16 degrees out there as I type. I actually went to our final High School football game of the year last night. It was quite cold on those metal bleachers.
It was a better week for my stocks (finally). My dividend portfolio continues to be a mess as NADL has been a disaster-investment so far. But I did make some headway towards the psychological break-even point this past week and am now down 3.1% on the year. GNW, GTAT and LMNS continue to be the albatrosses of 2014 for me. It will be nice to get to 2015 with a clean slate. Mistakes were made.
MFI Select Portfolio
As I mentioned briefly yesterday, my May and August tranches, which have both been pretty much laggards since the opening bell, have really made some headway against the benchmark. One more good week and they could both go ahead. Then my newest tranche, 11/15/14 that I started a week ago is off to a terrific start, almost +5% in week 1.
| 2/1/14 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| $17.13 | $21.17 | $0.20 | 24.8% | 15.8% | |
| $61.47 | $81.52 | $1.90 | 35.7% | 15.8% | |
| RPXC | $16.22 | $13.25 | $0.00 | -18.3% | 15.8% |
| $69.55 | $100.83 | $0.83 | 46.2% | 15.8% | |
| WNR | $39.11 | $43.87 | $1.04 | 14.8% | 15.8% |
| Totals | 20.6% | 15.8% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| AVG | $19.57 | $19.80 | $0.00 | 1.2% | 10.1% |
| CA | $29.54 | $30.63 | $0.75 | 6.2% | 10.1% |
| $22.79 | $26.88 | $0.38 | 19.6% | 10.1% | |
| NSR | $25.82 | $27.25 | $0.00 | 5.6% | 10.1% |
| $28.78 | $32.72 | $0.46 | 15.3% | 10.1% | |
| Totals | 9.6% | 10.1% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $24.40 | $26.88 | $0.19 | 10.9% | 5.5% | |
| AGX | $36.71 | $33.07 | $0.70 | -8.0% | 5.5% |
| ITRN | $21.32 | $21.25 | $0.19 | 0.5% | 5.5% |
| $9.34 | $11.50 | $0.04 | 23.6% | 5.5% | |
| $58.25 | $57.09 | $0.07 | -1.9% | 5.5% | |
| Totals | 5.0% | 5.5% | |||
| Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain | |
| $64.80 | $69.24 | $0.00 | 6.9% | 1.1% | |
| IPCM | $38.45 | $42.78 | $0.00 | 11.3% | 1.1% |
| VIAB | $72.29 | $73.71 | $0.00 | 2.0% | 1.1% |
| NHTC | $12.19 | $12.72 | $0.00 | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| $4.40 | $4.40 | $0.00 | 0.0% | 1.1% | |
| Totals | 4.9% | 1.1% |
Looking at these results, they are so much better than my discretionary and dividend results - this is convincing me to be channeling more and more of my overall portfolio into MFI. It has taken 8+ years, but I am really becoming convinced.
On a side note, as people may know I have a great data base of historical things MFI as I have been doing this blog thing since 2006 and have captured 50 stocks every month from the screens and tracked their performance. I have done some work thinking about what characteristics do better (700M market cap and up and stocks that pay dividends); but at some point I do want to take that analysis to the next level. I am taking some great courses on Coursera to learn the tools to dig deeper. It may still be a few years of additional data gathering plus retirement, but I do plan on really digging in someday.
Here are some stats on how the MFI select portfolio has done versus the benchmark month by month. You can see that November has been very strong.
| Date | Differential | Value |
| -2.20% | 99,765 | |
| -1.78% | 102,798 | |
| -2.26% | 102,594 | |
| -2.23% | 102,881 | |
| -0.43% | 106,804 | |
| 2.00% | 110,423 | |
| 4.75% | 115,831 | |
| 4.29% | 114,888 | |
| 6.91% | 124,799 | |
| 10.46% | 124,536 | |
| 19.67% | 138,655 | |
| 19.75% | 143,514 | |
| 23.70% | 150,105 | |
| 26.63% | 157,138 | |
| 24.70% | 150,619 | |
| 25.66% | 158,116 | |
| 30.38% | 162,991 | |
| 29.65% | 162,428 | |
| 31.44% | 167,001 | |
| 39.23% | 177,971 | |
| 31.13% | 167,054 | |
| 35.90% | 177,792 | |
| 29.38% | 168,321 | |
| 26.14% | 168,810 | |
| Current | 29.78% | 175,590 |
MFI Simple Formula
This is my new MFI initiative started 9/30. It was doing pretty solidly, but hit a speed bump yesterday with poor GME earnings. We know many MFI stokcs have "hair" on them, so you have to think about the entire portfolio rather than individual stocks.
