Weekend Update - Feb 16 2013

Happy weekend from Switzerland everyone!  I am going to try skiing at Engelberg  today. Looks like a perfect day to ski, so what the heck.

It was funny, yesterday I wrote about the earnings of ABR and the stocks was trading down a few cents. I had said I was pleased with the earnings as their non GAAP BV was promising and they had bumped their dividend from 11 to 12 cents.  The stock then spiked and ended the day up over 3%.

Overall, 2013 continues to be a great year for me. I was up 73 basis points on the week, while the R3K was actually down a bit.  Then I am up 8.7% on the year, versus 7.1% for the index.  My dividend portfolio is tracking the indices almost exactly, so my gain has been in my discretionary stocks and surprisingly MFI!

Dividend Portfolio

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AAPL	151	527.49	460.16	397.50	-12.3%	7.6%	-19.9%
ABR	4,500	7.18	7.70	-	7.2%	0.1%	7.1%
AOD	10,000	3.90	4.01	-	2.9%	2.2%	0.7%
BHK	2,270	12.79	14.82	3,118	26.6%	13.1%	13.5%
CIM	20,000	2.77	3.06	-	10.3%	3.1%	7.2%
CSCO	4,292	17.22	20.99	2,014	24.6%	14.7%	9.9%
CSQ	5,519	8.29	10.45	6,001	39.2%	30.5%	8.7%
FCX	1,110	32.19	35.04	344	9.8%	8.2%	1.6%
HFC	904	36.03	55.55	1,960	60.2%	11.6%	48.6%
INTC	1,995	21.00	21.12	2,443	6.4%	23.9%	-17.5%
JPM	1,684	35.29	48.88	1,494	41.0%	14.6%	26.4%
JQC	4,251	9.12	10.18	5,256	25.1%	13.9%	11.2%
KMF	1,873	22.08	33.41	4,454	62.1%	26.7%	35.4%
MPC	382	44.01	82.56	356	89.7%	12.1%	77.6%
O	560	19.51	44.46	7,564	197.0%	78.9%	118.1%
OIBAX	3,948	4.94	6.57	6,821	67.9%	79.7%	-11.7%
PGR	2,118	20.56	24.19	2,596	23.6%	12.7%	10.9%
PRE	540	67.57	85.75	1,629	31.4%	12.9%	18.4%
PVD	427	65.11	102.22	3,788	70.6%	27.1%	43.5%
SAI	4,726	12.83	12.24	1,938	-1.4%	8.3%	-9.7%
STO	1,040	23.82	25.70	1,121	12.4%	29.6%	-17.2%
Total Open				53,294	25.9%	16.2%	9.7%
Closed					12.3%	9.8%	2.5%
Combined					15.9%	11.6%	4.4%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10					17.4%
2013 Gain					7.2%

Estimated Dividends for Next 12 Months
Stock	Shares	Ann Dividend / Share	Yield	Projected Dividend	Sector
AAPL	151	$      10.80	2.3%	1,634	Consumer
ABR	4,500	$        0.44	5.7%	1,980	Real Estate
AOD	10,000	$        0.32	8.1%	3,240	Utility
BHK	2,270	$        0.88	5.9%	1,988	Bond
CIM	20,000	$        0.36	11.8%	7,200	Real Estate
CSCO	4,292	$        0.56	2.7%	2,404	Tech
CSQ	5,519	$        0.84	8.0%	4,636	Hybrid
FCX	1,110	$        1.25	3.6%	1,387	Resources
HFC	904	$        1.40	2.5%	1,266	Resources
INTC	1,995	$        0.90	4.3%	1,796	Tech
JPM	1,684	$        1.20	2.5%	2,020	Finance
JQC	4,251	$        0.80	7.9%	3,401	Hybrid
KMF	1,873	$        1.77	5.3%	3,316	Pipelines
MPC	382	$        1.40	1.7%	535	Resources
O	560	$        2.17	4.9%	1,216	Services
OIBAX	3,948	$        0.29	4.4%	1,145	Bond
PGR	2,118	$        0.41	1.7%	869	Insurance
PRE	540	$        2.56	3.0%	1,382	Insurance
PVD	427	$        7.65	7.5%	3,266	Finance
SAI	4,726	$        0.48	3.9%	2,269	Services
STO	1,040	$        0.98	3.8%	1,019	Resources
Total			4.7%	47,968

