Friday, June 02, 2006

ORCT = 25

Okay, I am weak... I admit it. I bought one more MFI stock today, Orckit Communications (ORCT). I bought it for several reasons (I am rationalizing to myself, I know I don't have to answer to you):
  1. The stock has been absolutely hammered. It is down since April 21st from $22.07 to $12.16. The 52 week high is even more stratospheric at $31.22.
  2. It was hammered because there is some uncertainty in the timing of some sales in Japan because of major changes in Japanese tele-communications market.
  3. They are in a great industry. If you have products (like Video-on-demand) that can help the Telecoms compete with Cable, you should be successful.
  4. My previous posting I commented that small/micro caps is where we can really be successful and this is a $187m company.

All the bad news should be priced into the stock. Any new customers, closure on the Japanese sales etc should drive the stock back towards $20. And I can wait.

Off Track: RAIL is trying to set new marks for futility. It dropped another 72 cents today which makes it having dropped 15 of the past 16 trading sessions... good thing we had a holiday this week! It is down more than 30% in that stretch. So far as I can tell, there is no "bad" news rather just negative sentiment. If anything positive happens, such as a lrage order for more coal cars, the stock should quickly move back into the 60s.

Here is my portfolio summary:

Stock Cost Current Gain
NCOG $19.39 $27.05 39.5%
PCU $78.13 $86.96 14.8%
UST $39.36 $44.12 13.5%
PTEN $27.74 $31.32 13.0%
NSS $45.89 $51.04 11.2%
MGLN $38.34 $41.71 8.8%
OVTI $28.50 $30.84 8.2%
CHKE $37.55 $38.94 5.3%
MTEX $13.11 $13.58 3.6%
PNCL $6.68 $6.80 1.8%
FDG $34.90 $35.48 1.7%
MSTR $94.36 $95.84 1.6%
PGI $7.71 $7.82 1.4%
ORCT $12.17 $12.16 -0.1%
FTO $57.52 $57.02 -0.9%
ELX $17.85 $17.52 -1.8%
IVII $10.93 $10.50 -3.9%
KG $17.60 $16.79 -4.6%
TGIS $10.65 $10.14 -4.8%
ANF $61.13 $58.01 -4.8%
PACR $32.53 $30.59 -5.5%
RAIL $60.94 $55.39 -9.1%
PONR $32.97 $29.41 -10.8%
DLX $26.36 $21.55 -16.7%
TBL $34.50 $27.93 -19.0%
HW $37.42 $26.91 -28.1%








Total Gain/Loss
$1,178
Benchmark Gain/Loss
$363
Annual IRR

3.4%

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