Plop, Plop, Fizz, Fizz

Sometimes I wonder if I have the stomach to invest in individual stocks. I get so emotional. It isn't that I can't sleep at night, that would be a serious problem. But rather I feel that stocks or at times the markets betray me. We all crave loyalty don't we? It is a little OT, but I was so disapponted with the DRYS earnings last night (DryShips Inc. Reports Second Quarter and First Half 2006 Results). The shipping rate indices have shot up like a rocket, yet DRYS made 53 cents a share compared with 64 cents the previous quarter. The 53 cents was before a 13 cent charge for restructuring their debt.

I dug deeper. They give a list of how all their fleet is deployed and I had a little history, so I wanted to see how their daily rate was changing. Perhaps a lot of the increases were post June 30th. Not so. In February they were getting about $25,000 per day. It then dropped to 21,600 per day. As of Aug 30 it is $22,400. Blech.

Q: If actual rates have gone up so much, how come DRYS isn't realizing the increase?
A: They haven't managed their fleet well.

So I sold today at $13.67. I made an 8% gain in a week, so it is hard to whine. But I wanted this to be a LT holding. I just didn't have the stomach for it. Now where did I put my Alka-Seltzer?

On a + note, ANF had a 6% increase in SSS for Aug and an overall increase of 22%. Very nice. In basically a month (since July 27th when I went on vacation), ANF has gone from $50.90 to $65.00, about a 28% gain.

CHKE went x-div yesterday, another 60 cents per share safe in my pocket. You gotta wonder whether the div will be reduced. They don't seem to make enough $ to pay the div. The projection is to earn 58 cents this quarter and 40 cents in October. How can they pay me 60 cents? (granted their business is seasonal). Looking at analyst estimates (and we know how accurate those are) they project CHKE earning $3.00 per share for the year ending January 2007 and then dropping 50% to $2.20 for January 2008... I wonder why? Revenues are projected to increase moderately. I suspect some analyst has misplaced a decimal poi.nt

Midday thoughts. Modest up day for my MFI portfolio as I continue to gain some ground on the benchmark & breakeven. Hopefully this won't jinx me, but it has been a solid week. BB talks today, so I guess the market leaders are waiting to hear what he says. I gotta believe that the rate tightening this cycle is done, but I am wrong all the time.

The day is over. I await the earnings release for OVTI. Post-mortem... I pulled the trigger too quickly on DRYS. It steadily went up over the course of the day. That is where emotions will get ya. I almost bought BBSI as my 29th stock today. It was down about 2% and they do have a very good story to tell. But I waited. September is traditionally a bad month and I want to see if anything goes on sale post Labor Day. Instead I bought some more LPMA. I just could not stand the fact that the company is being sold for $29 in 2 months and is trading under $25. On their own merits they are worth $25, so I don't see much downside. Their prospective owner (PAY) announces their earnings tonight.

In the Boy am I Stupid Category - I was skimming some of my past postings. In the Loser posting (Loser Strategy) I mentioned four approaches to deciding which losers to sell at year-end. One of the approaches was "My Preference" meaning no rules, I just decided which stocks to sell. Of course the stock at the top of my list was IVII! Amazing that I make any money at all in my investments, my instincts are really rotten.