Another Week in the Books

Everything continues to just motor along so smoothly.  I have been investing long enough, that I know there can be some spills.  But I am really not worried.  I like my portfolio.  It has the defensive quality in that if/when the market corrects, I will simply buy more shares more cheaply.  I do not think I have stocks that will be at risk in a downturn, as I try to stay away from debt-laden firms.

That being said,  I do have a simple bear flag in my workbook I look at daily.  If parts of it turn bearish AND I see the Decision Moose move to cash, gold or bonds, that will be my signal to cut my holdings 40 to 50%.

Here is my flag:

Bear Flag
MDY 50 EMA	MDY 200 EMA	Difference
193.51	182.38	6.1%
SPY 50 EMA	SPY 200 EMA	Difference
147.15	143.13	2.8%
IWV 50 EMA	IWV 200 EMA	Difference
87.49	84.60	3.4%

I know my approach will not allow me to get out at the "top", but that is never what I am about.  I am about "getting rich slowly" and preservation of capital, which means try to avoid the BIG one.  
Otherwise, I will enjoy the rising tide.

Speaking of tide, I am now 7.85% YTD. The annualized IRR on my dividend portfolio since I started it is a snappy 17.5%.  Even AAPL seems to be finding it's mojo again.  Here is my dividend portfolio:

Stock	Shares	Avg Cost	Current Price	Dividends Received	Pct Change	R3K Change	Diff
AAPL	151	527.47	475.03	397.50	-9.4%	7.3%	-16.7%
AOD	10,000	3.90	4.04	-	3.7%	1.8%	1.8%
BHK	2,259	12.78	15.34	2,861	30.0%	12.9%	17.1%
CIM	15,000	2.67	3.05	-	14.0%	3.9%	10.0%
CSCO	4,292	17.22	21.18	2,014	25.7%	14.4%	11.4%
CSQ	5,519	8.29	10.49	6,001	39.7%	30.1%	9.6%
FCX	1,110	32.19	35.65	344	11.7%	7.9%	3.8%
HFC	904	36.03	56.25	1,960	62.1%	11.3%	50.9%
INTC	1,995	20.99	21.04	2,443	6.0%	23.5%	-17.4%
JPM	1,684	35.29	48.69	1,494	40.5%	14.2%	26.3%
JQC	4,222	9.12	10.15	4,945	24.2%	13.7%	10.5%
KMF	1,873	22.08	31.85	4,454	55.0%	26.3%	28.7%
MPC	382	44.01	81.47	356	87.2%	11.8%	75.5%
O	561	19.51	43.20	7,564	190.6%	78.3%	112.2%
OIBAX	3,948	4.94	6.56	6,821	67.7%	79.1%	-11.4%
PGR	2,118	20.56	23.42	2,596	19.8%	12.4%	7.5%
PRE	536	67.43	88.61	1,286	35.0%	12.7%	22.3%
PVD	427	65.11	101.85	3,788	70.1%	26.7%	43.4%
SAI	4,726	12.83	12.04	1,938	-2.9%	8.0%	-10.9%
SLCA	2,062	14.34	20.03	1,000	43.1%	5.8%	37.3%
STO	1,040	23.82	26.30	1,121	15.0%	29.2%	-14.2%
VIVHY	2,296	16.70	21.02	3,749	35.6%	11.2%	24.4%
Total Open				57,132	27.9%	16.0%	11.9%
Closed					11.5%	9.7%	1.8%
Combined					16.1%	11.5%	4.6%
Annualized IRR Since 12/31/10					17.4%
2013 Gain					6.8%

Stock	Shares	Ann Dividend / Share	Yield	Projected Dividend
AAPL	151	$      10.80	2.3%	1,634
AOD	10,000	$        0.32	8.0%	3,240
BHK	2,259	$        0.88	5.7%	1,979
CIM	15,000	$        0.36	11.8%	5,400
CSCO	4,292	$        0.56	2.6%	2,404
CSQ	5,519	$        0.84	8.0%	4,636
FCX	1,110	$        1.25	3.5%	1,387
HFC	904	$        1.40	2.5%	1,266
INTC	1,995	$        0.90	4.3%	1,796
JPM	1,684	$        1.20	2.5%	2,020
JQC	4,222	$        0.80	7.9%	3,378
KMF	1,873	$        1.77	5.6%	3,316
MPC	382	$        1.40	1.7%	535
O	561	$        2.17	5.0%	1,216
OIBAX	3,948	$        0.29	4.4%	1,145
PGR	2,118	$        0.41	1.8%	869
PRE	536	$        2.56	2.9%	1,372
PVD	427	$        7.65	7.5%	3,266
SAI	4,726	$        0.48	4.0%	2,269
SLCA	2,062	$        0.50	2.5%	1,031
STO	1,040	$        0.98	3.7%	1,019
VIVHY	2,296	$        1.30	6.2%	2,985
Total			4.6%	48,161

Here are upcoming dividends...I will be lining my pockets in February!

Stock	Shares	x Date	Div/Share	Est New Shares	Amount
JQC	4,222	2/12/13	$         0.07	27.0	282
BHK	2,259	2/12/13	$         0.07	9.0	151
PRE	536	2/15/13	$         0.64	3.0	343
ABC	500	2/15/13	$         0.21	2.0	105
MSFT	730	2/19/13	$         0.23	6.0	168
MPC	382	2/19/13	$         0.35	1.0	134
AOD	10,000	2/19/13	$         0.03	66.0	270
CA	798	2/19/13	$         0.25	7.0	200
NUS	477	2/19/13	$         0.20	2.0	95
CSCO	4,292	2/27/13	$         0.14	28.0	601
OIBAX	3,948	2/28/13	$         0.02	12.0	83

Then here are my MFI stocks, they are gaining traction:

8/15 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
DLB	$34.43	$31.74	$4.00	3.8%	10.3%
KFY	$13.98	$17.85	$0.00	27.7%	10.3%
MSFT	$30.19	$27.55	$0.23	-8.0%	10.3%
NSU	$3.62	$4.01	$0.05	12.3%	10.3%
UIS	$19.96	$24.43	$0.00	22.4%	10.3%
Totals				11.7%	10.3%
11/15 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$537.62	$474.98	$2.65	-11.2%	13.7%
ABC	$40.21	$46.89	$0.00	16.6%	13.7%
LPS	$23.89	$25.40	$0.10	6.7%	13.7%
VIAB	$49.12	$59.28	$0.28	21.2%	13.7%
WU	$12.77	$14.66	$0.13	15.8%	13.7%
Totals				9.9%	13.7%
2/1 Stocks	Start	Current	Dividend	Pct Gain	R3K Gain
AAPL	$450.60	$474.98	$2.65	6.0%	0.6%
GA	$6.10	$6.19	$0.00	1.5%	0.6%
STRZA	$16.06	$16.67	$0.00	3.8%	0.6%
CA	$25.07	$25.02	$0.00	-0.2%	0.6%
NUS	$41.94	$41.86	$0.00	-0.2%	0.6%
Totals				2.2%	0.6%