Saturday, February 16, 2013

Weekend Update - Feb 16 2013

Happy weekend from Switzerland everyone!  I am going to try skiing at Engelberg  today. Looks like a perfect day to ski, so what the heck.

It was funny, yesterday I wrote about the earnings of ABR and the stocks was trading down a few cents. I had said I was pleased with the earnings as their non GAAP BV was promising and they had bumped their dividend from 11 to 12 cents.  The stock then spiked and ended the day up over 3%.

Overall, 2013 continues to be a great year for me. I was up 73 basis points on the week, while the R3K was actually down a bit.  Then I am up 8.7% on the year, versus 7.1% for the index.  My dividend portfolio is tracking the indices almost exactly, so my gain has been in my discretionary stocks and surprisingly MFI!

Dividend Portfolio

Stock Shares Avg Cost Current Price Dividends Received Pct Change R3K Change Diff
AAPL             151        527.49        460.16            397.50 -12.3% 7.6% -19.9%
ABR         4,500            7.18             7.70                     -   7.2% 0.1% 7.1%
AOD       10,000            3.90             4.01                     -   2.9% 2.2% 0.7%
BHK         2,270          12.79           14.82              3,118 26.6% 13.1% 13.5%
CIM       20,000            2.77             3.06                     -   10.3% 3.1% 7.2%
CSCO         4,292          17.22           20.99              2,014 24.6% 14.7% 9.9%
CSQ         5,519            8.29           10.45              6,001 39.2% 30.5% 8.7%
FCX         1,110          32.19           35.04                  344 9.8% 8.2% 1.6%
HFC             904          36.03           55.55              1,960 60.2% 11.6% 48.6%
INTC         1,995          21.00           21.12              2,443 6.4% 23.9% -17.5%
JPM         1,684          35.29           48.88              1,494 41.0% 14.6% 26.4%
JQC         4,251            9.12           10.18              5,256 25.1% 13.9% 11.2%
KMF         1,873          22.08           33.41              4,454 62.1% 26.7% 35.4%
MPC             382          44.01           82.56                  356 89.7% 12.1% 77.6%
O             560          19.51           44.46              7,564 197.0% 78.9% 118.1%
OIBAX         3,948            4.94             6.57              6,821 67.9% 79.7% -11.7%
PGR         2,118          20.56           24.19              2,596 23.6% 12.7% 10.9%
PRE             540          67.57           85.75              1,629 31.4% 12.9% 18.4%
PVD             427          65.11        102.22              3,788 70.6% 27.1% 43.5%
SAI         4,726          12.83           12.24              1,938 -1.4% 8.3% -9.7%
STO         1,040          23.82           25.70              1,121 12.4% 29.6% -17.2%
           
           
           
           
           
           
           
Total Open            53,294 25.9% 16.2% 9.7%
Closed 12.3% 9.8% 2.5%
Combined 15.9% 11.6% 4.4%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10 17.4%
2013 Gain 7.2%

Estimated Dividends for Next 12 Months
Stock Shares Ann Dividend / Share Yield Projected Dividend Sector
AAPL             151  $      10.80 2.3%              1,634 Consumer
ABR         4,500  $        0.44 5.7%              1,980 Real Estate
AOD       10,000  $        0.32 8.1%              3,240 Utility
BHK         2,270  $        0.88 5.9%              1,988 Bond
CIM       20,000  $        0.36 11.8%              7,200 Real Estate
CSCO         4,292  $        0.56 2.7%              2,404 Tech
CSQ         5,519  $        0.84 8.0%              4,636 Hybrid
FCX         1,110  $        1.25 3.6%              1,387 Resources
HFC             904  $        1.40 2.5%              1,266 Resources
INTC         1,995  $        0.90 4.3%              1,796 Tech
JPM         1,684  $        1.20 2.5%              2,020 Finance
JQC         4,251  $        0.80 7.9%              3,401 Hybrid
KMF         1,873  $        1.77 5.3%              3,316 Pipelines
MPC             382  $        1.40 1.7%                  535 Resources
O             560  $        2.17 4.9%              1,216 Services
OIBAX         3,948  $        0.29 4.4%              1,145 Bond
PGR         2,118  $        0.41 1.7%                  869 Insurance
PRE             540  $        2.56 3.0%              1,382 Insurance
PVD             427  $        7.65 7.5%              3,266 Finance
SAI         4,726  $        0.48 3.9%              2,269 Services
STO         1,040  $        0.98 3.8%              1,019 Resources
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
        
