Saturday, June 03, 2006

Thinking Small

Great debate on the Yahoo Groups Board about MFI and small cap stocks. As I mentioned in an earlier Blog, JG doesn't directly say that small caps outperform, but he infers it with his data. Of course everyone is licking their chops over PTSC, which has doubled within a week (I wonder if it is still a good buy)? I can understand people's excitement... who would not want a one week double? This all misses the point though, MFI is really an approach to "get rich slowly".
I have always made stock lists with market caps greater than $50m and have not bought anything less than $100m. I will begin considering microcaps, but am not sure I will be able to pull the trigger. Right now, seven of my 25 stocks are under $500m (if RAIL keeps tanking it'll soon be eight).

I have the current MFI list of 25 best stocks at $1m Market Cap and greater:

Top 25 companies with a minimum market cap. of $1 million
Companies are listed in alphabetical order
Name (in alphabetical order) Ticker Market Cap
($ Millions)
Pre Tax
Earnings Yield
Pre Tax
Return on Capital
Price
From
Most Recent
Quarter Data
Auto Data Network Inc ADNW 19.43 54% > 100% 06/01 11/30
Cutera Inc CUTR 224.18 12% > 100% 06/01 03/31
Deluxe Corp DLX 1,106.58 13% > 100% 06/01 03/31
EarthLink Inc ELNK 1,124.96 16% > 100% 06/01 03/31
Ezenia Inc EZEN 46.06 10% > 100% 06/01 03/31
Footstar Inc. FTAR 104.51 101% > 100% 06/01 12/31
Fording Canadian Coal Trust FDG 5,228.79 15% > 100% 06/01 03/31
Forward Industries Inc FORD 40.17 43% > 100% 06/01 03/31
FreightCar America Inc RAIL 708.45 17% > 100% 06/01 03/31
Intervideo Inc IVII 148.76 17% > 100% 06/01 03/31
King Pharmaceuticals Inc. KG 4,279.62 16% > 100% 06/01 03/31
Mannatech Inc MTEX 372.55 14% > 100% 06/01 03/31
Marvel Entertainment Inc MVL 1,559.24 10% > 100% 06/01 03/31
Orckit Communications Ltd ORCT 188.28 10% > 100% 06/01 03/31
Patriot Scientific Corp PTSC 356.32 19% > 100% 06/01 02/28
Pinnacle Airlines Corp PNCL 154.57 41% > 100% 06/01 03/31
PortalPlayer Inc PLAY 256.70 70% > 100% 06/01 03/31
Syneron Medical Ltd ELOS 440.75 14% > 100% 06/01 03/31
Ulticom Inc ULCM 408.02 12% > 100% 06/01 10/31
United Online Inc UNTD 769.55 13% > 100% 06/01 03/31
Vaalco Energy Inc EGY 416.48 18% > 100% 06/01 03/31
Vertrue Inc VTRU 395.13 10% > 100% 06/01 03/31
ViroPharma Inc VPHM 679.71 16% > 100% 06/01 03/31
World Air Holdings Inc WLDA 223.65 28% > 100% 06/01 09/30
Zenex International Inc. ZENX 77.98 22% > 100% 06/01 12/31

Stop here if you don't want to read gory financial and mathematical details.

Now I need to comment on the fact that TGIS has mysteriously disappeared off the MFI list. I did some research today to try to see if they just didn't deserve to be on the list any more. The first ratio to calculate is the earning yield = EBIT / Enterprise Value.

I went to the SEC filings and EBIT for the 12 months ending 2/28/06 was $11.3m. (I excluded $1.2m of losses from discontinued ops, not 100% sure if that is right).

Enterprise value as far as I can tell is market cap adjusted for long term debt and cash. That = $109m. So the Earning Yield = 10.4%.

The second component is return on capital. The denominator is the same EBIT of $11.3m. The numerator is "tangible capital employed" which = net working capital + net fixed assets. Net working capital = receivables + inventories - non interest bearing current liabilities. For TGIS I get about $5.7m. That makes the ROC a very strong 198%. By my calculation, this should place TGIS on the list.

Digging further though, Yahoo Finance shows n/a for the Enterprise Value (Key Statistics). Looking at a Reuters InvestPro Report for TGIS at 2/28/06 the balance sheet does not split the liabilities into the various values, which would make the calculations impossible. My hypothesis is that the MFI database for TGIS also has these n/a values and that is why it gets tossed. But I went to the source, the filed 10Q with the SEC to get my liability values, which balanced in total with the Reuters InvestPro, but had the necessary detail. I know I am rambling, but this is the procedure I went through to convince my self that TGIS is still an MFI stock.

Just for grins (and practice), I did the calculations for ORCT, the stock I just bought:
Enterprise Value: $147.5m
EBIT: $22m
Net Working Capital: Less than 0 (not sure I understand this, but recievables + inventory = $4.3m and then current liabilities = $42.3m).
Net Fixed Assets = $3.6m.

So Earning Yield = 22m / 147.5m = 15%.
ROC = > 100% I suppose as the denominator is negative. Hmmm, the MFI listing shows a 10% earning yield. I don't see where I have gone wrong. Any comments are welcome.

I will try one more company, RAIL.
Enterprise Value: $610m
EBIT: $101m (Yahoo has $113m but I can't get there)
Net Working Capital: -18m (like ORCT)
Net Fixed Assets: $66m
So Earning Yield = $101m / 610m = 17% (hooray, I matched MFI)
ROC = 101m / 48m = 210% which matches >100%.

I feel better, hope you do as well.

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