Weekend Update - Let Me Wake Up From This Nightmare

Weekend Update

Wow, has this been a terrible year.

How has this year been terrible?
Let me count the ways.
First there was the IPOs, with LMNS being the worst
Second there was GTAT, the inglorious b*stards
Third there was GNW, with the hole in Long Term Care and
Fourth there was $75 oil, which I actually wrote about and still got crushed.

I am now down 5.6% on the year.  That is a whopping 17% behind the index.  That is so bad, I almost want to quit this diary.  Perhaps if I just quickly read off the stocks that got crushed for me this week like the Modern Major General, I can move on to pleasanter thought, like my nice cup of coffee or the strains of Mozart in the background.

NADL, HAL, KMF, EYES, PBF, FLR, CBI & WNR.

I had one smart move. After NADL and SDRL were down 20% on Wednesday when they suspended their dividends, all other drillers were off 5 to 10%... except for PGN (which I owned). I thought, "I wonder why they are not selling off?" and so I sold them.  On Friday they were down over 20%.  I guess the HFTs forgot about them for a day.

Things Are Never So Bad They Can't Get Worse

While it is tempting to buy some of the names in the oil & gas space or the commodity space after the massacre of the past week, one must recall it can always get worse.  A name like BBEP is interesting at about $13 now as they have a lot of their future sales hedged at $90.  So the real question is "do you feel lucky?".  I am clearly not one to be giving advice until I get my house in order.

MFI Select

Like a drowning man clinging to a life vest, at least my MFI portfolios are doing pretty darned good.  Pretty much even-steven with the market for 2014, but relative to everything else, that is excellent.

2/1/14 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
ATVI	$17.13	$21.65	$0.20	27.6%	16.1%
KLAC	$61.47	$69.44	$18.40	42.9%	16.1%
RPXC	$16.22	$13.12	$0.00	-19.1%	16.1%
SNDK	$69.55	$103.46	$0.83	49.9%	16.1%
WNR	$39.11	$41.11	$1.04	7.8%	16.1%
Totals				21.8%	16.1%
5/6/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AVG	$19.57	$19.64	$0.00	0.3%	10.4%
CA	$29.54	$31.15	$0.75	8.0%	10.4%
CSCO	$22.79	$27.64	$0.38	23.0%	10.4%
NSR	$25.82	$27.25	$0.00	5.6%	10.4%
RCII	$28.78	$34.50	$0.46	21.5%	10.4%
Totals				11.7%	10.4%
8/15/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
CSCO	$24.40	$27.64	$0.19	14.1%	5.7%
AGX	$36.71	$31.77	$0.70	-11.5%	5.7%
ITRN	$21.32	$21.70	$0.19	2.7%	5.7%
BRCD	$9.34	$11.31	$0.04	21.5%	5.7%
CBI	$58.25	$50.03	$0.07	-14.0%	5.7%
Totals				2.5%	5.7%
11/15/2014	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
FLR	$64.80	$61.99	$0.00	-4.3%	1.4%
IPCM	$38.45	$44.08	$0.00	14.6%	1.4%
VIAB	$72.29	$75.63	$0.00	4.6%	1.4%
NHTC	$12.19	$13.55	$0.00	11.2%	1.4%
AWRE	$4.40	$4.41	$0.00	0.2%	1.4%
Totals				5.3%	1.4%
Category/Tranche	August	November	February	May	Total
Initial Investment	25,000	25,000	25,000	25,000	100,000
Current Tranche	2.5%	5.3%	21.8%	11.7%	10.2%
Previous Tranche	41.4%	14.2%	78.3%	33.0%	39.5%
Tranche -2	14.1%	43.7%	-	-	14.5%
MFI Overall Gain	65.4%	72.8%	117.1%	48.5%	76.0%
Current Balance	41,351	43,196	54,283	37,134	175,964
R3K Current Tranche	5.7%	1.4%	16.1%	10.4%	8.4%
R3K Overall Gain	54.2%	58.7%	40.6%	31.3%	46.2%
R3K Balance	38,560	39,670	35,144	32,823	146,198
Annualized IRR	24.6%	30.8%	52.9%	28.7%	34.9%

So three of my four tranches are leading. August briefly went ahead at the start of this week until Construction stocks CBI and AGX (along with FLR) were beaten to a pulp on Friday. 

Date	Differential	Value
12/1/2012	-2.20%	99,765
1/1/2013	-1.78%	102,798
2/1/2013	-2.26%	102,594
3/1/2013	-2.23%	102,881
4/1/2013	-0.43%	106,804
5/1/2013	2.00%	110,423
6/1/2013	4.75%	115,831
7/1/2013	4.29%	114,888
8/1/2013	6.91%	124,799
9/1/2013	10.46%	124,536
10/1/2013	19.67%	138,655
11/1/2013	19.75%	143,514
12/1/2013	23.70%	150,105
1/1/2014	26.63%	157,138
2/1/2014	24.70%	150,619
3/1/2014	25.66%	158,116
4/1/2014	30.38%	162,991
5/1/2014	29.65%	162,428
6/1/2014	31.44%	167,001
7/1/2014	39.23%	177,971
8/1/2014	31.13%	167,054
9/1/2014	35.90%	177,792
10/1/2014	29.38%	168,321
11/1/2014	26.14%	168,810
Current	29.77%	175,964

You can see November has been a solid month, both absolute and relative to benchmark.

MFI Formula

Neck and neck for these guys.  Next tranche is only a month away, better get my randomizer warmed up.

10/1/2014 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
BAH	$23.52	$27.21	$0.11	16.1%	5.2%
BKE	$45.55	$51.19	$0.22	12.9%	5.2%
CA	$27.87	$31.15	$0.25	12.7%	5.2%
GME	$41.70	$37.81	$0.33	-8.5%	5.2%
NUS	$44.56	$41.80	$0.35	-5.4%	5.2%
Totals				5.5%	5.2%

GME had horrible earnings in this horrible week.

Dividend Portfolio

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AOD	14,281	8.04	8.79	14,133.07	21.7%	26.8%	-5.1%
CSQ	8,665	9.04	11.92	16,129.75	52.5%	51.2%	1.3%
KMF	2,000	34.07	35.82	-	5.1%	10.9%	-5.8%
NADL	9,572	9.11	2.43	2,727.85	-70.2%	6.1%	-76.4%
NTC	6,879	12.02	12.60	3,842.42	9.5%	10.8%	-1.4%
O	603	21.12	46.46	9,791.02	196.9%	124.6%	72.4%
OIBAX	4,167	5.01	6.01	8,445.49	60.5%	135.4%	-75.0%
PBF	3,000	26.41	28.26	-	7.0%	1.4%	5.7%
TCMCF	4,903	13.89	10.40	1,991.00	-22.2%	3.7%	-25.8%
TGONF	7,000	10.27	10.30	4,537.50	6.6%	25.1%	-18.6%
TNH	823	144.82	126.20	3,019.94	-10.3%	6.8%	-17.1%
Total Open				64,618	4.6%	20.7%	-16.2%
Closed					11.0%	10.8%	0.2%
Combined					10.1%	12.1%	-2.0%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10					13.5%
2014 Gain					-6.7%

Down 6.7% for the year.  C'est terrible!

Discretionary/Disastrous

Can't even bear to list it this week.

Stay tuned this weekend.  The November MFI tracking portfolio hit a year, so I will write about it.