Total 4.7%                      47,968

Upcoming Dividends
Stock Shares x Date Div/Share Est New Shares Amount
MSFT             730 2/19/13  $         0.23                   5.0            168
MPC             382 2/19/13  $         0.35                   1.0            134
AOD       10,000 2/19/13  $         0.03                67.0            270
CA             798 2/19/13  $         0.25                   7.0            200
NUS             477 2/19/13  $         0.30                   3.0            143
CSCO         4,292 2/27/13  $         0.14                28.0            601
OIBAX         3,948 2/28/13  $         0.02                12.0               83
O             560 2/28/13  $         0.18                   2.0            101
ABR         4,500 3/1/13  $         0.12                70.0            540
LPS             840 3/4/13  $         0.10                   3.0               84
HFC             904 3/4/13  $         0.20                   3.0            181

MFI Portfolio

8/15 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
DLB $34.43 $31.73 $4.00 3.8% 10.6%
KFY $13.98 $18.74 $0.00 34.0% 10.6%
MSFT $30.19 $28.01 $0.23 -6.5% 10.6%
NSU $3.62 $3.79 $0.05 6.2% 10.6%
UIS $19.96 $24.31 $0.00 21.8% 10.6%
Totals 11.9% 10.6%
11/15 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $537.62 $460.16 $2.65 -13.9% 14.0%
ABC $40.21 $46.60 $0.21 16.4% 14.0%
LPS $23.89 $25.09 $0.10 5.4% 14.0%
VIAB $49.12 $59.46 $0.28 21.6% 14.0%
WU $12.77 $14.40 $0.13 13.7% 14.0%
Totals 8.7% 14.0%
2/1 Stocks Start Current Dividend Pct Gain R3K Gain
AAPL $450.60 $460.16 $2.65 2.7% 0.9%
GA $6.10 $6.13 $0.00 0.5% 0.9%
STRZA $16.06 $18.74 $0.00 16.7% 0.9%
CA $25.07 $25.05 $0.00 -0.1% 0.9%
NUS $41.94 $41.27 $0.00 -1.6% 0.9%
Totals 3.6% 0.9%

Open Discretionary

For my discretionary stocks, I sold GTAT yesterday for a 4.5% gain since I bought them in early January.  I expect I will in the end either be very happy or very disappointed with that sale. So GNW is now my only discretionary stock left.

Finally, I mentioned that I am trying a little momentum trading (just one small position) based on discussions at Ed's Talking Stock group.  It has done ok, but so far I would have been better just to have been in R3K so far in 2013. I do include transactional costs in this portfolio due to active trading nature. I am glad I did not just hold NUGT as it is now $6.82.

My Talking Ed Performance

Date Starting Balance Stock Shares Buy Sell Gain/Loss Ending Balance Cumulative Change
10/18/12        25,000 DUST 1,000 $25.32 $26.69       1,358      26,358 5.4%
12/5/12        26,358 UCO 700 $26.40 $26.49            47      26,405 5.6%
12/11/12        26,405 UCO 700 $26.17 $26.88          479      26,884 7.5%
12/13/12        26,884 NUGT 2,500 $10.79 $10.85          149      27,033 8.1%
12/20/12        27,033 NUGT 2,000 $9.34 $9.97       1,240      28,273 13.1%
12/26/12        28,273 SCO 450 $41.14 $41.26            38      28,311 13.2%
1/3/13        28,311 NUGT 2,200 $10.14 $10.19            98      28,410 13.6%
1/9/13        28,410 SCO 600 $39.46 $38.84         (388)      28,022 12.1%
1/23/13        28,022 VECO 800 $33.27 $32.85         (355)      27,667 10.7%
1/29/13        27,667 NUGT 2,000 $8.09 $8.23          264      27,931 11.7%
1/31/13        27,931 NUGT 3,000 $7.76 $7.87          325      28,255 13.0%
2/13/13        28,255 SD 4,000 $5.74 $5.90          624      28,879 15.5%

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