Another month has zipped by. As my faithful readers know, I have been tracking the Magic Formula Stocks as described by Joel Greenblatt in The Little Book That Beats the Stock Market since January 2006. Every month I take the top 50 stocks over $100m market cap from his website and track how that portfolio of stocks fares versus the Russell 3000 for the next 12 months. It has been an uphill struggle as the tracking portfolios have under-performed, driven in part by Chinese reverse merger fiascos, for-profit education stocks and home health care stocks all being proverbial albatrosses.
Onward
Fearless readers will recall we had a 29 month "losing streak".. Then we had a 13 month winning streak. I am disheartened to report that that we appear to be starting a new losing streak, as we lost for fourth straight month.. :( It wasn't close, up 11.8% versus 15.4% for R3K. Here are the 50 stocks in descending performance order:
| Stock | Initial Price | End Price | Percent Change | 52 week low | Mkt Cap |
| 19.52 | 35.25 | 80.6% | 18.62 | 1,450 | |
| 12.08 | 19.70 | 63.1% | 7.35 | 378 | |
| BAH | 16.35 | 26.35 | 61.2% | 16.61 | 2,719 |
| AGX | 21.97 | 34.81 | 58.4% | 20.55 | 315 |
| IQNT | 10.63 | 16.83 | 58.3% | 9.80 | 353 |
| 25.31 | 39.49 | 56.0% | 20.02 | 2,229 | |
| 47.92 | 73.19 | 52.7% | 33.51 | 521 | |
| 44.82 | 68.43 | 52.7% | 44.16 | 1,456 | |
| CHE | 69.13 | 103.36 | 49.5% | 66.89 | 1,295 |
| 73.48 | 108.00 | 47.0% | 70.51 | 477,802 | |
| 77.62 | 113.98 | 46.8% | 55.01 | 1,055 | |
| 34.76 | 49.43 | 42.2% | 26.25 | 1,454 | |
| MO | 34.52 | 48.34 | 40.0% | 33.80 | 72,536 |
| 34.73 | 46.95 | 35.2% | 34.63 | 298,203 | |
| 78.01 | 103.88 | 33.2% | 82.46 | 25,787 | |
| 18.88 | 24.74 | 31.0% | 21.01 | 3,925 | |
| 11.30 | 14.75 | 30.5% | 11.32 | 424 | |
| 106.02 | 137.96 | 30.1% | 106.67 | 24,248 | |
| LO | 47.46 | 61.50 | 29.6% | 46.48 | 18,299 |
| 47.21 | 60.80 | 28.8% | 44.64 | 2,436 | |
| 27.12 | 34.00 | 25.4% | N/A | 1,058 | |
| 32.75 | 39.05 | 19.2% | 33.22 | 165,419 | |
| CACI | 70.45 | 82.29 | 16.8% | 67.01 | 1,636 |
| 17.17 | 19.95 | 16.2% | 16.06 | 11,965 | |
| DHX | 8.73 | 9.97 | 14.2% | 6.50 | 516 |
| CSCO | 21.77 | 24.47 | 12.4% | 20.22 | 121,010 |
| BKE | 44.27 | 49.33 | 11.4% | 41.45 | 2,288 |
| LPS | 33.96 | 37.30 | 9.8% | N/A | 2,905 |
| SPOK | 14.79 | 16.24 | 9.8% | 12.58 | 328 |
| 7.89 | 8.53 | 8.1% | 7.22 | 1,426 | |
| 27.63 | 28.66 | 3.7% | 23.30 | 3,125 | |
| CRTX | 9.46 | 9.48 | 0.2% | 7.77 | 251 |
| 18.76 | 18.60 | -0.9% | 17.81 | 275 | |
| VG | 3.54 | 3.48 | -1.7% | 3.08 | 747 |
