to think at some point they hit bottom. The consumer is starting to do better, gas prices are dropping - but my wife tells me Coach is not hip any more.  I think i have to bench Coach.

DEPO - this stock seems to just have a couple of drugs.  Analysts are predicting a decline in revenues and earnings.  I will check out their earnings call next week, but unless I get better visibility on earnings this is a non starter.

XLS - defense contractor. One of the more "expensive" stocks on my list. I do think they are a potential acquisition target. But with recent spin off of VEC, I think they are even more expensive than I think, so I will pass.

FLR - I owned them in My August 2013 tranche.  They have sold off from $73 to $66 since then.  They look pretty darned reasonable at $66, so they make the next round.

IILG - This looks like a company perhaps in the time share industry. Not super cheap, moderate growth, balance sheet is mostly goodwill.  Not too interested.

ITRN - Israel company that I own in my August tranche. They seemed interesting to me in August and have dropped three percent.  I may double up.

So far ANIK, AGX, FLR and ITRN. More to follow.

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