Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Riddikulus!

Either I am just plain stupid (not impossible) or the market is sometimes clueless.

  • PNCL - down another 10 cents today to $5.74. This company has been making regular quarterly profits of 60 cents. That means in 10 quarters they would pay for themselves.
  • ISNS - down another 24 cents to $11.52. They are growning about 30% annually and trade at about 10x earnings.
  • PONR - had a bit of a drag on earnings due to plant being closed. But all is well now, yet stock is mired at $24.40, just 4.6x trailing earnings. Trading at "40% discount to peers".

I could go on. These stocks are like coiled springs. They will bounce.

It was actually a decent day, despite my marginal whining. I did read the weekly Jubak article with some interest today (Fed Votes for Stagflation). He basically says that we could tumble into 1970s-style stagflation (low growth and high inflation for those of you not born then). Let us just say it was a tough stretch to get rich.

As I have said many times, Jubak is a bright guy... not a Chicken Little-type. So it would be foolish to ignore. Cramer was saying kind of the same thing last night. So this information begs the prudent question, "what should a rational investor do?".

For the MFI portfolio, the easy answer is "nothing". But it really isn't that easy. Even if you believe in MFI, should you be picking different types of MFI stocks if you think we're heading into turbulent waters? And if so, what types of stocks?

  • Commodites?
  • Pharmaceuticals?
  • Food/Beverages?
  • Larger Cap?
  • High dividends?

Certainly something to think about. And then my non-MFI portfolio? I remember the 70s. Gold did really well. Should I be buying gold? Financial stocks? Part of me thinks that some Berkshire Hathaway might be prudent. Mr Buffett has a lot of cash and a lot of smarts. In turbulent waters, it might be comforting to have him at the helm. Or maybe I should be thinking about demographics, and buying stocks poised to do well as the Baby Boomers move into their "golden" years.

So many questions.

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