| SWHC | 10.62 | 10.16 | -4.3% | 9.03 | 669 |
| CA | 30.39 | 29.06 | -4.4% | 25.25 | 14,036 |
| PETS | 13.94 | 13.21 | -5.2% | 12.07 | 300 |
| 16.95 | 14.90 | -12.1% | 12.91 | 308 | |
| PFMT | 9.93 | 8.63 | -13.1% | 7.11 | 476 |
| RPXC | 17.08 | 14.05 | -17.7% | 13.25 | 924 |
| HLF | 65.76 | 52.46 | -20.2% | 38.63 | 6,836 |
| 25.04 | 19.30 | -22.9% | 16.81 | 1,589 | |
| 48.39 | 34.38 | -29.0% | 33.25 | 13,889 | |
| 60.84 | 41.68 | -31.5% | 40.87 | 1,216 | |
| 38.83 | 26.05 | -32.9% | 19.09 | 2,181 | |
| LQDT | 25.82 | 12.78 | -50.5% | 11.27 | 818 |
| INTX | 8.24 | 4.00 | -51.5% | 3.32 | 157 |
| CREG | 2.66 | 1.23 | -53.8% | 0.78 | 134 |
| 48.93 | 20.11 | -58.9% | 16.80 | 106 | |
| 40.75 | 10.11 | -75.2% | 3.66 | 952 |
I did find another site that has been tracking since 2006 this week. It uses a different approach, just 5 stocks picked randomly every quarter. They have had better results than me (TrackJGreenblatt's Stock Picks). I found it very interesting and would encourage people to take a looksee.
CNVR (fka VCLK) was number one, I know I thought about buying GTIV (#2) a half-dozen times. ESI, really took a nose dive recently. GNI has been a real lead ("iron-ore") weight - as has weight watchers (too easy).
Here is a listing of every portfolio I have tracked:
| Date | R3K | Lead | |
| 16.0% | 10.9% | 1 | |
| 21.2% | 14.6% | 1 | |
| 13.0% | 9.6% | 1 | |
| 10.3% | 12.1% | 0 | |
| 20.4% | 18.6% | 1 | |
| 29.2% | 23.3% | 1 | |
| 22.4% | 20.0% | 1 | |
| 19.7% | 17.3% | 1 | |
| 13.0% | 13.3% | 0 | |
| 12.7% | 14.6% | 0 | |
| 10.3% | 12.0% | 0 | |
| -0.3% | 4.8% | 0 | |
| -6.9% | 3.4% | 0 | |
| -10.2% | -6.6% | 0 | |
| -3.7% | -1.0% | 0 | |
| -9.8% | -5.5% | 0 | |
| -10.9% | -5.0% | 0 | |
| -11.5% | -6.3% | 0 | |
| -30.0% | -15.6% | 0 | |
| -19.9% | -11.5% | 0 | |
| -12.5% | -8.7% | 0 | |
| -19.0% | -18.2% | 0 | |
| -40.4% | -34.3% | 0 | |
| -40.1% | -38.3% | 0 | |
| -36.3% | -40.0% | 1 | |
| -36.4% | -35.9% | 0 | |
| -51.7% | -41.5% | 0 | |
| -40.9% | -36.8% | 0 | |
| -25.6% | -31.0% | 1 | |
| -22.2% | -33.6% | 1 | |
| -11.7% | -25.3% | 1 | |
| -10.5% | -20.9% | 1 | |
| -13.8% | -17.9% | 1 | |
| -4.3% | -10.0% | 1 | |
| 18.7% | 13.9% | 1 | |
| 50.9% | 27.7% | 1 | |
| 48.9% | 32.3% | 1 | |
| 59.3% | 36.4% | 1 | |
| 92.8% | 55.6% | 1 | |
| 85.8% | 48.1% | 1 | |
| 69.7% | 45.8% | 1 | |
| 31.8% | 22.8% | 1 | |
| 21.3% | 24.0% | 0 | |
| 19.5% | 15.9% | 1 | |
| 7.4% | 8.8% | 0 | |
| 12.6% | 12.4% | 1 | |
| 22.7% | 18.3% | 1 | |
| 24.3% | 13.6% | 1 | |
| 23.7% | 18.1% | 1 | |
| 19.0% | 20.6% | 0 | |
