Saturday, August 19, 2006

Just the Facts

As a numbers guy, guess what? I enjoy looking at numbers! So I decided to crunch some numbers today, because that is who I am. Overall, I am now down 5.5%. Better than the near 10% I was down a few weeks ago, but it is unlikely I'll be in the green at my 6 month anniversary.

I thought it'd be interesting to cut the numbers by month of purchase. My February purchases are actually $9 in the black. Woo-hoo! June/July purchases have been a disaster, as Warren Buffett once said, "I would have been better served just going to the movies".

Month Cost Current Gain
Feb 59,275 59,284 0.0%
Mar 39,869 39,031 -2.1%
Apr 40,661 36,402 -10.5%
May 119,686 117,338 -2.0%
June/July 55,018 46,566 -15.4%

I was surprised that May wasn't more of a disaster, but it was helped by my 2 week gain on NCOG.

Here is the table of overall results:

Stock Cost Current Gain
NCOG $19.39 $27.05 39.5%
UST $39.36 $51.68 34.2%
MGLN $38.34 $46.50 21.3%
PCU $78.13 $89.81 21.0%
FTO $28.76 $33.99 18.3%
TRLG $17.02 $20.13 18.3%
MTEX $13.11 $14.02 7.6%
NSS $45.89 $48.20 5.0%
ANF $61.13 $63.77 4.6%
PGI $7.71 $8.01 3.9%
CHKE $37.55 $38.03 2.9%
RAIL $58.18 $59.13 1.6%
TGIS $10.34 $10.30 0.8%
MSTR $94.36 $93.18 -1.3%
PTEN $27.74 $27.05 -2.2%
KG $17.31 $16.44 -5.0%
FDG $34.03 $30.10 -8.9%
ISNS $13.17 $11.88 -9.8%
ELX $17.85 $15.84 -11.3%
PNCL $6.68 $5.89 -11.8%
PACR $32.53 $28.20 -12.4%
IVII $10.93 $9.02 -17.5%
TBL $34.50 $27.11 -21.4%
EZEN $2.84 $2.21 -22.0%
ORCT $11.83 $9.21 -22.1%
PONR $32.97 $24.66 -25.2%
DLX $26.36 $17.39 -31.6%
OVTI $27.79 $18.54 -33.3%
PTSC $1.31 $0.85 -35.5%
HW $37.42 $22.31 -40.4%




Total Gain/Loss
-$15,888
Benchmark Gain/Loss
$3,398
Annual IRR

-15.3%
% Gain/Loss

-5.53%

I have to say that I am starting to watch EZEN closely. It is down 21% to $2.20. While their earnings were just ok, they were not a disaster. The big item I noted was a 64% increase in orders over 2q2005. So I think the future is brighter than the mere 9% growth they had in Q o Q revenues. Next week, I will likely shift some of my floating non MFI IRA funds over to EZEN.
I am also watching ISNS closely. They had a really good earning report and jumped about $1.00 to $13.60. Since then they have drifted back to $11.88. That is their lowest close since April. They did settle a lawsuit with a distributor, perhaps that is part of cause for the drop?

UST has really been solid for me, up about 34% in under 6 months. It spiked some yesterday (I suppose) because of positive court ruling on big Tobacco (MO went up a bunch). Makes me kicj myself for selling MO around $72 a few months ago, would have been a great ballast stock in the past turbulent quarter.

Have a great weekend everyone!

3 comments:

Erik Hochstein said...

Hi There -- as I said in another comment - I got to your blog through the MFI Yahoo group - I am posting there as Defender --

Wanted to try to figure something out -- we have both been buying MFI stocks since Feb and we both have almost the exact same number of stocks -- but our overlap is VERY small -- I think only 4 stocks at the moment !!

Is that normal -- or are we using other "filters" after starting with the MFI list ??

Marsh_Gerda said...

That surprises me, do your results mirror mine or are you doing better?

Erik Hochstein said...

Check my blog for my current returns -- it looks a little better than yours, but in the end it is just the difference of picking one good stock over an average one or one bad stock.