| 10/1/2014 Stocks | Start | Current | Dividend | Pct Gain | R3K Gain |
| BAH | $23.52 | $26.04 | $0.11 | 11.2% | 5.0% |
| $45.55 | $50.55 | $0.22 | 11.5% | 5.0% | |
| CA | $27.87 | $30.63 | $0.25 | 10.8% | 5.0% |
| $41.70 | $37.86 | $0.33 | -8.4% | 5.0% | |
| $44.56 | $41.16 | $0.35 | -6.9% | 5.0% | |
| Totals | 3.6% | 5.0% |
Definitely hurt by NUS and GME, both having poor earnings out of the chute. Many months to go. BKE had good earnings. The 5 stocks that didn't get picked by Mr Random are up 4.6%, so now fate has not been kind. But it is a marathon, not a sprint (KING is the best, up 29% since 9/30).
Dividend Portfolio
| Stock | Shares | Avg Cost | Current Price | Dividends Received | Pct Change | R3K Change | Diff |
| AOD | 14,281 | 8.04 | 8.67 | 14,133.07 | 20.2% | 26.5% | -6.3% |
| CSQ | 8,665 | 9.04 | 11.91 | 16,129.75 | 52.4% | 50.8% | 1.6% |
| KMF | 2,000 | 34.07 | 37.93 | - | 11.3% | 10.7% | 0.7% |
| NADL | 9,572 | 9.11 | 3.48 | 2,727.85 | -58.7% | 5.9% | -64.5% |
| NTC | 6,879 | 12.02 | 12.52 | 3,842.42 | 8.8% | 10.5% | -1.7% |
| O | 603 | 21.12 | 45.96 | 9,791.02 | 194.6% | 124.0% | 70.6% |
| 4,167 | 5.01 | 6.01 | 8,445.49 | 60.5% | 134.8% | -74.3% | |
| PBF | 3,000 | 26.41 | 29.39 | - | 11.3% | 1.1% | 10.2% |
| 10,000 | 4.86 | 5.10 | 1,250.00 | 7.5% | 5.3% | 2.2% | |
| TCMCF | 4,903 | 13.89 | 10.26 | 1,991.00 | -23.2% | 3.4% | -26.6% |
| TGONF | 7,000 | 10.27 | 10.22 | 4,537.50 | 5.8% | 24.8% | -19.0% |
| 823 | 144.82 | 125.72 | 3,019.94 | -10.7% | 6.5% | -17.2% | |
| Total Open | 65,868 | 6.3% | 19.5% | -13.2% | |||
| Closed | 11.1% | 10.5% | 0.6% | ||||
| Combined | 10.4% | 11.8% | -1.4% | ||||
| Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 | 14.1% | ||||||
| 2014 Gain | -4.5% | ||||||
Wow, I am stunned at how bad this is. NADL is down 59%. TCMCF is down 23%. TNH is down 11%. Pretty discouraging. I am not giving up, but I am not happy either.
Discretionary Portfolio
| Stock | Shares | Avg Cost | Current Price | Pct Change | R3K Change | Diff |
| AGX | 190 | 36.71 | 33.07 | -9.9% | 5.0% | -14.9% |
| BAC-WTA | 12,000 | 6.05 | 7.10 | 17.3% | 17.0% | 0.3% |
| 3,000 | 20.65 | 21.14 | 2.4% | 0.0% | 2.4% | |
| GNW | 13,880 | 10.08 | 9.56 | -5.1% | 27.6% | -32.8% |
| 2,000 | 49.07 | 50.63 | 3.2% | 0.5% | 2.7% | |
| HIG-WT | 1,650 | 21.24 | 33.08 | 55.8% | 24.9% | 30.8% |
| Total Open | 7.0% | 14.6% | -7.7% | |||
| Closed | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.0% | |||
| Combined | 1.8% | 2.3% | -0.5% | |||
While GNW continues to be the drag here, and the largest position, you will note I did add HAL and EYES this week. probably not long term holds, though HAL seems very cheap.
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3 comments:
Marsh,
My 5 simple formula started off with -5% but I am +7% even with RGR. Looks like I will get your NUS and GME in December!
If I had your data I would get my 5 grandchildren on the payroll and start a study with them on the large caps with dividends. Looking back 8 years will yield some important data. I know this is hard with mergers, spin offs, and stock splits. But you do have a gold mine of what will work going forward. Little by little you could get this done as you have about 100 months and some of the stocks are the same each month.
Marsh,
Second cup of coffee and I am thinking that the study could start out using quarterly data. By using Sept., December, March and June you would really cut down the amount of work to about 35 months.
John - why don't you shoot me an email at marshgerda@outlook.com? I have an idea.
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