| 18.6% | 23.6% | 0 | |
| 10.0% | 15.4% | 0 | |
| 7.1% | 11.4% | 0 | |
| 19.3% | 25.4% | 0 | |
| 16.7% | 25.7% | 0 | |
| 5.4% | 20.1% | 0 | |
| 7.3% | 10.1% | 0 | |
| -4.3% | 0.3% | 0 | |
| -2.9% | 10.4% | 0 | |
| -8.5% | 1.4% | 0 | |
| -11.4% | 0.1% | 0 | |
| -7.6% | 4.9% | 0 | |
| -5.5% | 5.0% | 0 | |
| -4.4% | 7.4% | 0 | |
| -16.0% | 3.2% | 0 | |
| -12.0% | -0.4% | 0 | |
| -9.5% | 5.0% | 0 | |
| -4.3% | 8.1% | 0 | |
| 12.0% | 21.6% | 0 | |
| 23.5% | 29.6% | 0 | |
| 0.4% | 11.5% | 0 | |
| 13.9% | 24.0% | 0 | |
| 9.9% | 15.9% | 0 | |
| 7.4% | 16.6% | 0 | |
| 7.8% | 13.3% | 0 | |
| 9.1% | 15.2% | 0 | |
| 10.5% | 15.3% | 0 | |
| 26.5% | 27.5% | 0 | |
| 26.1% | 24.6% | 1 | |
| 30.4% | 25.7% | 1 | |
| 26.0% | 19.8% | 1 | |
| 39.3% | 22.1% | 1 | |
| 48.3% | 28.9% | 1 | |
| 45.7% | 32.1% | 1 | |
| 52.3% | 33.0% | 1 | |
| 39.5% | 22.0% | 1 | |
| 46.5% | 26.4% | 1 | |
| 40.1% | 21.2% | 1 | |
| 35.0% | 20.5% | 1 | |
| 20.4% | 19.2% | 1 | |
| 26.9% | 24.1% | 1 | |
| 17.8% | 19.0% | 0 | |
| 17.5% | 24.6% | 0 | |
| 12.9% | 17.7% | 0 | |
| 11.8% | 15.4% | 0 | |
| 10.9% | 12.8% | 0 | |
| 12.4% | 9.7% | 1 | |
| 15.7% | 13.4% | 1 | |
| 9.9% | 8.2% | 1 | |
| 3.7% | 8.7% | 0 | |
| 2.4% | 8.6% | 0 | |
| 3.2% | 5.2% | 0 | |
| -0.3% | 2.8% | 0 | |
| 2.2% | 2.3% | 0 | |
| 0.4% | 0.5% | 0 | |
| 8.3% | 2.1% | 1 | |
| Average | 9.9% | 9.3% | 0 |
As noted, we recently ended a 13 month winning streak, which was proceeded by 29 straight months of losses! (that is hard to do... it ain't random). There is some improvement as now only the 7 of the 11 newest portfolios are all trailing. Still some time to go.
Subsets
I also keep 2 subsets of the larger portfolios: (1) dividend stocks (those with a yield per Yahoo of at least 2.6%) and (2) new stocks (those new to the tracking portfolios in past 12 months. The dividend portfolio was average (relatively), up about 15.4%. The new portfolio was solid, up 17.6% - as SYNA (which I bought) was up 52.6%. Finally, I like to track cash as it is more "honest" than percentages as if you go up by 25% and then down by 25%, that is a different result than up by 5% then down by 5%. So I track what you would have today if you had spread $100,000 over the first twelve portfolios evenly.
| Category | Value |
| Total | 183,479 |
| Total Russell 3K | 187,808 |
| New | 179,591 |
| Dividend | 417,089 |
You can see dividends continue to do well, a big reason for my movement towards dividend stocks of late. Have a great weekend everyone!
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