Upcoming Dividends
Stock	Shares	x Date	Div/Share	Est New Shares	Amount
MSFT	730	2/19/13	$         0.23	5.0	168
MPC	382	2/19/13	$         0.35	1.0	134
AOD	10,000	2/19/13	$         0.03	67.0	270
CA	798	2/19/13	$         0.25	7.0	200
NUS	477	2/19/13	$         0.30	3.0	143
CSCO	4,292	2/27/13	$         0.14	28.0	601
OIBAX	3,948	2/28/13	$         0.02	12.0	83
O	560	2/28/13	$         0.18	2.0	101
ABR	4,500	3/1/13	$         0.12	70.0	540
LPS	840	3/4/13	$         0.10	3.0	84
HFC	904	3/4/13	$         0.20	3.0	181

MFI Portfolio

8/15 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
DLB	$34.43	$31.73	$4.00	3.8%	10.6%
KFY	$13.98	$18.74	$0.00	34.0%	10.6%
MSFT	$30.19	$28.01	$0.23	-6.5%	10.6%
NSU	$3.62	$3.79	$0.05	6.2%	10.6%
UIS	$19.96	$24.31	$0.00	21.8%	10.6%
Totals				11.9%	10.6%
11/15 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$537.62	$460.16	$2.65	-13.9%	14.0%
ABC	$40.21	$46.60	$0.21	16.4%	14.0%
LPS	$23.89	$25.09	$0.10	5.4%	14.0%
VIAB	$49.12	$59.46	$0.28	21.6%	14.0%
WU	$12.77	$14.40	$0.13	13.7%	14.0%
Totals				8.7%	14.0%
2/1 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$450.60	$460.16	$2.65	2.7%	0.9%
GA	$6.10	$6.13	$0.00	0.5%	0.9%
STRZA	$16.06	$18.74	$0.00	16.7%	0.9%
CA	$25.07	$25.05	$0.00	-0.1%	0.9%
NUS	$41.94	$41.27	$0.00	-1.6%	0.9%
Totals				3.6%	0.9%

Open Discretionary

For my discretionary stocks, I sold GTAT yesterday for a 4.5% gain since I bought them in early January.  I expect I will in the end either be very happy or very disappointed with that sale. So GNW is now my only discretionary stock left.

Finally, I mentioned that I am trying a little momentum trading (just one small position) based on discussions at Ed's Talking Stock group.  It has done ok, but so far I would have been better just to have been in R3K so far in 2013. I do include transactional costs in this portfolio due to active trading nature. I am glad I did not just hold NUGT as it is now $6.82.

My Talking Ed Performance

Date	Starting Balance	Stock	Shares	Buy	Sell	Gain/Loss	Ending Balance	Cumulative Change
10/18/12	25,000	DUST	1,000	$25.32	$26.69	1,358	26,358	5.4%
12/5/12	26,358	UCO	700	$26.40	$26.49	47	26,405	5.6%
12/11/12	26,405	UCO	700	$26.17	$26.88	479	26,884	7.5%
12/13/12	26,884	NUGT	2,500	$10.79	$10.85	149	27,033	8.1%
12/20/12	27,033	NUGT	2,000	$9.34	$9.97	1,240	28,273	13.1%
12/26/12	28,273	SCO	450	$41.14	$41.26	38	28,311	13.2%
1/3/13	28,311	NUGT	2,200	$10.14	$10.19	98	28,410	13.6%
1/9/13	28,410	SCO	600	$39.46	$38.84	(388)	28,022	12.1%
1/23/13	28,022	VECO	800	$33.27	$32.85	(355)	27,667	10.7%
1/29/13	27,667	NUGT	2,000	$8.09	$8.23	264	27,931	11.7%
1/31/13	27,931	NUGT	3,000	$7.76	$7.87	325	28,255	13.0%
2/13/13	28,255	SD	4,000	$5.74	$5.90	624	28,879	15.5%